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Max Roser Profile picture
@MaxCRoser
Apr 18, 2021 • 6 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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Two months ago India confirmed 11,300 cases per day.

This shows the rise of confirmed cases since then.
A straight line on a logarithmic axis tells you that you are looking at exponential growth with a constant growth rate.

Now India confirms more than 200,000 cases a day.
This is how the rate of positive tests changed in that same period.

A strongly rising positive rate tells us that the testing efforts are not keeping up with the size of the outbreak.

(here is all the data: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…)
COVID deaths in India have now surpassed the previous peak from last September.
Both, confirmed cases and confirmed deaths are increasing at a rate of about 60% per week.

The growth rate of cases at the top and of deaths below.

All the data is here: ourworldindata.org/explorers/coro…
One crucial question is by how much confirmed cases differ from the actual true number of cases.

The IHME estimates the true number of cases and this is how their estimates compare with the reported number of cases in India.

[we publish it here ourworldindata.org/covid-models]
On April 2 the ratio between confirmed cases to true cases was estimated to be about 20.
(i.e. 5% of cases are detected)

If this is accurate, then the current number of infections in India is about 4.4 million per day.
(220,000 confirmed cases times 20)

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More from @MaxCRoser

Max Roser Profile picture
Apr 3, 2024
Until 50 years ago, CO₂ emissions developed in lockstep with economic growth in France.

Since the early 1970s, the opposite has been true: emissions declined as people in France got richer. Image
To produce consumption-based CO₂ emissions, statisticians need access to detailed global trade statistics. This data is, therefore, not available over the very long run. But it is available for the last three decades and are shown in this chart. Image
This is one big reason why France succeeded in this way — the large reduction of fossil fuel electricity. Image
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
May 25, 2023
Some statistics are worth knowing by heart:

The average – mean – income in the world per person is $18 per day.

This is adjusted for differences in price levels.

It means that if incomes could get perfectly equally distributed in the world all of us would live on $18 per day.
For reference, poverty lines in high-income countries are typically around $30 per day, or a bit less than $1000 per month.

(This is also taking differences price levels into account.)
This data source is the new Poverty and Inequality Platform platform, and you can explore this data here: ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-…
Read 6 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
May 21, 2023
Average incomes in Sweden have doubled while CO2 emissions have halved. Image
Some are commenting that economic growth is not a valuable achievement.

It depends on your values how you view growth.

I think economic growth is important, because it makes it possible for society to leave poverty behind.

👇 This shows the data for Sweden in these 5 decades. Image
The share living in poverty not only depends on growth, but also the inequality.

But growth is crucial. Without large growth it would have not been possible for the majority to live on more than $30 per day.

Five decades ago the average income in Sweden was $18 per day. Image
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
Apr 27, 2023
Why does powerful Artificial Intelligence pose a risk that could make all of our lives much, much worse in the coming years?

There are many good texts on question, but they are often long.

🧵I'm trying to summarize the fundamental problem in a brief Twitter thread.
The fundamental reason is that there is nothing more dangerous than intelligence used for destructive purposes.
Some technologies are incredibly destructive. Nuclear bombs for example.

If used, they would kill billions of us.
ourworldindata.org/nuclear-weapon…

But in the bigger picture nuclear weapons are a downstream consequence of intelligence.
No intelligence, no nuclear weapons
Read 21 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
Jun 1, 2022
Research suggests that many children – especially in the world’s poorest countries – learn only very little in school.
What can we do to improve this?

My new post is out ourworldindata.org/better-learning

👇 I'll write a short thread below.
For many children schools do not live up to their promise.

This is a problem in rich countries.
But it tends to be a much larger problem in poorer countries, as this data from @jpazvd and colleagues shows.
Until recently this did not receive the attention it deserves. Also because the data was not there.

The data focused on the quantity of education – how long children are in school – but not the quality of education.
Read 16 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
Mar 15, 2022
My new post is out: ourworldindata.org/longtermism
It is about humanity's past and future.

I don't know how to summarize this post in a thread. But I can share the two visuals I made for it. 👇
• Demographers estimate that 117 billion humans have been born.
• Almost 8 billion are alive now.

To bring these large numbers into perspective I made this visualization.

A giant hourglass. But instead of measuring the passage of time, it measures the passage of people. /2 Image
How does our past and present compare with the future?
We don't know. But what I learned from writing this post is that our future is potentially very, very big.

I try to convey this here. But even this visualization shows only a small fraction of humanity's potential future.
/3 Image
Read 4 tweets

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