1. When people say "innovations happen faster today than ever before" ask:
Does this person know anything about the history of innovation?
It's an impressive sounding statement rarely challenged since we like to hear it. But it's misleading in several ways that I'll explain.
Does this person know anything about the history of innovation?
It's an impressive sounding statement rarely challenged since we like to hear it. But it's misleading in several ways that I'll explain.
2. The pace of change is not the same as scale.
For example:
The shift from hauling water on your back to indoor plumbing is HUGE. The shift from iPhone 10 to 11 is SMALL.
Have there been shifts as transformative to your quality of life as plumbing recently? I doubt it.
For example:
The shift from hauling water on your back to indoor plumbing is HUGE. The shift from iPhone 10 to 11 is SMALL.
Have there been shifts as transformative to your quality of life as plumbing recently? I doubt it.
3. We love Amazon for Prime delivery and consider it a breakthrough, but in 1900 Sears had the same business model: huge catalog + ship anywhere (thx to new railroads).
You could order an entire kit for a house and thousands of Americans did.
You could order an entire kit for a house and thousands of Americans did.
4. Tech businesses depend on upgrades. They need change to profit. But change is easier than progress.
We have email, phone, SMS, Slack, FB and on it goes.
Have your relationships with ppl improved recently because of a new tech? We upgrade, but that doesn't mean advancement.
We have email, phone, SMS, Slack, FB and on it goes.
Have your relationships with ppl improved recently because of a new tech? We upgrade, but that doesn't mean advancement.
5. 1920s might be the high watermark of tech change in U.S. All of these were new and rising fast in popularity:
- indoor plumbing
- electricity
- urban living
- railroads
- movies
- phonograph
The culture change was profound - we can't even imagine it today.
- indoor plumbing
- electricity
- urban living
- railroads
- movies
- phonograph
The culture change was profound - we can't even imagine it today.
6. More recently, the rise of the Internet from 1994-2001 is another good candidate for era of tech change.
The speed at which the internet became central to daily life is remarkable.
But you rarely hear it referenced either by people talking about tech change today.
The speed at which the internet became central to daily life is remarkable.
But you rarely hear it referenced either by people talking about tech change today.
7. The illusion of tech pace increasing is based on how new tech depends on older ones.
Of course electricity in homes was slow compared to mobile phones. They had to put wiring in every home!
Again, pace of change is not scale of change.
Of course electricity in homes was slow compared to mobile phones. They had to put wiring in every home!
Again, pace of change is not scale of change.
8. We forget innovations *always* leave people behind. Pace of change is not uniform for all.
Fact: almost 1 in 6 ppl don't have access to safe water - yet we take it for granted (for 100yrs).
Lowering numbers like this is greater progress than another social media app.
Fact: almost 1 in 6 ppl don't have access to safe water - yet we take it for granted (for 100yrs).
Lowering numbers like this is greater progress than another social media app.
9. All this means that when someone tells you about "unprecedented innovation" or "fastest rate of progress":
They're at best shallow in their thinking, or at worst, trying to sell you something.
They're at best shallow in their thinking, or at worst, trying to sell you something.
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