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Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
@_JakubJanda
Apr 19, 2021 • 31 tweets • 10 min read • Read on X
DETAILS ON RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE ON THE CZECH SOIL:

Czech Republic is a nest of Russian intelligence agencies, often used against Germany due to geographic proximity.

Here we explain the cases and scope in detailed @_EuropeanValues Report: europeanvalues.cz/en/questions-a… Image
UPDATE:

Foreign Policy Committee of the Czech Senate asks the Czech government to "decrease number of employees of Russian diplomacy in the Czech Republic to one".

In other words: to expel the whole Russian diplomatic presence and keep just the Russian Ambassador.
I LOVE THIS VIEW:

18 Russian intelligence officers (SVR and GRU) are leaving Czech territory right now.

More coming. Image
Here is the source:
Monday 19 April:

Czech PM @AndrejBabis: "it was not act of state terrorism (of Russia against the Czech Republic)",calls it "terrorist act of Russian intelligence officers against goods of Bulgarian arms dealer".

Note: PM Babiš is politically dependent on Czech President Zeman.
Thanks to @enkocz & other sources, we now have full names of SVR & GRU officers who were hiding under diplomatic cover in Czech Republic. They were expelled from the Czech soil, left today.

18 expelled, below are already identified names as stated in Czech Diplomatic List:
Mr. Alexander Anatolievich ANTONOV, First Secretary /Political Affairs/

Mr. Alexey Vladimirovich KOLMAKOV, First Secretary

Mr. Evgeny Nikolaevich GOLIKOV, Third Secretary /Political Affairs/

Mr. Andrey Alexandrovich MAKARENKO, First Secretary /Political Affairs/
Mr. Dmitrii Alekseevich MOSKOVKIN, Deputy Commercial Representative

Mr. Anton Anatolievich BELOV, Second Secretary /Administrative and Financial Affairs/

Mr. Maxim Alexandrovich KRAILIN, First Secretary /Polit. Affairs/

Mr. Konstantin Alexandrovich SHEVCHUK, Second Secretary
Mr. Yury Evgenievich EGOROV, Attaché /Political Affairs/

Full details:

denikn.cz/608073/mluvci-…
Here are several profiles and pictures of SVR/GRU officers posing as diplomats on the Czech soil:

evropsky-rozhled.eu/kdo-byl-vyhost…
Here @bellingcat reveals new details:

NEW INFORMATION: Col.Gen Averyanov headed this GRU operation by himself. That shows the strategic importance of the Vrbětice case.

See below for more details:

bellingcat.com/news/2021/04/2… Image
Here @bellingcat explains that there were multiple preparatory trips of GRU officers: Image
We now know thanks to @bellingcat that Colone General Averyanov himself was involved. That means strategic level importance. Image
More details on the GRU staff involved. Image
Here @bellingcat put together a map of which GRU officers travelled for this Vrbětice operation in 2014: Image
GRU officers landed in Prague, moved to Ostrava and left for Austria by car after the Vrbětice explosions happened. Image
Here are the fake documents GRU used. Image
On GRU staff involved - the most senior operational leader: Image
(THREAD) HERE ARE OFFICIAL CZECH FOREIGN MINISTRY NUMBER ON RUSSIA-CZECH DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS (AS OF 20 April 2021):

Czech diplomatic personnel on Russian territory before expulsions: 58 (26 diplomats, 32 technical staff)

(Source data: Czech MFA Communications Director) ImageImage
Russia expelled 20 Czechs (16 diplomats and 4 technical staff) = 34 % of Czech diplomatic personnel was sent home.

Czech diplomatic personnel on Russian territory after expulsions: 38 (10 diplomats, 28 technical staff)
We do not count local staff (Russian citizen working for Czech diplomatic posts on Russian territory), because they do not have diplomatic immunity and cannot be diplomatically expelled from Russian territory.
Russian diplo personnel before expulsions: 129 (48 diplos, 81 tech staff)

Czech Republic expelled 18 SVR + GRU officers (14 diplos and 4 tech staff) = 14 % of Russian diplo personnel in

Russian diplo personnel on CZ territory after expulsions: 111 (34 diplos, 77 tech staff)
AFTER THE GRU ATTACK REVELATIONS, HERE IS WHAT HAPPENED (@_EuropeanValues did the following math):

