Thread on my 10 biggest losers since inception and quick lessons learned, because why not:
(In alphabetical order -- most cost somewhere ~1-3% of performance)
Long Camping World – don’t make excuses for lousy management, no matter how “cheap” a stock appears. Don’t get cute flipping long on shorts. It's not clever (the other direction is mostly fine).
Quaker / $KWR is currently our highest conviction short, bringing together: imminent catalysts, deteriorating macro, extreme over-valuation (obscured in B’berg + others). Details:
1/ Despite quickly rising risks on multiple fronts – macro, M&A execution, bal. sheet – KWR shares trade at ~50% EBITDA mult premium vs. historical avg. (15x vs. 10x).
2/ Bloomberg + others incorrectly show valuation as in-line w/historic avg (10x) due to pending acq’n of Houghton – and mismatch between PF EBITDA est’s + standalone cap structure.