To (quickly) answer a few points on my Sweden column in the Telegraph - its strategy was to minimise all deaths. This meant the ones counted daily (Covid) plus indirect deaths, counted later. On Covid deaths, it's about the European average...
...by avoiding lockdown, Sweden sought to minimise (long-term) collateral damage on society & health. On total 'excess death' last year, it's a bit lower than European average...
...but the age of those who died is also a factor. Lockdowns risk deterring use of health service for cancer, heart disease etc and leading to excess death amongst the under-65s. Deaths in this age group declined in Sweden last year, but rose in UK...
...it's impossible to say if this was a lockdown effect, but to Swedes it's part of a jigsaw puzzle. The below shows excess death last year, adjusted for age....
...Sweden tolerates a higher Covid level than countries pursuing a strategy of suppression. This means Sweden comes out badly in Covid league tables: NB this one on current Covid levels...
...But Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, points to Sweden's lower position in Covid deaths...
...Tegnell makes this point in an SvD interview today. He says vaccination has broken the relationship between high case numbers and high death numbers... svd.se/de-har-hoga-do…
...but Tegnell also says it will take months - or maybe years - for the whole picture to become clear. This is NOT to say Sweden was right and UK wrong. Just that there's more to this story than a Covid league table.
Our most-read article yesterday was an in-depth, data-rich analysis by Prof Simon Wood - looking at statistical assumptions and lockdown modelling spectator.co.uk/article/covid-…
We have another one coming on Saturday by Prof Philip Thomas, and I suspect it will be our most-read piece that day too. All told, the digital era has given a chance to get stuck into data-based articles in a way that’s impractical with print.
The setback for AstraZeneca vaccine today need to be set in context. By being easily-stored (and made here) UK has protected more people than any comparably-sized country...
The AZ success is reflected not just in trials but antibody studies. Vaccine success has helped 55% of population acquire Covid antibodies: a figure that rises all the time...
This has helped push Covid cases for the over-60s down markedly faster than those of other age groups...
Sweden's premise: if you level with the public, share details of Covid battle in real time, you foster trust. People will socially distance on a voluntary basis, "flattening the curve" enough for hospitals to cope. Today, only a quarter of Sweden's intensive care units being used
Big difference with UK is data transparency. Sweden releases live data on Covid patients in real time: here is their Covid portal icuregswe.org/en/data--resul…