Blake Shaffer 📊🇺🇦 Profile picture
Apr 14, 2021 6 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Today's Canadian vaccine update:

Nearly 300k doses today! Canada now has over 21% of its population with one dose or more, over 25% of adults.
25.6% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.7% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (29.2%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (6.5%).
Yesterday 6 out of 10 provinces in Canada met the required pace to vaccinate 75% of population with one dose or more by June 30th.
Are we on pace over time? Here is the 7 day moving average of the pace metric.

Canada is meeting the required pace!
The Scoreboard!

Among the provinces, SK leads in doses per 100 adults at 33.0%.
PE leads in share of fully vaccinated adults at 6.5%.
QC leads in share of adults with one dose or more at 29.2%
Finally, how do we compare?

Canada is now # 4 in the G-20 for doses per 100. We are #3 for share of population with one dose or more.

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More from @bcshaffer

Oct 2, 2024
The AB govt has issued its "Rate of Last Resort" regulations. These amend how the default rate for electricity consumers in Alberta that don't opt for a competitive (fixed or floating) rate is set.

Let's take a look at the details... 🧵 #ableg #abpower Image
First, what is the "RoLR"?

It replaces the "RRO" as the default rate for Albertans who don't select a competitive plan.

The big change: Rather than being set monthly, the rate will be fixed for 2 years. The idea is to provide more stability, less volatility. Image
The RoLR is meant to be stable, remaining fixed for 2 years, with a maximum 10% adjustment into the next 2 year period. But wait... Image
Read 7 tweets
Aug 23, 2024
It's been a while, so i thought i'd offer another "Fixed or Floating" update for Alberta electricity.

First, if you went fixed above 10c last year, call your retailer or shop around. Current offers are cheaper now and most plans have no cancel fees.

ucahelps.alberta.ca
Second, the "fixed vs float" decision has switched.

Going forward, floating prices (based on forward RRO markets) look cheaper than current fixed offers.

And if you're on a market floating plan, i.e. not the "RRO", you'll avoid the ~3c "cap adder" for the balance of 2024. Image
Of course the caveats: lots can change, floating is volatile, this isn't advice, yadda yadda

I do expect low prices to lead to retirements, which should raise prices again. But if that happens, you can switch back to fixed as most retailers are slow to update their offers.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 19, 2024
Today the AB govt announced changes to the default "Regulated Rate Option", including a name change ("Rate of Last Resort!") and moving from monthly pricing to 2-year fixed price terms.

Some initial thoughts from someone who has followed this closely for a while (me, i mean me):
First, i'll acknowledge the good intentions.

- the name has always misleading suggested stability, when it's not at all stable
- trying to create more stability to default plans is a good thing for the many Albertans who don't have the time nor interest to shop for better rates
But ... some critiques:

1. Timing

Making these changes now, especially in the name of affordability, is a little like showing up to a streetfight and telling your bloodied friend: "i've got your back!"

It's too late. The crisis has passed. The time for changes was 3 years ago. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 19, 2024
"But what if we had one million EVs??? 😱😱"

Let's put 1M EVs in Alberta in context...
Let's start with energy needs:

Avg driving = 15,000km/year
x 20kWh per 100km = 3000kWh per year per vehicle
x 1M EVs = 3TWh EV charging demand per year.

Compare 3TWh to Alberta's 85TWh annual load.

So an increase of 3.5% 🥱
For some perspective, the new gas plant that just got constructed in Alberta, Cascade (900MW) should produce more than 6TWh per year.

So we're talking about half that one, albeit large, single power plant.
Read 8 tweets
Jan 14, 2024
Some thoughts on a wild night for Alberta power yesterday…

[thread]
First, @theAESO operators deserve a shout out. They managed the grid smoothly through a tense situation.

Also, HUGE shout out to the thermal fleet operators. Only 1 plant (Milner) tripped during this cold snap. That’s incredible performance given the conditions.
Second, the emergency alert looks to have triggered a 150MW response. That’s inline per capita with the 2100MW Cali got from a similar event in 2022. Well done, Albertans. This highlights the capability of demand flexibility but emergency alerts are not a sustainable solution. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jan 14, 2024
Alberta likely on the cusp of firm load shed, if not happening already.

What does that mean?

They will have first gone to large customers asking for demand reductions.

Next step would be rotating outages for 30-60 mins across different substations (basically communities).
For those wondering how long this might last, expect the emergency alert to continue until at least 10pm, if not later if we see another plant go offline

Milner is still struggling to get back online and wind remains very low. Also BC imports are 1/4 of yesterday’s. Image
Load (demand) falls from here. The only question is whether we don’t see a plant trip. There’s nothing left in the AB supply stack to call on right now and looks like reserves are being fully dispatched. Image
Read 6 tweets

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