Canada is now up to 8.9 million shots given -- which is 77.6% of the total 11.5M doses available. Over the past 7 days, 1,226,790 doses have been delivered to provinces.
And so far 840k are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Canada's pace of vaccination:
Today's 297,534 shots given compares to an average of 272,674/day over the past week and 185,681/day the week prior.
- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 284,693
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Oct 2021
But based on just the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 25% by April, 50% by May, and 75% by July 2021.
For context, at Canada's latest 7-day average daily pace, the share of people with 1 or more doses increases by 0.68% per day. The U.S. average increase is 0.60% per day. For Canada to reach the current U.S. share would take 24 days.
Turning to individual provinces, here's doses administered over time and the latest share of deliveries used. SK leading with 92.0% of delivered doses administered while NU has administered 63.7%.
Note: Shares >100% are due to squeezing 'extra' doses from vaccine vials.
Vaccination pace varies widely. Here's time to reach 75% of adults w/ 1+ doses based on the latest 7-day average daily pace.
- SK fastest at 41 days.
- PE slowest at 77 days.
On pace for June goal: SK, QC, MB, NL, BC, ON, AB, NB, NS, PE
Not on pace:
And here's where things stand today:
- Highest overall: YT at 59% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 24% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: NA at NA
- Fewest Vaccinated: NA at NA
How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 7th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 12th.
The GoA/LifeWorks thought the Act implied we reverse the clock and estimate what a hypothetical APP would have accumulated since 1966 had all other variables remained unchanged. That reached 53% of CPP assets, or ~$334 billion. This was highly touted by the APP engagement panel.
How do carbon taxes affect food prices? In our latest paper, @dr_jen_winter and I analyze both direct and indirect impacts across the entire food supply chain:
TL;DR: Carbon taxes in Canada, such as the federal $80/tonne emissions price, are often criticized for raising costs. But we find that emissions pricing increases domestic food costs modestly—about 0.8%—with imports shrinking the overall impact on food prices to about 0.5%.
The paper isn't yet accepted for publication, so comments are welcome! 😀 We've completed revisions for the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics and recently resubmitted. The link above is to the latest version.
Today's data: inflation rate falls to 2.7% in April. Would have fallen more, but gasoline pushed the rate up. Shelter remains largest contributor, but pace of increase is falling.
The key Bank of Canada core measures of inflation have also remained within the target range -- lower than 2% -- over the past 3 months. This is what the bank is looking forward before lowering rates.
Here are the contributors to the drop. Most items down, but energy prices offset some of that.
This accounts for *changes* in the CPI annual rate of increase. Alternatively, had energy prices remained flat yoy, then CPI growth would have been 2.4% in April.
Today's data: inflation! 🥳 Prices were 2.9%, on average, higher in January than a year earlier. Inflation down from 3.4% in Dec. Biggest contributors to the drop were energy, food, travel. Cell phones offsetting some.
Looking at the headline rate, shelter is larger contributor. Rent accounts for ~0.5 points of the 2.9, mortgage interest costs ~1.0 points.
Important: note the strong decline in the pace of grocery price growth. Now in line with historical norm.
The decline in inflation has also been fairly broad based, with now fewer than half of items seeing a pace of price growth above 3% -- although still a larger share than normal, which is ~0.3-0.4.
This is higher than last month, true, but it doesn't mean the inflation situation is worsening. I noted this yesterday, saying 3.4% was the number to watch.
This is a *very* important point to keep in mind for the next *several* months. Even if things are completely normal month-by-month, the headline rate won't fall much over the next quarter.
As expected, inflation fell in October. A lot. From 3.8% in September to 3.1% in October. And monthly, adjusted for seasonality, prices were lower in October than Sept.
A big part of the reason is from lower gasoline prices. That's anticipated because oil prices were down. There's a tight connection between energy's contribution to CPI and oil prices (obviously). This has been a consistent story over the past two years.
You can see the size of the contribution from energy to the change in inflation since September here 👇 . Basically everything else was a net wash.