@BadChinaTake Firstly, let me commend you for trying to have an evidence based discussion on this. In this thread, I want ask some clarifying questions. I hope we can keep things civil.
You say it would not be surprising if there are errors. Have you ascertained what is their error rate? Should we not double confirm sites as camps, before reporting them as such, i.e. “innocent until proven guilty” principle?
Which do you think is the most accurate estimate, and why? Do you think it’s reasonable from a cost and logistical point of view for 25% of the entire Uyghur population to be in detention? What are the potential flow on effects?
You noted declines in Xinjiang are extremely unusual compared to worldwide data. Have you examined other similar declines and the reasons driving those declines? Is this indisputable evidence that nefarious things are happening?
In the same piece, you concluded that preventing excess births cannot account for the 48.7% decline in birth rate over 2 years. Have you tried to allow for the impact of other factors, such as China having 12% overall birth rate decline in 2018,...
...net migration out of Xinjiang (of mostly reproductive age workers), and rapid economic and transportation improvements allowing faster integration of urban and rural areas, and therefore faster convergence in behaviour?
I also note that you concluded genocide was "very much a possibility" in this piece, but subsequently you wrote a piece that said the evidence does not amount to genocide. Can you please detail what caused this change in conclusion?
You note a puzzling disparity in population control rates between different parts of Xinjiang. Does this not show that population statistics are complex, and there are potentially unreliable statistics at play,...
...so further investigations are required before any conclusions can be drawn? Is this data also not more consistent with there been no wide-spread plan to target Uyghurs, but instead a sporadic application of birth-control laws on an as needed basis for each region?
I note you concluded there is no genocide, but there are many crimes against humanity. Can you please provide definitions and case law to support your conclusion that what’s happening amounts to these crimes?...
Further, you seem to say that governments would violate section (h) if they target separatists and extremists. Does it concern you that this interpretation effectively means governments will either be powerless to stop extremism or will have to commit a crime against humanity?
I note you advocate for an alternative charge of cultural genocide in Xinjiang. Can you please define what is “culture”? What is distinctive about Uyghur culture (i.e. “Uyghurness”)? And how is it being destroyed in China?...
If a culture allows polygamy, and the gov bans this practice, is it also “cultural genocide”? And so what if it is?
/end
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There's a new report out on the Uyghur genocide issue, purporting to show credible evidence of genocide. This time, there's finally a discussion on the intent of state action, with references! Let's take closer a look at this section in the report:
The section on intent start on page 35, and there are a number of cases used as references. I will focus on Bosnia v Serbia and Croatia v Serbia, because they discuss the issue of proving state intent directly and in the most amount of detail.
In Croatia v Serbia, the ICJ said that the intent must be to achieve physical or biological destruction of the group. Mental harm or forcible transfer of children will constitute genocide, if that is indeed the end goal. (Para. 136, page 64)
This is a thread to examine Adrian Zenz's report on birth control in Xinjiang (XJ). He has complained that people attack his credibility rather than his work, so I will attempt to examine his analysis and claims on their merits. This will take some time... jamestown.org/wp-content/upl…
S0.0: Editor's note includes a fundamental misunderstanding of Chinese language and intentions. 中华民族 is interpreted to mean a uniform "Chinese Nation-Race". However, the Chinese government's definition includes all 56 races within Chinese borders. baike.baidu.com/item/%E4%B8%AD…
S0.1: This is a major error and provides an incorrect context for the whole report. There is an implicit assumption that the government wants assimilation due to use of this term, but the term is actually an all-inclusive term with no implications of assimilation.
This is a thread to examine below report from Campaign for Uyghurs, including evidence presented in the report. There will be 3 main sub-threads, S for Section of Report, R for References provided, and C for my Conclusions. This will be long...
S0.0: Description on page 2 of cover image is incorrect. The image comes from a 3 day event on de-radicalization or anti-extremism, which was held across multiple locations in XJ. Participants included religious figures who gave speeches. Source: web.archive.org/web/2018082015…
S0.1: Here are some other images from the event. Note the prevalence of both Uyghur and Chinese text.
Epic rant @DanielDumbrill, congrats on the 100k, and looking forward to the Xinjiang video. One topic that I would be interested to hear more of is the missing evidence if there is in fact a genocide happening in XJ. My thoughts below.
What would you do if you were being persecuted for your religion or race? Run!
Therefore, if there is a large scale persecution of Uyghurs, with 1m in camps already, then I would expect a majority of the population to be seeking refugee status in neighbouring muslim countries.
This map clearly shows that there are few refugee camps in the 4 countries directly bordering XJ. Most of those are refugees from Afghanistan. The bottom right of the map also shows a bunch of refugee camps near Myanmar, i.e. from the Rohingya genocide.
1. Successfully brainwashed at least 95% of their 1.4b population (more efficient than God) 2. Able to create a new virus and direct it to attack their opponents 3. Able to control rainfall in order to drown Southern Chinese villages
4. Needed to do 2 & 3 to hide disappointing GDP figures, even though their GDP is completely made up 5. Able to make people forget their own language and culture, through requiring minimum Mandarin proficiency for students