CENTRAL EUROPE - JAPAN ALLIANCE BUILDING
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@_EuropeanValues team led by myself, @yehaoqin, @ZuzaZhenzhi & David Toman spent a week in Tokyo talking to our Japanese friends.

We have signed cooperation plan with @UTokyo_Rcast of @UTokyo_News at the Czech Embassy in Tokyo @Czechia_JP, thanks to support of Czech Ambassador Martin Klučar.

What have we learned during almost 30 meetings & briefings from our Japanese counterparts? During a public symposium at @UTokyo_News led by @AkiraIgata, we discussed with experts, diplomats and students on European dependencies on will of the Chinese Communist Party, reasons behind Czech and Lithuanian proactive cooperation with Taiwan or lessons for electric car industry between Europe and Japan.

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How Indo-Pacific military & policy leaders see the upcoming conflict with Chinese Communists?

What should Europeans be doing to help?

I spent the past week in Honolulu at @PacificForum Integrated Deterrence conference led by @JohnHemmings2 and consulting with allied military folks present.

Here are my take-aways, few on-record by senior leaders, rest are my personal lessons: First, @INDOPACOM Commander Admiral John Aquilino, commanding approx. 375 000 troops, making him one of the most important (operational-level) commanders of the free world today. He said (rough quotes):

- we are in most dangerous time of last four decades, listing China, Russia, North Korea, Iran and extremists as threats, often they are very interconnected

- China presses for its illegal claim over the Philippines, ignoring valid international court ruling

- I do need your voice, dear allies and partners, we must all say what is the threat. We must be a team or we will be run over.

- when times comes for shooting, I do not care about details, I only care if it hits. We will need to hit thousand of targets.

- our goals: 1) prevent this conflict (with China), 2) if we cannot prevent, fight like hell to win

- on how he is trying to do quick changes in generally rigid systems: „the only thing which likes changes is wet baby“

THREAD: NEW CHINESE ELITE CAPTURE TACTICS IN CZECHIA

After 2 most pro-China political parties (Social Dems and Communists) dropped out of Czech Parliament in late 2021, a pro-U.S./Taiwan 5-party government rules in Prague. China lost all major political allies in Czech politics. In early 2023, very pro-Taiwan President Petr Pavel replaced pro-China President Miloš Zeman.

Among business, PPF Group which served as most pro-China lobbying body for almost 10 years, is now being pushed out of Chinese market.

https://twitter.com/_JakubJanda/status/1619992103639220226

(THREAD): First major foreign-policy speech by new Czech President @prezidentpavel on his Taiwan policy:

„Much more dangerous in long term is China (than Russia).“

„China is not seeking equal partnerships, but global dominance.“ .@prezidentpavel spoke at Copenhagen Democracy Summit:

„China is clear (..) about its military option regarding Taiwan.“

„Czech Republic has cooperation with Taiwan in many areas and we want to keep it as it is. We have same values (with Taiwan).“

copenhagendemocracysummit.com/2023/sessions/…

(THREAD) CZECH COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE CHIEF ON DEFENDING TAIWAN:

Director of Czech counter-intelligence agency (@biscz) Michal Koudelka recently visited Taiwan. Here is what he told Czech journalist @okundra (@RESPEKT_CZ):

Full interview: respekt.cz/tydenik/2023/1… ON POTENTIAL OF CHINESE ATTACK ON TAIWAN:

„This threat is serious but not imminent at this moment. It is important that we show maximal international unity towards Taiwan. (We should) declare international preparedness to defend Taiwan if it gets attacked, to show to China (...)

NEW CZECH PRESIDENT: QUICK INTRO

Czechia elected @general_pavel as new President. 5 yr term starts on March 8. In 2018, retired from active duty as 4-star army general after leading Czech army & NATO Military Committee. The most internationally successful Czech soldier ever had .@general_pavel spent his senior career in military diplomacy. As Chairman of NATO Military Committee, he was tasked in 2017 to negotiate with Russian military to de-escalate over NATO-Russia incidents. He know how to deal with Russian terrorists.

(nato.int/cps/en/natohq/…)

(THREAD) How hard Czech Foreign, Trade and EU Ministers criticise Viktor Orbán

Below is the unofficial translation of Czech parliamentary debate on September 1 - 2.

For the first time ever, senior leaders of Czech government call out Viktor Orban as defacto Russian puppet: Czech Foreign Minister @JanLipavsky:

TOP 10 REASONS WHY @SpeakerPelosi TAIWAN TRIP IS A STRATEGIC SUCCESS:

1) Geostrategic defeat for Xitler who is already weakened by his screwed-up handling of covid. It weakens his domestic position within the Chinese Communist Party leadership before this fall. Hugely important. 2) Strategically, China was having initiative in blackmailing democracies over Taiwan.

Chinese leadership was thrown off-balance, clearly did not expect such a symbolic strike right into its propaganda world.

Pelosi action speaks louder than Chinese Commie lies and threats.

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Today, Czech government announced our new Chief of Czech General Staff - General Karel Řehka.

That is huge news, let me explain why. A 47-year old ( = extremely young) one-star General will lead the Czech military in times of largest European war since 1945. He is very hawkish on Russia and China, just led our national cyber agency. See how he got here:

Karel Řehka was born in 1975, went though Czech military education, but also studied at (British) Royal Military Academy at Sandhurst (1997).

