Yellow Lab Life Capital Profile picture
Apr 17, 2021 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Koala wonders who could be a benificiary of a carbon price / trading mechanism being implemented in China, some slides 1/n
Anyone else feel like a caipirinha or just the koala? 2/n
Koala wonders why Twiggy & FMG are investing so much in the potential of hydrogen? 3/n
The data kind of says it all don't you think 4/n
These premiums are not well understood by the public buyside 5/n
And that scrap will be our savior hypothesis? Ah, speak for yourself but the koala prefers high quality steel that will accomplish what is required of it in a building or an automobile 6/n
It's amazing how maintaining a library of old presentations over the years is a unique resource to understand where the world is going and what trends are accelerating 7/n
Especially when you realize the data shows EAFs still require metallics to supplement their scrap feeds (which a separate topic entirely, scrap is going to get weird next 10 years) 8/n
So what's the conclusion here?

Take step back from the last qtr, the last yr, or even the last 2 yrs, the longer term trends are there but everyone is just focused on the next print & their next bonus cycle

Oh, and Simandou is 10+ yrs away from hitting 100MM tpa production 9/9

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More from @YellowLabLife

Jun 3, 2024
A "way too early" but let's start the conversation poll question from the koala...

Fast forward 6-12 months...Blackwater is running well

Whitehaven bids $4-5 billion for the Anglo Coal business and let's call it...

$3 billion new debt
$1 billion of price contingent
$1 billion from cash / new equity

Do you as a Whitehaven shareholder worry if the equity is issued at >A$10/sh?

1/n
Reason the koala is pondering this is:

1) BHP views were made clear in Miami

2) Gary is dialed in

3) If not Whitehaven what proven western operator can keep Gary honest?

If the world's views on coking coal are evolving as they appear to be...

Wouldn't you be happy issuing 150MM shares (A$1.5 billion) to basically LBO Anglo Coal?

It's not "BMA" or EVR, but...Anglo Coal + Blackwater/Daunia is a beautiful set up

You end up back at ~950MM shares (not including th 30MM of earn out that will never be issued)

BUT...you now have Blackwater, Daunia, and Anglo Coal in the portfolio

2/n
You need coking coal not to crack but...where is the wreckless BMA supply growth of the 2010s? It's not there in the next few years

Fast forward to 2027/28 with the Blackwater/Daunia & Anglo Coal acquisition debt paid down materially...

You've created an Australian coal champion...

3/n
Read 4 tweets
May 21, 2024
The koala thinks Anglo American $AAL.L should "sell the company" but only accept bids where everything but the copper business is spun out in a NewCo to Anglo shareholders

And the acquiror takes on all capital gains tax liability risk going forward in Chile (not like Anglo will have any assets to claim against)

If you read the tea leaves, even if you think copper is $4.50-5/lb or higher per year on average today through 2030 the koala suspects you know the marsupial is right

In fact, if Duncan & the board did this, arguably the bids if you use a Freeport $FCX multiple on attributable EBITDA (see what the koala did there) would value Collahuasi, Los Bronces, Quellaveco & Sakatti at >GBP20/sh aka...the unaffected share price of Anglo American

This was going to be a long form but the drop bear says whatever, let's send it...time to talk strategy for Anglo even as the koala suspects they fend of $BHP 1/n
Lets look at Freeport 1Q24...

You can see consolidated EBITDA is >$2.2Bn but "attributable" is $1.24 Bn

Copper up but so is gold and...sorry but all the gold is in Indonesia

This was realizing $3.94/lb copper & $2,145/oz gold...w/e though...

Core point is this... 2/n
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Factor in the $1.4Bn in cash attributable to NCI in Indonesia...

$54.25/sh
1.44Bn shares
$78Bn market cap
$1.7 Bn net debt ($0.3 ex-smelter + $1.4Bn NCI cash)
~$80Bn enterprise value

Or maybe we offset the NCI cash with debt at PT-FI, doesn't matter if we use $78Bn or $80Bn at enterprise value

The attributable EBITDA at ~$4 copper is...~$5Bn

Oh and the FCF net of NCI dividends (Indonesia / Grasberg) is de-minimis

EVERBODY - the koala gives you the insane 14x true EBITDA multiple everyone else in mining lusts and craves over...

2b/n
Read 22 tweets
Mar 3, 2024
Might long form this thought but true cost of capital for marginal 3rd/4th quartile producers is actually 1.5-2x the cost of equity, and that’s why everyone gets LT in steep cost curve commodities like iron ore and lithium prices wrong, it’s much higher 1/n
Because there will be quarters or even years you are fcf negative, so bank credit isn’t available, but you also need the cash on hand to fund those periods of burn

Means the first year of a windfall doesn’t go to shareholders but to replenishing the “rainy day” fund 2/n
Sure you have your first quartile world class tier 1 assets but remember the koala said steep cost curve commodities, those by definition have a scarcity of those assets. A good counter example is say aluminum where cheap Chinese coal, Russian hydro have basically flattened the cost curve 3/n
Read 8 tweets
Jan 27, 2024
The koala's head hurts reading this report from @CruxInvestor because we aren't provided a simple year by year model just a bunch of LOM tables and then the occasional bar chart but alas we must peservere through horrific presentation sometimes in the eucalyptus tree

And while this analysis was a headache to read, the koala fully disagrees with it.

So let's have some weekend fun ripping this apart drop bear style and defend the honor of AlphaMoon $AFM.V
1/n
Let's old school thread this...struggling to reconcile this forecast production plan with this from the PEA

When the maiden RE at Mpama has 4.27MM tonnes at 2.47%

Since ROM head grade is 2.21% that implies 11.7% dilution, so 4.27MM tonnes is actually 4.77MM tonnes, 468ktpd, that's 10 years

That's aggressive resource conversion math by the marsupial but...10 years versus... 5 full years and two half years? (The red bars)

How...why?

2/nImage
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Revenue wise, the company says they have a 10 year mine life and the production rate will be 20kt tin per year

Worth noting Alphamin reported on a "tin contained in concentrate" basis

$25k * 20kt is $$500MM USD revenue

10 years of that is $5Bn, not the ~$3Bn Crux has for LOM revenue

3/n
Read 13 tweets
Jan 11, 2024
Many many thoughts and ponderings in the eucalyptus tree after this initial pilgrimage to a new part of the world

1/n
If you are a big mining house, Friedland, or Lundin…the Saudis are keen for those sorts of well established trophy/world class assets

If you are not, it’s a different game

2/n
Acquiring/partnering with foreign expertise to import it is a focus

Many Saudi groups very successful in other industries (real estate, infrastructure, logistics) who have no experience in metals & mining seem to look at the IE / Maaden deal and say “can we do that too?”

3/n
Read 17 tweets
Jul 18, 2023
It'll never happen, so you know what, let's talk about it

Let the koala tell you about an SPV it would love to do but could never raise the money for because its for a public equity

Let's talk about the hypothetical Warrior Met Coal $HCC Poison Pill SPV idea

1/n
Not going to get into the valuation, Blue Creek, etc

Lord knows we've talked about that before...

TLDR - $200/t met LT with Blue Creek, $8-10/sh EPS until way beyond the horizon

Let's talk the NOLs

2/n
When Warrior emerged from Chapter 11 and IPO'd in 2017, the company as part of the re-org ended up with these 382 Transfer Restrictions

The TLDR - no one can go over 5% ownership without fucking up the NPV of the NOLs

Why do those matter? 3/n Image
Read 15 tweets

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