“I have money in the bank that I don’t know what to do with. I have never invested in stocks before. Where do I begin?”
I'm not a financial advisor but I can relate. You want to compound your capital but also be prudent and not gamble. Here is my advice
Some general advice:
• Diversify broadly. If you don't know what you're doing, just buy everything.
• Avoid leverage. Ruin kills compounding.
• Make contrarian bets. Buy before others do.
• Focus on long-term value. The long-term is easier to predict than the short-term.
1. First invest in freehold property with leverage
Most people who buy property do well because:
• True underlying inflation is probably 3%+
• You can use 5x leverage if not more
That causes the return on your initial housing deposit to reach double-digits. Hard to beat.
2. Set up an online brokerage account
I like Interactive Brokers and Saxo Bank for developed markets. For Asian EM, I recommend Boom Securities (HK) or Monex (Japan). Decent execution, market access, low commissions.
For EM, don't overtrade. Transaction costs can be very high.
3. Diversify broadly
Across:
• Property (including your own house)
• Equities: Equal-weighted ETFs
• Cash / bonds: Gov bonds or corporate bonds, especially if near retirement but money loser otherwise
• Commodities: True commodity funds or commodity producer equities.
4. If you have an interest in stock speculation, experiment with small money.
Your edge is as a consumer. Possible criteria:
• Product is unique / faces no competition
• Still potential to double in size
• PE below 20x
• Low debt
• Not popular among friends
5. Check your portfolio a maximum 4x per year
If you over-trade, you lose both commission money and panic out of positions. Just read earnings results 4x per year then form a view of whether fundamentals are improving or deteriorating. If the latter, you might want to get out.
2/ High-profile names like Diageo, Pernod Ricard and Brown Forman are finally starting to show signs of life.
It could be due to hedge funds degrossing, but also signs of industry inventories peaking.
3/ The overall picture hasn't been great: in the Asia-Pacific, 30% of people report drinking less, while only 15% are drinking more. India being the only exception.
1/ Indonesia is conducting one of the largest land grabs in modern history.
Since March 2025, the government has seized over 4 million hectares of oil palm plantations. That’s an area the size of Switzerland, or roughly 30% of Indonesia’s total palm oil acreage.
2/ The justification? The government claims these plantations are in protected "forest zones."
But it looks more like outright nationalization. Assets are being transferred to a new SOE, "Agrinas Palma Nusantara," led by retired generals tied to President Prabowo.
3/ This will have broad ramifications. Indonesia produces 58% of the world’s palm oil.
With 30% of the country’s supply now under state control, palm oil prices are likely headed higher. Supply chains for everything from snacks to cosmetics will be affected.
Charts / price:
• Trading View (free but delay lag)
• Koyfin (free but delay)
• IBKR (pay for real-time prices for each market)
• Godel terminal for NASDAQ ($80/month)
News:
• Twitter search (free)
• Google Alerts (free)
• IBKR (free)
• The Fly On the Wall ($45/month)
• Godel terminal ($80/month)
.@Nate93658762 suggested I read the annual report of Haad Thip HTC TB. Here's what I learnt
Haad Thip is a Coca-Cola bottler in Southern Thailand across 14 provinces. The typical brands, incl Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Minute Maid. Founded in 1969, two manufacturing plants. Seems to be a steady grower. 80% market share in sugar-sweetened soft drinks in the south.
91% sparking beverages and the rest non-carbonated (presumably Minute Maid).