“I have money in the bank that I don’t know what to do with. I have never invested in stocks before. Where do I begin?”
I'm not a financial advisor but I can relate. You want to compound your capital but also be prudent and not gamble. Here is my advice
Some general advice:
• Diversify broadly. If you don't know what you're doing, just buy everything.
• Avoid leverage. Ruin kills compounding.
• Make contrarian bets. Buy before others do.
• Focus on long-term value. The long-term is easier to predict than the short-term.
1. First invest in freehold property with leverage
Most people who buy property do well because:
• True underlying inflation is probably 3%+
• You can use 5x leverage if not more
That causes the return on your initial housing deposit to reach double-digits. Hard to beat.
2. Set up an online brokerage account
I like Interactive Brokers and Saxo Bank for developed markets. For Asian EM, I recommend Boom Securities (HK) or Monex (Japan). Decent execution, market access, low commissions.
For EM, don't overtrade. Transaction costs can be very high.
3. Diversify broadly
Across:
• Property (including your own house)
• Equities: Equal-weighted ETFs
• Cash / bonds: Gov bonds or corporate bonds, especially if near retirement but money loser otherwise
• Commodities: True commodity funds or commodity producer equities.
4. If you have an interest in stock speculation, experiment with small money.
Your edge is as a consumer. Possible criteria:
• Product is unique / faces no competition
• Still potential to double in size
• PE below 20x
• Low debt
• Not popular among friends
5. Check your portfolio a maximum 4x per year
If you over-trade, you lose both commission money and panic out of positions. Just read earnings results 4x per year then form a view of whether fundamentals are improving or deteriorating. If the latter, you might want to get out.
1/ Indonesia is conducting one of the largest land grabs in modern history.
Since March 2025, the government has seized over 4 million hectares of oil palm plantations. That’s an area the size of Switzerland, or roughly 30% of Indonesia’s total palm oil acreage.
2/ The justification? The government claims these plantations are in protected "forest zones."
But it looks more like outright nationalization. Assets are being transferred to a new SOE, "Agrinas Palma Nusantara," led by retired generals tied to President Prabowo.
3/ This will have broad ramifications. Indonesia produces 58% of the world’s palm oil.
With 30% of the country’s supply now under state control, palm oil prices are likely headed higher. Supply chains for everything from snacks to cosmetics will be affected.
Charts / price:
• Trading View (free but delay lag)
• Koyfin (free but delay)
• IBKR (pay for real-time prices for each market)
• Godel terminal for NASDAQ ($80/month)
News:
• Twitter search (free)
• Google Alerts (free)
• IBKR (free)
• The Fly On the Wall ($45/month)
• Godel terminal ($80/month)
.@Nate93658762 suggested I read the annual report of Haad Thip HTC TB. Here's what I learnt
Haad Thip is a Coca-Cola bottler in Southern Thailand across 14 provinces. The typical brands, incl Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Minute Maid. Founded in 1969, two manufacturing plants. Seems to be a steady grower. 80% market share in sugar-sweetened soft drinks in the south.
91% sparking beverages and the rest non-carbonated (presumably Minute Maid).
Michael Price: sell when earnings growth is coming to an end, for example 1) when the return on invested capital is declining 2) business recessions are coming 3) industry cycles
Philip Fisher: "If the job has been correctly done when a common stock is purchased, the time to sell it is - almost never"
Exceptions: 1) you made a mistake in your original appraisal 2) the company ceases to qualify under the same appraisal method