“The position of the UK Gov’t is that there is no lawful, democratic path to Scottish independence for an unspecified number of decades”.

This will change Union from one based on consent to one that survives only by force of law.

Me in @thetimesscot 1/6

thetimes.co.uk/article/denyin…
Accompanying news story 👇.

Of course a referendum risks the Union itself. But denying one that people have voted for would change the Union fundamentally, ending the long era of voluntary partnership.

The Union would just be a legal construct 2/6

thetimes.co.uk/article/johnso…
Unionists need to decide whether they want to save the Union by convincing enough people to support & cherish it or by hardline legal tactics. It’s one or the other. This new ‘muscular’ unionism feels more like ‘know-your-place’ unionism 3/6

thetimes.co.uk/article/boris-…
On the other hand, nationalists cannot again peddle the 2014 fantasy that independence means continuity in most things.

It would be highly disruptive with huge challenges, especially on the fiscal position.

Their task is to convince people the rewards would be worth it 4/6
Nor is federalism a viable middle way 👇. & the case for it misses 2 points.

1. England has abandoned its historic restraint as the senior partner in the Union, esp during Brexit process

2. By electing huge numbers of SNP MPs, Scotland has largely opted out of UK politics
5/6
For the launch of the longer paper on this based on my experience helping to negotiate the terms of the 2014 referendum see 👇

Will be joined by leading historian Sir Tom Devine and Dean @NgaireWoods @BlavatnikSchool

Paper will be online this evening.

bsg.ox.ac.uk/events/scotlan…

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More from @ciaranmartinoxf

31 Jan
Among the many problems with this plan is that the proposed reforms are so far-reaching, they’d surely require a referendum 1/ 7

google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theg…
So would this be a single UK wide referendum or a separate vote in the 4 different parts? If each part of the UK has its own vote, why would Scotland, having been denied an independence referendum it might well by then have voted for in May, vote for this package instead? 2/7
If it’s a single, whole of UK vote, what happens if England votes yes and Scotland votes no? Does it get through? Imposing a new constitution on Scotland with English votes would be a pretty odd way to counter Scottish independence 3/7
Read 7 tweets
10 Jan
Now that the Government’s “war on Whitehall” seems to be over 👇, a thread on this curious episode.

TL;DR Absolutely nothing has changed in the civil service, apart from the identities of a few very senior office holders (1/20)
Firstly, the ‘war’ does genuinely seem to be over. Congrats to Tom Scholar on his reappointment, kudos to the PM & Chancellor for a wise decision, and to Simon Case for whatever he’s done to bring these pointless hostilities to an end at such an important time (2/20)
But it’s worth asking: what has this latest attempt, accompanied as it has been by ferocious (if mostly anonymously briefed) rhetoric, actually involved?

The answer is, by historical standards, virtually nothing at all. There have been two discernible strands of activity (3/20)
Read 20 tweets
31 Dec 20
As ever, @LordRickettsP is onto something important (last point👇).

The lack of grace and genuine conciliation from the victors is astounding and most unwise.

The only thing they’ve shown they care about uniting - successfully - is the Conservative Party.

In contrast...1/4
- the message to millions who valued closer ties with continental Europe is: suck it up

- the message to Scotland is: we’re in charge. We’re bigger than you. We can impose our will on you. Know your place

2/4...
- the message to Northern Ireland is: we know we’ve hugely destabilised you. But we’re going to pretend we haven’t and we’d be grateful if you could pretend not to notice too. But most of all, we don’t really care because it was worth it to get what we wanted for England

3/4...
Read 4 tweets
15 Nov 20
It’s very strange that this speech about ethics in Government from the head of the committee on standards of public life hasn’t received a lot more attention.

Lord Evans, a superb former head of MI5, is someone who chooses his words carefully.

So reflect on this quote...1/
“Quite simply, the perception is taking root that too many in public life, including some in our political leadership, are choosing to disregard the norms of ethics and propriety that have explicitly governed public life for the last 25 years...” 2/
“and that, when contraventions of ethical standards occur, nothing happens.”

Or how about this next quote...3/
Read 5 tweets

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