Thread by @olgatokariuk

While politicians and pundits try to understand what Russia's next moves could be and how to prevent it from launching another assault on Ukraine, here's my observations about the mood in Ukraine. After all, people are important actors too (Ukrainians showed it more than once!)

This week, I tried to understand that mood by talking to people and monitoring debates on social media. My conclusion is this: Ukrainians are worried about a possibility of further Russian aggression, but they are not afraid. They are determined to fight back and are preparing

This not only relates to soldiers on the frontline and ex soldiers who have returned to civilian life, launched their business, but are now ready to go back to Donbas to defend Ukraine. People with no military background in the regions talk about forming territorial defense units

The experience of Maidan, where self-defence units were quickly formed, and of the early stage of war in 2014, when thousands joined volunteer battalions, shows that Ukrainians are capable to organize to defend themselves before any official command arrives

I talked to volunteers who provide assistance to Ukr military. A woman I spoke with has been raising money to buy medical kits for doctors on the frontline since 2014. She said she's been getting more requests recently as medics make stocks to prepare for an eventual escalation

At the same time, she said people started donating money to support the army again, as it was in 2014-2015. Back then, it was people's donations and volunteers who provided the Ukrainian soldiers with almost everything. Since then, the government has increased defence spending

However Ukrainians are used to rely on themselves, so they already get prepared, everyone in their own way.

I also spoke with people in Sloviansk, the city in Eastern Ukraine that was the first to be captured by Russian special forces and local proxies in 2014 and distant 150 km from the front. Local journalist told me people were worried that the city might be hit by artillery strikes

However, he said, there was no food stockpiling nor people were thinking about leaving. He said there was no massive pro-Russian propaganda in local online groups, as was the case in 2014. He said that 2014 scenario, when some locals helped to occupy gov.t buildings, was unlikely

Of course, these are subjective observations and it's difficult to draw conclusions about Ukraine's level of preparedness from them. It remains a fact though that the country has been living under permanent Russian threat for seven years. Memories of 2014-2015 are fresh

Also, those Ukrainians who might have sympathised with Russia in 2014 or hesitated, had a chance to see what the occupation brought to Crimea and especially Donbas: economic decline, lawlessness, depopulation. In the occupied Donbas, the human rights situation is terrible

7 years since the start of Russian aggression, most Ukrainians support the country's course towards the EU and NATO and don't want to have anything to do with Moscow - at least until Putin is in power.If he dares to launch a full-scale invasion,he must prepare to heavy resistance

Another variable, often overlooked, is the position of Russians: whether they would support a new attack on Ukraine? This is not 2014, and there are indications that even some of those who supported the annexation of Crimea then, might have changed their mind about Putin's regime

Here, the position of Alexey Navalny and his team could play a potentially important role. If he condemns Putin's aggressive actions against Ukraine, calls supporters to protest and Western leaders to act more decisively, in the interest of both Ukrainian and Russian people...

...it could be a game-changer.

That's all for now, thanks for reading!

Thanks to everyone who read, commented and shared this thread. Some of the takeaways in it are from my article for EFE news agency. Here's the full article (in Spanish) with some extra experts' comments about Ukraine's military preparedness efe.com/efe/espana/mun…