Blake Shaffer 📊🇺🇦's Threads

Apr 19 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

Today the AB govt announced changes to the default "Regulated Rate Option", including a name change ("Rate of Last Resort!") and moving from monthly pricing to 2-year fixed price terms.

Some initial thoughts from someone who has followed this closely for a while (me, i mean me): First, i'll acknowledge the good intentions.

- the name has always misleading suggested stability, when it's not at all stable
- trying to create more stability to default plans is a good thing for the many Albertans who don't have the time nor interest to shop for better rates

Jan 19 • 8 tweets • 2 min read

"But what if we had one million EVs??? 😱😱"

Let's put 1M EVs in Alberta in context...

Let's start with energy needs:

Avg driving = 15,000km/year
x 20kWh per 100km = 3000kWh per year per vehicle
x 1M EVs = 3TWh EV charging demand per year.

Compare 3TWh to Alberta's 85TWh annual load.

So an increase of 3.5% 🥱

Jan 14 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

Some thoughts on a wild night for Alberta power yesterday…

[thread]

First, @theAESO operators deserve a shout out. They managed the grid smoothly through a tense situation.

Also, HUGE shout out to the thermal fleet operators. Only 1 plant (Milner) tripped during this cold snap. That’s incredible performance given the conditions.

Jan 14 • 6 tweets • 3 min read

Alberta likely on the cusp of firm load shed, if not happening already.

What does that mean?

They will have first gone to large customers asking for demand reductions.

Next step would be rotating outages for 30-60 mins across different substations (basically communities).

https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1746347840778141792

For those wondering how long this might last, expect the emergency alert to continue until at least 10pm, if not later if we see another plant go offline

Milner is still struggling to get back online and wind remains very low. Also BC imports are 1/4 of yesterday’s.

Sep 28, 2023 • 12 tweets • 3 min read

So tomorrow @theAESO is presenting their assessment of the implications of the proposed Clean Electricity Regulations to a media-only audience.

A thread on what i'll be looking for... 🧵 #ableg #abpower

1. AESO is an independent agency. They are not the government. I'll be looking for an independent voice and assessment. That means a matter of fact assessment that reflects their role, and avoids any hyperbole.

Sep 12, 2023 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

🚨 AB Power #FixedOrFloat Update!🚨

So I've been rather persistently telling all who'd listen to get on a fixed rate for a while now. I figure it's saved the avg hh ~$1500 since then (you're welcome 🤗)

Now it's *almost* time for a new recommendation! 🧵

https://twitter.com/bcshaffer/status/1459552387669057537?s=20

If you believe the forward markets, the tops are in for Alberta power. August rang the bell for highest month, in part thanks to the 2.5c/kWh adder from the Q1 rate cap.

Going forward, prices are expected to weaken.

Sep 11, 2023 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

Hey Calgary, how do you feel about this chart? #yyccc

A thread on Calgary's "Local Access Fee" for electricity and how it is set completely differently than the rest of the municipalities in the province and why that doesn't make sense ... 🧵

First, what is a "local access fee" (aka franchise fee)?

This is a charge a muni imposes on the local distribution company in lieu of property taxes to use land for electrical equipment (power lines, substations, etc). The cost gets passed through to customers.

Aug 24, 2023 • 11 tweets • 4 min read

For 2 years now people have offered their favourite vices as reasons for why Alberta power prices are high.

It's good to hear Premier @ABDanielleSmith finally acknowledge that offer behaviour is the main reason.

A thread and a quibble on some of her statement... 🧵

https://twitter.com/disorderedyyc/status/1694444834441114062

First, this isn't news, or at least it shouldn't be. With co-authors, we identified a change in offer behaviour back in 2021 as the primary reason for what has persisted to be high prices.
policyschool.ca/wp-content/upl…

Aug 17, 2023 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Many have asked why Alberta’s power prices are so high right now.

You can pick your favourite vice, but the main reason continues to be higher offer behaviour from firms in pivotal (ie needed) positions.

From yesterday’s Market Surveillance report:

When and why did offer behaviour change?

Dec 31, 2020. When the 20 year legislated PPAs expired and offer control consolidated among a few firms.

Can you spot it?

Oct 25, 2022 • 13 tweets • 4 min read

In new research, @S_HastingsSimon @andrew_leach @TimWeisAB and I do a deep dive into Alberta's Renewable Electricity Program (REP). Link to the journal article at end of thread.

