Thread by @tylerblack32

1/ Thread: "Pseudo-profound headlines"

One of the worst examples of the media moral panic about suicides during the pandemic occurred when western media got a hold of Japanese suicide rates.

2/ @CNN @CBSNews wrote scary articles with scary headlines ... even my good friend and excellent writer @drjessigold wrote about as nuanced a piece about it one could do in Forbes (without getting a quote from me?!?!?!??!!), and look at the headline.

3/ I call this a "pseudoprofound headline." Automatically interesting, but fails with any scrutiny or thought. Dr. Gold's article goes into some of it with respect to the lack of data compared to real-time Japanese data, (now we know the US did NOT show this same effect), but...

4/ ... SERIOUSLY! Why did this headline DOMINATE the news in North America? What's the deal? Did it end up having any American/European/Canadian relevance? Was it even relevant at the time?

5/ Ultimately, we now know it had no relevance in America (nor most Western/European Jurisdictions).

The fewest number of deaths the US has EVER HAD since the pandemic started in earnest in March 2020 is, well, March 2020.

7000.

As high as 100k!!! this January.

6/ There has never been a month of suicides in American history greater than 4,400. Not only is the "more suicides than a year of covid" not true for the USA, it's not even close. No months since the pandemic started. has had fewer COVID deaths than suicide deaths.

7/ Canada averages about 4,000 suicides per year. There have been 24,000 Canadian COVID deaths in the past 12 months.

So no, this awful headline had no relevance to most North American readers except to STOKE FEAR ABOUT SUICIDES RISING (A media favourite)

8/ OK, well maybe it wasn't relevant, but the statistic "more suicides in october than all year of COVID" itself is interesting, isn't it?

No! It's a pseudoprofound statement. SO WHAT if that's true? Where else was it true? New Zealand! But because they've had 26 deaths.

9/ If this statistic WAS relevant, and say, lockdowns WERE related to suicide, with 26 deaths in New Zealand I would predict about a HUGE increase in suicides, right? Oh, wait? they had a decrease too? 5%, just like the US (where COVID ran wild with a shit govt response?)

10/ In fact, in any year for DECADES, media could run the following headlines:

"More People Died to Cancer in July than All Yearly Suicides in the US"

"There were More Heart Disease Deaths in the US in April than ALL Septicemia Deaths"

But... so what?

11/ Every year, 810 kids in the US die of accidental drowning. Does pointing out that that's much less than any month of Alzheimer's deaths (11,000 per month) help at all? does it advocate for anything? What? Care less about the preventable drownings?

12/ How often have you seen an anti-lockdown, anti-masker, covid-denier, or even just "skeptic" (quotes intentional) claim "lockdowns will kill far more than covid ever will".

Well here you go, "Skeptic" Here's your evidence.

Every cause.
Every. single. cause of death.

13/ (note: I used the CDC count for "UNDERLYING" COVID-19 death, which means that the death was initiated by COVID-19, which is the lesser of the two COVID counts, so this is a CONSERVATIVE estimate).

14/ That's right. COVID-19 has killed more people in 2020 than every disease except heart disease and cancer, and even then, it's BARELY #3 since the pandemic started.

Last 3Q 2020:
Heart Disease: 516k Deaths
Cancer: 448k deaths
COVID-19 (Underlying Cause): 375k

15/ And in December '20 and January '21:
COVID-19 (Underlying Cause): 178k deaths
Heart Disease: 124k deaths
Cancer: 100k
...
Oh and btw suicides likely: 7.5k

16/ So now, people who used this line of reasoning, i'd like to see the headline:

"There were more deaths by COVID in November and December than any TWO YEARS of suicide in the US."

Yes, yes, I can hear the crickets.

17/ The deniers, anti-lockdowners, anti-maskers, HCQ-believers, anti-vaxxers... they use these tropes ONLY when convenient. When a suicide number is reported that is high "LOCKDOWNS KILL", when its low (5.6% less in 2020!) and COVID killed 500k? "don't trust the CDC!"

18/ Media HAS to do better. If a headline is illogical and fear-inducing, it only adds to the NOISE. I'm so so so so proud whenever a newspaper or outlet DARES report good news on suicide numbers. But I shouldn't be. Editors and Producers: stop using headlines to stoke fear.

19/ But please, media, stop floundering in dumb statistics.

I'm found both by googling me or DMing me. If you are a media outlet or journalist and you need EXPERT CONTEXT, reach out to me!

I'm happy to be quoted, I'm happy to be background helping you understand the numbers.

20/ And so-called "edgy" medtwitter/statstwitter/epi-twitter folks, I see you. I see your awful predictions "lockdowns will cause death for DECADES!!!!!11!!!". You are clout-chasing, disingenuous, self-serving airheads.

21/ And people who are anti-mask/lockdown/vaccine or covid denying/minimizing, just for once in your life be honest with yourself.

You don't care what the numbers will say.

They're true if they support you and lies if they don't.

The problem is you.