Czechia has expelled 14 % of Russian diplomatic staff from its territory (18 of 129), in response Russia has expelled 34 % of Czech diplo staff from its territory (20 of 58).
TOTAL NUMBER: Russia now has 2,9x more individuals (111 to 38) with diplomatic immunity in Czechia than Czech Republic has in Russia. Before this, it was 2,2x more (129 to 58), so the disparity increased.
DIPLOMATS: Russia now has 3,4x more diplomats (34 to 10) in Czechia than Czech Republic has in Russia. Before this, it was 1,8x more (48 to 26), so the disparity almost doubled.
TECHNICAL STAFF WITH DIPLOMATIC IMMUNITY: Russia now has 2,8x more tech staff (with diplo immunity - 77 to 28) in Czechia than Czechia has in Russia. Before this, it was 2,5x more (81 to 32), so the disparity increased.

Russia now has three-times larger diplo presence in CZ.
In Slovakia, more reaction expected:

spectator.sme.sk/c/22642043/rus…
BREAKING:

Early this morning, Czech Police arrested 10+ Czech citizen who were working under command of GRU, many of them travelled to Donbas to engage in terorrism against Ukraine.

= Russia organised a network of Czech terrorists on Czech territory.

zpravy.aktualne.cz/domaci/ncoz-pr…)
Open letter organised by @_EuropeanValues: Czech politicians and security experts on 11 policy moves against Russia hostile actions:
europeanvalues.cz/ceska-reakce-n…)
In 2016, Czech counterintelligence @biscz said that Russian intelligence officers are assisting Czech citizen to travel to Ukraine where they fight for the Russian side:

(full annual report: bis.cz/public/site/bi…) Image
CORRECTION: Sources say it was 5-6 arrests and about 15 individuals brought for questioning.

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More from @_JakubJanda

Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
Feb 24
CENTRAL EUROPE - JAPAN ALLIANCE BUILDING
(THREAD)

@_EuropeanValues team led by myself, @yehaoqin, @ZuzaZhenzhi & David Toman spent a week in Tokyo talking to our Japanese friends.

We have signed cooperation plan with @UTokyo_Rcast of @UTokyo_News at the Czech Embassy in Tokyo @Czechia_JP, thanks to support of Czech Ambassador Martin Klučar.

What have we learned during almost 30 meetings & briefings from our Japanese counterparts?Image
During a public symposium at @UTokyo_News led by @AkiraIgata, we discussed with experts, diplomats and students on European dependencies on will of the Chinese Communist Party, reasons behind Czech and Lithuanian proactive cooperation with Taiwan or lessons for electric car industry between Europe and Japan.Image
Without naming the sources, here is what I heard from many of Japanese government officials and non-governmental experts. Obviously, this is not official public policy of Japan, more like my own impression of what I heard across the meetings in Tokyo:

- Japan is like Poland of Asia. Main U.S. ally, strategic view of the main regional enemy, urgent military build-up, national consensus on what needs to be done.

- Japan is really getting ready to defend from Chinese attack on their region - most likely scenario is Chinese blockade of Taiwan with huge impact on Japan

- Japanese military and intelligence apparatus is boosting its capabilities very very quickly as they believe possible large war might be just a few years away, if China decides for it

- Japanese government is one of few ones really pushing its large businesses to decrease their dependency on Chinese market so an economic collapse does not happen in case of large crisis initiated by China

- Japan is scared by possible Trump presidency and its unpredictability which inly motivates Japanese military & economic security build-up to be ready to face Chinese hostilities possibly alone in a small coalition, in worst case scenario

- Japan really wants substantial @NATO -Japan cooperation, as agreed in official action plan. Many Japanese officials are visibly pissed off about France openly blocking Japan-NATO cooperation. I have never seen any other Asian friends swear so hard about any other democracy like they do about France, considering it a betrayal and France selling out Japanese security to Chinese Communists

- Japan really understands how deterring China from attacking Taiwan is the only way to have global peace survive because Chinese attack on Taiwan would quickly escalate to a globally devastating conflict

- since we are the only EU think-tank with permanent presence & team in Taipei, this was of huge interest of our Japanese partners who asked like "why do almost no Europeans care about protecting Taiwan if you are completely dependent on Taiwanese semiconductors?"Image
Read 7 tweets
Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
Jan 20
(THREAD)

How Indo-Pacific military & policy leaders see the upcoming conflict with Chinese Communists?

What should Europeans be doing to help?

I spent the past week in Honolulu at @PacificForum Integrated Deterrence conference led by @JohnHemmings2 and consulting with allied military folks present.

