To say aloud a thought that seems worth saying aloud: My inner Science Genre-Savvy guesser, has a suspicion that long Covid / post-Covid syndrome, might turn out to be *real but not special*. By which I mean that if our science-larping establishment manages to...
...LARP realistically enough to gather the relevant data at all, it could turn out that influenza that lays you out in the hospital, is liable to cause "post-influenza syndrome" at a similar rate due to lingering organ damage... or, maybe, that there are many people who had a...
...common cold one year and spent the rest of their life mostly bedridden; with doctors telling them it was all in their head, because people's Just-World Hypothesis declares a common cold "shouldn't" be able to lay you out permanently like that. And that Covid-19 was just...
...the first time that an illness like that was sufficiently big, scary, a violation of the felt sense of order, and causing sufficiently severe cases to enough people at once, that the long-term aftermaths got noticed and reported. Or, of course, it could be that...
...Covid-19 *is* special, and lays people out in a special way due to getting into the bloodstream or something. I have no evidence for any of this. Just an inner Genre Savvy voice, guessing what would feel like a genre-typical result to end up reading about 5 years later.

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More from @ESYudkowsky

22 Mar
I'm not sure how true this in real life, but I wonder if it might end up a good heuristic: "Any organization too powerful to lower itself to explain the arguments and evidence it used to reach its conclusion, is also too social-reality-driven for its conclusions to be trusted."
If the CDC issues a pronouncement about fomites, say, but they don't include any traceback to a paper describing the evidence they used to know that... there *might* be a paper like that somewhere. Or it could be like that time they announced that masks didn't help with Covid-19.
Could government pronouncements about vaccines be correct? Totally! But the way you *know*, if so, is that you separately heard from a source citing a particular study that showed 95% reduction in symptomatic C19. Only that part is part of a process where words mean things.
Read 9 tweets
20 Mar
@paulg There once was a startup that had no business plan. "Why worry?" they said. "You can't predict the future. Who, in 2018, expected Covid-19? Our future business difficulties are impossible to correctly imagine. Why pretend we can?"

"A business plan is not *the* future," 1/
@paulg ...replies Paul Graham. "A business plan checks model consistency: is there a plausible world where success is possible? And a business plan writes out your assumptions; which matters, not because every assumption will be true, but so you notice if one is turning out false." 2/
@paulg (Of course, in real life, you've already decided not to fund the startup at this point. They're obviously quite doomed. It's not like you've got no choice but to bet the fortunes of your entire extended family on repairing this particular startup. But still, let's continue.) 3/
Read 26 tweets
2 Mar
I am trying to wrap my head around "this small tax would generate at least $3 trillion". Like. If you generate $3 trillion then it's not a small tax. It's a $3 trillion tax. You can't. Just. Stick the word "small" next to "$3 trillion" to cancel it.
Read 4 tweets
28 Feb
Cade Metz's byline is on the NYT hit piece to absorb blame, but the blameworthy one is more likely to be Metz's editor. The higher aristocrat is usually closer to being "the" source of the problem. Who was Metz's boss on this piece? Who'd they report to? Who ordered the hit?
Seeing a nice big name of an non-management employee, that was put out by the BigCo to take the blame, and then heaping blame on that first name you saw - trying to make *that* name infamous - seems like mental laxness to the point of being the NYTrash's willing tool, ya know?
You think Pui-Wing Tam (NYT tech editor) or Mark Thompson (CEO) give two shits if you ruin Metz's life? Tam and Thompson have a thousand eager guys with journalism degrees desperate to take Metz's place, per job opening. Metz is a very replaceable cog to them.
Read 12 tweets
28 Feb
Complicated rules always advantage the rich over the poor and the big over the little. The modern era of increasing Gini and bigco dominance has such an obvious cause in increasing regulatory complexity, that to the econoliterate it seems pointless to discuss littler causes.
(Two exceptions that I've heard taken seriously by econoliterates are software-world good-duplication yielding winner-take-all, and "trade decreases global inequality but increases local inequality" though I don't see why latter is necessary true absent rules complexity.
That is, those two are taken seriously as plausibly having an effect large enough that it plays in the same park as the incredibly vast increase in richadvantagers, or "regulations" as the naive call them.
Read 5 tweets
26 Feb
What on Earth is up with the "even after being vaccinated, you can't change your behavior" thing? Insane, yes, much of society is insane, but this insanity has some root that I don't understand. It's not the equilibrium of anything obvious-to-me.
So far, something like 1 rings truest to me, maybe with side doses of 2 & 3. People are performing virtuous compliance and there's no controlling legal authority, not even science or a vaccine, that can say it's okay to dial the performance down?
Requiring public mask-wearing for everyone, because you don't want to check vaccine certifications each time - that would make sense, sure. But in this case you would then add, "That said, go ahead and visit and hug your also-vaccinated friends in private."
Read 6 tweets

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