In this policy trends we highlight the headline: the REP has *made* the government money. [1/n]

https://twitter.com/policy_school/status/1584922746412228610

It's probably fair to say, when most people hear "govt renewable support program" they associate it with subsidies and large taxpayer costs.

Alberta's REP showed that needn't be the case.

Aug 5, 2022 • 11 tweets • 5 min read

🚨Alberta retail electricity rate thread coming!🚨

I've been, err, rather vocal in encouraging Albertans to get on a fixed rate for their electricity (and gas) for the past year.

That hasn't changed. I still am. (Get on one! Save yo'self!)

But a turn is coming... (next year)🧵

Let's recap.

In Alberta, you have options for electricity (and gas):

1. Pay a floating rate that goes up and down with the market (two flavours here: the default "regulated" one or a spot floating one)

2. Pay a fixed rate. Same X cents per kwh for all your consumption.

Aug 2, 2022 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

New Alberta Electricity Long-term adequacy report just dropped. Headline figure: the supply cushion. This winter will be tighter than normal.

Note: the supply cushion only includes "firm" supply. Excludes wind, solar and interties (meaning, they'll be needed this winter)

In the medium term, however, the situation for consumers should ease with over 7100MW under construction in the province with an in-service data prior to Dec 2024.

Apr 20, 2022 • 12 tweets • 4 min read

Many have asked: why are my AB power bills so high?

So Dave Brown, Andrew Eckert and I decided to dig in to the answer. In forthcoming research, and highlighted by today's Policy Trends piece, we broke down the factors behind Alberta's recent run-up in power prices.

Thread... Depending on who you ask, you'll get different answers.

Some point to runaway transmission and other delivery fees. And while it's true those who steadily gone up over the past 10 years, and are a big issue, they're not the reason for the sudden jump in prices.

May 19, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read

Tomorrow (or the next day) 🇨🇦 will pass 🇺🇸 for % of pop with 1 dose or more.

This will be accompanied by feverish partisan tweeting: Libs have their celebratory tweets ready to go; R and L will be screaming “bUt tWo dOsEs!”

Here’s my take on how to think about this milestone 🧵

First, let’s celebrate the recent pace of deliveries. There’s nothing partisan about that. Yes, Canada got off to a rocky start in February, but we have been rocking it since.

Currently Canada leads the OECD in daily doses per capita.

May 17, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

First look at Alberta's vaccination rates (% w one dose or more, all ages) across its 132 local geographic areas.

Highest: Edmonton Twin Brooks (56.2%)
Lowest: High Level (9.8%)

75+ age group

Apr 15, 2021 • 7 tweets • 3 min read

Today's Canadian vaccine update:

300!!

Big delivery day (over 12.6M doses now delivered)!!

Canada now has 22% of its population with one dose or more.

26.5% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.7% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (30.1%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (7.0%).

Apr 15, 2021 • 11 tweets • 3 min read

So I've done a first read of the leaked CPC plan and have a few thoughts. #cdnecon #cdnpoli

1. Carbon pricing.

This will get all the attention today, and understandably given the CPC has made it their mantra to oppose carbon prices on households. So it's good they've relented, but the details matter here. And the details make this largely a gimmick...

Apr 14, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read

Today's Canadian vaccine update:

Nearly 300k doses today! Canada now has over 21% of its population with one dose or more, over 25% of adults.

25.6% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.7% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (29.2%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (6.5%).

Apr 13, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read

Today's Canadian vaccine update:

Canada now has over 20% of its population with one dose or more, nearly 25% of adults.

24.7% of Cdn adults now have one dose or more, 2.6% are fully vaccinated. QC leads the provinces in terms of one dose or more (28.2%), PE leads in terms of fully vaccinated (6.5%).

Mar 4, 2021 • 5 tweets • 2 min read

*refresh*
*refresh*
*refresh*

Mar 3, 2021 • 9 tweets • 4 min read

A quick thread on the interconnectedness of power and NG markets. Others have discussed the interdependence and asymmetries of these two energy markets (e.g. @CostaSamaras & @MichaelEWebber).

I want to talk about how the Texas cold snap propagated through power & gas markets. Let's start with Texas itself. Here's North Hub day-ahead market prices for power during the event. Pinned at $8000-9000/MWh through the event. Now back to a more typical $20.

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