Thread by @nickgutteridge

1/ How time flies - there are now only two weeks left for the EU Parliament to ratify the Brexit trade deal before its provisional application runs out at the end of the month. There has long been an assumption in the end MEPs will put up and shut up, but is it quite that simple?

2/ So far the Parliament's main groupings have refused to set a date for the vote. But if it's going to happen, it's got to be at the April 26-29 plenary. In the meantime MEPs are carrying on laying the groundwork and the deal is set to clear its final committee hurdles today.

3/ What happens if they don't hold the vote in time? 1. The EU Commission asks for another extension which the UK would agree to, albeit under protest. Govt spox: 'We have agreed to extend the deadline for the EU...and we expect them to complete their processes to this timeline.'

4/ Or 2. There is no extension, either because the EU doesn't ask, or the UK says no. In which cases the deal lapses and trade reverts to WTO terms. This is an outcome that neither side wants to see at all, and would surely only come about as a result of a catastrophic accident.

5/ So, why are MEPs doing this? There are two reasons. Firstly, there is the question of the Northern Ireland Protocol and potential breaches of the Withdrawal Agreement by the UK. They want to see more progress towards a negotiated solution on that before signing the deal.

6/ In that regard today's dinner between Lord Frost and Maros Sefcovic could prove crucial. If they can chart a way forward that will help. As one source puts it: 'If the talks on Northern Ireland are going in the right direction, there’s a good chance we will see a vote.'

7/ And secondly, there's an internal inter-institutional element. The EP wants a much greater role in the governance of the trade deal and dispute settlement due to the 'exceptional' nature of relations with the UK. Among other things, it wants to attend the Partnership Council.

8/ So by holding off on agreeing to ratify the deal they're trying to 'put pressure' on the Commission, which so far isn't playing ball with their demands. All of this hasn't gone down terribly well with EU capitals, who think any extra delay would be 'extremely undesirable'.

9/ A diplomat says: 'Member States have signed off on it, and they want to see this thing ratified as quickly as possible.' And there is still a feeling that in the end MEPs will relent. Because, as one parliament source admits, they 'don't want to be responsible for a No Deal'.

10/ In the meantime, the uncertainty hangs over both sides' heads. The final decision on the agenda for this month's EP plenary will be taken at a heads of groups meeting next Thursday, so we may have to wait until then for full clarity...just 8 days before a potential No Deal.

11/ What this episode does is provide yet another demonstration of how difficult the waters of EU-UK relations are going to be to navigate, and the potential for the politics on both sides of the Channel to blow things off course. There's no plain sailing on the horizon yet.