Here are my take-aways, few on-record by senior leaders, rest are my personal lessons:Image
First, @INDOPACOM Commander Admiral John Aquilino, commanding approx. 375 000 troops, making him one of the most important (operational-level) commanders of the free world today. He said (rough quotes):

- we are in most dangerous time of last four decades, listing China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and extremists as threats, often they are very interconnected

- China presses for its illegal claim over the Philippines, ignoring valid international court ruling

- I do need your voice, dear allies and partners, we must all say what is the threat. We must be a team or we will be run over.

- when times comes for shooting, I do not care about details, I only care if it hits. We will need to hit thousand of targets.

- our goals: 1) prevent this conflict (with China), 2) if we cannot prevent, fight like hell to win

- on how he is trying to do quick changes in generally rigid systems: „the only thing which likes changes is wet baby“Image
Second, @USPacificFleet Admiral Samuel Paparo spoke about how the possible strategic-level conflict in the region could look like. It was pretty chilling.

And how systematically is China preparing for an offensive war.

If Alaska becomes a target of Chinese attack, US can activate (NATO Article 5) for collective defense.Image
Read 5 tweets
Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
Sep 17, 2023
THREAD: NEW CHINESE ELITE CAPTURE TACTICS IN CZECHIA

After 2 most pro-China political parties (Social Dems and Communists) dropped out of Czech Parliament in late 2021, a pro-U.S./Taiwan 5-party government rules in Prague. China lost all major political allies in Czech politics.
In early 2023, very pro-Taiwan President Petr Pavel replaced pro-China President Miloš Zeman.

Among business, PPF Group which served as most pro-China lobbying body for almost 10 years, is now being pushed out of Chinese market.

Since 2022, Chinese elite capture efforts in Czechia have been on the defensive with politics, businesses or academia turning away from them.

Around mid 2023, Chinese influence operators clearly identified a new opportunity.
Read 9 tweets
Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
May 20, 2023
(THREAD): First major foreign-policy speech by new Czech President @prezidentpavel on his Taiwan policy:

„Much more dangerous in long term is China (than Russia).“

„China is not seeking equal partnerships, but global dominance.“ Image
.@prezidentpavel spoke at Copenhagen Democracy Summit:

„China is clear (..) about its military option regarding Taiwan.“

„Czech Republic has cooperation with Taiwan in many areas and we want to keep it as it is. We have same values (with Taiwan).“

copenhagendemocracysummit.com/2023/sessions/…
.@prezidentpavel: „Chinese mil action ag Taiwan would break not only all principles our societies are built on but also internationally recognised rules-based order. (..) disruption of world trade (..) Taiwan is leading producer of critical commodities but also trade routes (..)"
Read 10 tweets
Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
Apr 16, 2023
(THREAD) CZECH COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE CHIEF ON DEFENDING TAIWAN:

Director of Czech counter-intelligence agency (@biscz) Michal Koudelka recently visited Taiwan. Here is what he told Czech journalist @okundra (@RESPEKT_CZ):

Full interview: respekt.cz/tydenik/2023/1… Image
ON POTENTIAL OF CHINESE ATTACK ON TAIWAN:

„This threat is serious but not imminent at this moment. It is important that we show maximal international unity towards Taiwan. (We should) declare international preparedness to defend Taiwan if it gets attacked, to show to China (...)
(..) "that any attack will massively not pay off. I am certain that China closely watches the same unity which international community shown to Russia over Ukraine, we need to continue in this to make sure China understands this (attacking Taiwan) is not the way forward."
Read 8 tweets
Jakub Janda 楊雅嚳 Profile picture
Jan 30, 2023
NEW CZECH PRESIDENT: QUICK INTRO

Czechia elected @general_pavel as new President. 5 yr term starts on March 8. In 2018, retired from active duty as 4-star army general after leading Czech army & NATO Military Committee. The most internationally successful Czech soldier ever had
.@general_pavel spent his senior career in military diplomacy. As Chairman of NATO Military Committee, he was tasked in 2017 to negotiate with Russian military to de-escalate over NATO-Russia incidents. He know how to deal with Russian terrorists.

(nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…)
New Czech President spent his career in leading Czech Special Forces and later the whole Czech military, becoming Chief of General Staff in 2012 - 2014.

In his early career, he received highest French state medal for saving over 50 French soldiers in Bosnia in 1993.
Read 8 tweets

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