Phil Kerpen Profile picture
13 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
This study found live, replication-capable virus in only 31% of PCR positives, with PCR-positive children half as likely as PCR-positive adults to have live virus.

Why are we still using poorly calibrated EUA tests???

cmaj.ca/content/early/…
This table show sensitivity and specificity for children by cycle threshold.

A cutoff of 23 would capture 97.2% of infectious positives.

The 35+ CT "positives" we include are less than 4% likely to be replication-capable.
Same table for adults.
ICYMI, this study found just 19% of PCR "positives" in children under 10 have actual replication-capable virus. In children 11 to 17 it's just 23%. For adults 44%.

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More from @kerpen

13 Apr
A rare side effect seen with all the vaccines, but a pause only for the one from the family company of Trump's UK ambassador. It's not great optics.
VAERS results for "DVT" or "thrombosis." Image
The great @foogatwo got the same numbers from VAERS that I did, so I did the search right.

And she helpfully divided by doses.

Read 4 tweets
11 Apr
Schools update from @BurbioCalendar:

% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 12.2% (from 14.4% last week)
% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 59.4% (from 55.3%)
% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 28.4% (from 30.3%)
Only 2.5% of school districts are now virtual-only, but they hold 12.2% of all students.
K-5 Students:

9% attending virtual-only schools (from 11.3% last week)
23.5% attending schools offering hybrid (from 24.8%)
67.5% attending schools offering traditional (from 63.9%) Image
Read 6 tweets
9 Apr
Friday Fluday Thread: MMWR Week 13, ending April 3, 2021
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 13.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 3,853 cases; 15.33% positive

Last year: 708; 2.24%

This year: 20; 0.07%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (27 weeks, MMWR 40 to 13)

Five-year average: 192,308 cases; 18.87% positive

Last year: 290,043; 21.47%

This year: 1,935; 0.15%
Read 29 tweets
7 Apr
CDC updated HCoV surveillance today. NL63 and OC43 continue to rise.
cdc.gov/surveillance/n…
South.
Read 5 tweets
4 Apr
Weekly update from @BurbioCalendar:

% US K-12 students attending "virtual-only" schools = 14.4% (from 16.3% last week)

% US K-12 students attending "traditional" in-person/every day schools = 55.3% (from 53.1%)

% US K-12 students attending "hybrid" schools = 30.3% (from 30.6%)
% of K-12 students in hybrid by state:
Same chart, hybrid % this week, with party color of governor added by me.
Read 8 tweets
2 Apr
Friday Fluday Thread, MMWR Week 12
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 12.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

Five-year average: 5,130 cases; 17.67% positive

Last year: 3,800; 7.08%

This year: 21; 0.06%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
United States Influenza testing, season to date (26 weeks, MMWR 40 to 12)

Five-year average: 185,193 cases; 18.87% positive

Last year: 284,840; 22.13%

This year: 1,893; 0.16%
Read 27 tweets

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