Following TTP’s solidarity with TLP, against the backdrop of govt’s decision to ban the latter, some people are wondering the logic behind this move. TTP and TLP are two rival Sunni sub-sects. TTP has been involved in attacks on Sufi shrines across Pak in collusion with LeJ. 1/n
This is the 2nd time TTP has reached out to TLP through a public statement. TTP also issued a eulogy on TLP founder Maulana Khadim Hussain Rizvi’s demise.
a) The issue if Namoos-e-Risalat cuts across sectarian lines. 2/n
Following Salman Tasser's murder by Mumtaz Qadri, AQ's Punjab chapter assassinated then Minorities Minister Shahbaz Bhatti to exploit the blasphemy issue and cash in on public sentiment to increase its legitimacy and attract fresh recruitments. 3/n
b) Namoos-e-Risalat has wider resonance in the public & the masses have deep religious and sentimental attachment with this issue. TTP is trying to exploit those sentiments to make inroads into Punjab and discredit the state by portraying it as weak on such sensitive issues. 4/n
c) The more obvious explanation of TTP's pro-TLP statements is the former's assumption that the latter is anti-state. There's merit in this assumption. However, the major difference is that TLP accepts Pak's constitution, practices democracy & accepts parliament, unlike TTP. 5/n
Even Jaish-e-Muhammad, a Deobandi militant group, has given more space to discussion on the Charlie Hebdo issue in its propaganda publications. Similar trends can be found in AQ and IS's publications. So this is the broader context in which TTP's statement should be situated. 6/n
This is a popular narrative TTP, like others, would like to exploit. However, this outreach is unlikely to materialize into anything meaningful. n/n
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The decision to ban TLP is too little, too late. The damage has been done. Also, the ban is as good as state institutions' ability to maintain the state's writ against TLP. The ban'll neither dent TLP's pol narrative nor undermine its street power. 1/n geo.tv/latest/345260-…
The ban is not sufficient as long as those who created this outfit to achieve tactical political gains are not held accountable. Tomorrow, there will be a new outfit with a different narrative turning into a Frankenstein that TLP morphed into. 2/n
We know how effective these bans are, administratively & politically. TLP is more than an organization, it is an ideology with grassroots support. Ban, a right step, is a necessary but not sufficient condition to rein in TLP. Accountability of those who created TLP is a must. 3/n
Protests, agitation, long marches and sit-ins are the hallmark of TLP's brand of religious politics centered on two pillars: " Khatm-e-NAbuwat and Namoos-e-Risalat. Each sit-in, protest & long-march has strengthened the party, swelled its membership & vote bank. 1/n
The sit-in at D-chowk Islamabad in 2016 after Mumtaz Qadri's funeral laid the foundation of TLP's entry into politics as the movement Tehreek-e-Rihai Mumtaz Qadri transformed into Tehreek-e-Labaik Ya Rasoolullah (TLYR) to which Tehreek-e-Labiak Pakistan (TLP) is a pol wing. 2/n
The 2017 Faizabad sit-in was a turning point in TLP's politics, forcing the PMLN govt to accede to all its demands by blocking the interchange connecting RWP&Isb. TLP emerged as a threat to the PMLN's vote-bank in Punjab. The appeasement strengthened TLP & gave it more space. 3/n
1. TTP is not a monolith and does not reside in one area in Afghanistan. Its connections with sections of the Afghan establishment and TTA are old and diverse. Dealing with TTP is part of the ongoing peace process and a key Pakistani demand.
2. Recent developments reveal these diverse & apparently contradictory connections of TTP. The mysterious killings of six mid-level TTP commanders b/n May & July in Afg was arguably the quid pro duo that Pak would have demanded in return for brokering the US-TB deal.
3. After these developments, among others, TTP reunified realizing that it'll be weakened if it didn't unify. While some sections of Afg establishment may ve links with Halqa Mehsud, after the 2014 APS attack it took action against the Swat Taliban. tribune.com.pk/story/616941/s…