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Fred Bauer Profile picture
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16 Apr, 4 tweets, 1 min read
In June 2020, Klain, who is now Biden's chief of staff, was saying that 20K COVID cases a day was a sign of Trump's "failed, feckless response."

Almost 3 months into Biden's term, US is averaging about 70K cases/day.
About 200 million vaccination shots have been delivered, so the pool of people who can even get COVID is radically shrinking. Yet US still has tens of 1000s of new infections. If Biden can't suppress COVID even with a vaccine, how was Trump supposed to without one?
A constant claim throughout the summer of 2020 was that, if Trump would just show "leadership," COVID could be suppressed.

But one of the lessons of the past year is the limits of policy NPIs to suppress COVID. They can help contain it, but they face real limits. (Look at EU.)
Hypothesis: What if Biden and Trump had basically the same policy strategy for COVID (vaccinate our way out of it)?

If the Biden White House has some non-vaccine strategy to suppress COVID, it hasn't unveiled it yet.

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More from @fredbauerblog

Fred Bauer Profile picture
18 Apr
Via @sullydish. A case could be made that the existential factional conflict that undermines the "liberal order" has in fact accelerated since 2020. andrewsullivan.substack.com/p/the-american… Image
It's not surprising that hyper-polarization should cloak itself in the language of righteous enmity ("Enemy of the people!....Enemy of democracy!"). But it is nevertheless corrosive.
One of the things that Sullivan's piece captures is the increasingly "Animal Farm" nature of elite American political discourse. Post-reality politics is inevitably fiercely tribalistic politics.
Read 4 tweets
Fred Bauer Profile picture
10 Jan
From a certain member of Congress in the summer of 2020: If you're going to "protest safely," be sure that you wear nondescript clothing so that you can't be identified and bring along some heat-resistant gloves. instagram.com/p/CA0jzCdg_vR/…
June 1, 2020: "Since the beginning of this country, riots and violent rhetoric have been markers of patriotism." theatlantic.com/culture/archiv…
May 29, 2020: "What we’re missing when we condemn “violence” at protests." vox.com/first-person/2…
Read 4 tweets
Fred Bauer Profile picture
10 Jan
This is an interesting window into narrative formation.

As videos circulate of Capitol Police officers putting their bodies on the line and being overwhelmed by a violent mob, the former president links to a piece calling their response "tepid."
A policeman literally died in defense of the Capitol.
A thin line of police fighting against the mob.
Read 4 tweets
Fred Bauer Profile picture
9 Jan
One path that does not seem promising for the preservation of "liberal democracy": Increasing agitation for popular violence, sustained efforts at constitutional delegitimization from major stakeholders, roving paranoia, calls for economic/political unpersoning, etc.
Whatever it public-health benefits, sustained social distancing is also extremely destructive to political stability.

American elites have all too often sought to channel this instability into factional violence (from May 2020 onward). It's a catastrophic failure of leadership.
Or maybe they've attempted to try to harness such violence toward factional ends. Either way, a massive failure.
Read 4 tweets
Fred Bauer Profile picture
3 Dec 20
Congressional Research Service report on removing per-country caps on green cards (which unanimously passed the Senate yesterday) reveals how transformative this proposal would be. It basically shuts down high-skilled immigration from most of the world. cis.org/sites/default/…
The EB1 visa is for applicants with "extraordinary" abilities in the sciences, research, the arts, business, etc. Currently (outside of India and China), there's only a 1-year wait for this visa. Under HR1044, that will become a 7-year wait.
For EB2 (professionals w/advanced degrees, etc.), the backlog for the rest of the world (other than India/China) is less than a year. If the caps are removed, that will become 37 years.
Read 4 tweets
Fred Bauer Profile picture
7 Apr 20
One note of caution about extrapolating too much from this statistic (and related studies): The U.S. economy is balanced very differently compared to 1918--much more dependent on service sector now. Also, many city "lockdowns" in 1918 were less stringent than today.
LA as cited as an example of a city that had an effective lockdown to counter the 1918 flu. But, according to the Influenza Encyclopedia, the lockdown was pretty targeted--schools, poolhalls, theaters, etc. Efforts to implement broader lockdowns failed. influenzaarchive.org/cities/city-lo…
If you look at the 1918 policies in the cities praised by the NYT above, you'll notice that they leave many businesses open and focus mostly on closing entertainment venues, schools, and churches. Again, the Influenza Encyclopedia is a good resource. influenzaarchive.org/index.html
Read 6 tweets

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