1/ Indonesia is conducting one of the largest land grabs in modern history.

Since March 2025, the government has seized over 4 million hectares of oil palm plantations. That’s an area the size of Switzerland, or roughly 30% of Indonesia’s total palm oil acreage. 2/ The justification? The government claims these plantations are in protected "forest zones."

But it looks more like outright nationalization. Assets are being transferred to a new SOE, "Agrinas Palma Nusantara," led by retired generals tied to President Prabowo.

Let's compare the valuations of the US with Southeast Asia (1/x) Grocery retailing:
US: Walmart @ 38x P/E w growth of 5% pa
Southeast Asia: Puregold @ 10x w growth of 10% pa

How to bootstrap a Bloomberg terminal in 2025: Charts / price:
• Trading View (free but delay lag)
• Koyfin (free but delay)
• IBKR (pay for real-time prices for each market)
• Godel terminal for NASDAQ ($80/month)

The bear case for US stocks: Everyone in the world is chasing US tech stocks, and MSCI World is now 73% US with the top 10 mostly US tech.

.@Nate93658762 suggested I read the annual report of Haad Thip HTC TB. Here's what I learnt Haad Thip is a Coca-Cola bottler in Southern Thailand across 14 provinces. The typical brands, incl Coke, Fanta, Sprite, Minute Maid. Founded in 1969, two manufacturing plants. Seems to be a steady grower. 80% market share in sugar-sweetened soft drinks in the south.

When should you sell, if ever?

Let's dig into the literature Michael Price: sell when earnings growth is coming to an end, for example 1) when the return on invested capital is declining 2) business recessions are coming 3) industry cycles

Loved the book Mao's America by @XVanFleet. It discusses the similarities between Marxism in the United States today and during the Cultural Revolution in China in the 1960s and 70s.

Here are the key takeaways from the book (1/x) A core tenet of Marxism is about dividing people into groups: oppressors and victims. For example, capitalists exploiting workers, encouraging workers to engage in class struggle.

But in reality, Marxist ideas are used by power-hungry politicians to bring down their own enemies.

I wrote a post about how to spot deception, based on the book Spy the Lie by Phil Houston and two other co-authors.

Here are the key take-aways from the book: When trying to get at the truth, you'll want to ask specific questions and then 1) listen and 2) look for reactions from the other person to that question.

These reactions will include verbal such as failure to answer the question and non-verbal such as touching your face.

Finally breaking even on my Substack after all personal expenses, after roughly 2.5 years. A huge weight lifted off my shoulders. And super grateful to be able to do what I love - turning over rocks in Asia.

I can't say that I've reached huge success, but a few lessons (1/8): 1. Write about a passion

If you manage money, you can easily take a few days off and read books or whatever.

If you're writing research, not so much. You'll feel pressure to produce. Which makes it super important that you have a passion for what you're writing.

On Egerton Capital's John Armitage's investment style, sourced from James Morton's 1997 book "Investing With the Grand Masters" (1/x) BACKGROUND

• Started at Morgan Greenfell, where he ran the European Growth Trust beating practically all of his peers
• Founded Egerton Capital in 1994 with William Bollinger, one of the early employees Nicolas Tangen now at Norges Bank
• Has managed money for George Soros

Lessons from the Excess Returns video
1. Supply & demand
2. Remember base rates
3. Recognise you are average
4. Data over narrative
5. Diversify
6. Write down thinking to learn
7. Assume you have no edge
8. Don't rely on predictions 9. Portfolio structure over picking individual securities
10. Not emphasising valuation short-term
11. Don't panic and sell
12. Obsess over past mistakes
13. Stick to what you believe in
14. Endure inevitable periods of underperformance
15. Look at each position as if new

Boustead Singapore (BOCS SP):

Small-cap conglomerate based in Singapore. It's run by legendary entrepreneur FF Wong, who has an origin story that reminds me of Li Ka-Shing's.

The business has suffered from the post-2015 downturn in oil, but the other businesses are doing fine. The company has four major divisions:
1. Industrial property development in Singapore
2. Geospatial software services in Asia/Australia
3. Energy engineering services
4. Healthcare equipment

I absolutely loved Felix Oberholzer-Gee's book "Better Simpler Strategy". Best I've read since Michael Porter and Clayton Christensen. His key point is that a firm's strategy should either focus on increasing a customer's willingness-to-pay (WTP) or employees/suppliers willingness-to-sell (WTP).

Value creation over value capture. Monetisation of a service by raising prices can come later.

I watched 12 Angry Men the other day. One of the best and most underrated studies of the prejudices + biases that cause us to become irrational.

In the movie, 12 jurors are tasked with trying to decide whether an 18-year old buy should be convicted of first-degree murder or not. Juror #1 (Martin Balsam): Avoiding conflict

The foreman, the person running the show. He's a coach, trying to encourage others and doesn't challenge anyone.

What I learnt from the biography of Adolf Lundin.

He was the founder of the Lundin group of companies (IPCO, Africa Oil, Lundin Gold, Lucara Diamond, Bluestone Resources, etc.)

Thanks for recommending the book to me @TereaAfrica007 Who was Adolf Lundin?

Adolf Lundin ("Dolfi") grew up in Äppelviken in suburban Stockholm as one of six children to a Swedish chemist father and an Austrian immigrant mother.

He studied mining engineering, ended up starting a fund and then built an oil & gas and mining empire.

Adolf Lundin. Entrepreneurs are cut from a different cloth... The way business is dealt with in emerging markets...

European stocks that have halved (1/x) BASF

Key take-aways from Dan Blumenthal's book The China Nightmare: The Grand Ambitions of a Decaying State Beijing does not want war with Washington. It just wants to undermine the pillars of US strategy and foreign policy. It wants to carve out an authoritarian sphere of influence, making Asia repressive and closed.

How people lie with statistics: Sample bias due to:
• Surveyed individuals may not be truthful
• There might be a bias in how the sample has been selected (eg who owns a computer and not)
• Words may be interpreted differently by individuals

I'm impressed how they managed to build a successful business in such a short time

open.spotify.com/episode/48zeyz… Do everything in house.... pay someone to teach you.

Worrisome enough for me to turn notifications on for Shugart's account

https://twitter.com/tshugart3/status/1553406681710739459

Going down the rabbit hole.

Live fire exercises

https://twitter.com/HolguerEC/status/1553416683817238528?t=Gdl0S_MK9_zmfr87WB0EIA&s=19