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When discussing with many friends within European foreign policy and intelligence establishments on Ukraine, there is possible worst-case scenario discussed: Imagine: Russia offers truce/ceasefire once it:

(1) militarily achieves most of its territorial gain

(2) uses German & French greed to blackmail Ukraine into accepting Russia territorial demands

(3) portrays Ukraine refusing Russian demands as reason for global food crisis

PRINCIPLED & HAWKISH CZECH FOREIGN POLICY IS BACK:

Today, Czech Republic has a new Foreign Minister @JanLipavsky. He is by far the most outspoken foreign policy oriented Czech politician of today.

Let me share some of his most important public quotes on Russia and China: “I do not want Moscow to confuse us with a doormat. I do not want Czechia to become a Russian satellite state again. And I want to continue building a proud, democratic country. A country capable of protecting its citizens and confronting international bullying.”

(April 2020)

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CZECH DOMESTIC COUNTER-INTELLIGENCE AGENCY (@biscz ) 2020 ANNUAL REPORT:

Here are their main assessments on Russian, Chinese and Iranian intelligence ops against the Czech Republic, see below:

Full report: bis.cz/public/site/bi… The message is clear. In 2014, the Russian state organised a bomb explosion in Czech town Vrbětice, which led to two thirds of Russian diplomatic (and intel under diplomatic cover) personnel kicked out of Czech soil in April 2021.

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INCOMING: Czech Republic will have the most hawkish govt in our history.

Yesterday, the incoming 5-party centre-right coalition announced its official coalition agreement.

Let me review foreign/defence/EU/security policy plans:

(full doc: starostove-nezavisli.cz/fmfile/0/files…) New Czech government:

Expected key ministers:

Prime Minister: @P_Fiala (ODS)

Foreign Affairs: @JanLipavsky (Pirates)

Interior: @Vit_Rakusan (STAN)

Defence: @jana_cernochova (ODS)

Trade: @VeslavM (STAN)

(THREAD) @_EuropeanValues Center just published this report: HOW TO PROTECT THE CZECH ECONOMY FROM FOREIGN PREDATORS?

Supported by @CIPEglobal @CIPE_EEA, authored by @phamphi, @MarcikFrantisek, @RichardKraemer7 & myself.

We talked to 30 Czech key govt & business leaders: We asked the Czech govt & business leaders: How to safeguard Czech democracy and fair business environment from (mainly) Chinese state-organised predators?

Full report: europeanvalues.cz/wp-content/upl…

(THREAD) Why I brought a Czech Think Tank to Taiwan

I just moved to Taiwan.

Let me explain why - in my article for @Newsweek.

FULL STORY: newsweek.com/why-i-brought-… THE BIG GAME: The Chinese Communist Party wants to crush liberal democracies and dominate the world order. China wants to conquer and subdue the free and sovereign island for the same reasons Russia invades and murders the people of Ukraine or Georgia.

(THREAD) How Chinese political-intelligence gathering institute based in Hungary hired a Czech anti-Semite and entered Czech Academy of Sciences:

SIT DOWN FOR THIS @Aktualnecz STORY:

Ladislav Zemánek is a Czech neo-Nazi. He was a vice-chairman of a far-right extremist party. Zemánek traveled to a Russia-organised propaganda trip to Donbas - later got sanctioned by Ukraine.

In 2016,Czech court found him guilty of antisemitic crimes, spreading hate against Jews.Attended team-building meetings of Central European neo-Nazis, like Slovak Marian Kotleba:

THREAD:

WHY WE NEED TO GET REAL ON RUSSIA NOW:

EUROPEAN POLICY FAILURE: Why does Russia (and its proxies such as Belarus) keep doing major hostile operations such as using a terrorist-style tactics to kidnap a journalist from a civilian airlines? Since 2014,Russia has been conducting openly hostile na often murderous operations against European democracies:

from violent coup attempt in Montenegro

assassination operations in UK, Germany or Bulgaria,

to blowing up arms depot on NATO soil in Czech Republic or Bulgaria

THREAD: Crash course on possible Czech October election winner:

Czech Republic holds general (parliamentary) elections in October. Current governing parties (centrist/populist ANO, corrupted social democrats ČSSD and treasonous Communists KSČM) are all losing the popular support NOW: ANO dropping to some 20+%, ČSSD and KSČM dancing around 5% threshold needed for entering the next chamber.

POSSIBLE WINNERS: The centrist-liberal coalition (Pirates and Mayors party (STAN)) leading polls with 27-30 %. They are nicknamed “PirSTAN”.

DETAILS ON RUSSIAN INTELLIGENCE ON THE CZECH SOIL:

Czech Republic is a nest of Russian intelligence agencies, often used against Germany due to geographic proximity.

Here we explain the cases and scope in detailed @_EuropeanValues Report: europeanvalues.cz/en/questions-a… UPDATE:

Foreign Policy Committee of the Czech Senate asks the Czech government to "decrease number of employees of Russian diplomacy in the Czech Republic to one".

In other words: to expel the whole Russian diplomatic presence and keep just the Russian Ambassador.

(THREAD) BREAKING NEWS:

Czech Prime Minister @AndrejBabis & VicePM/Interim For.Minister @jhamacek announced that GRU unit 29155 was "involved" in a 2014 explosion of Czech ammo depot (Vrbětice) which killed two Czech citizen.

Response: 18 Russian intelligence officers expelled. WHAT HAPPENED: In 2014, series of explosions devastated ammo storages in Vrbětice, Eastern part of Czech Republic.

50+ ton military ammo stored by a private company (Imex Group) which rented these buildings from Czech Army.

2 civilian employees killed

cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Výbuchy_m…

THREAD:

WHY EUROPE LOSES TO RUSSIA AND CHINA:

Let us have a look to what led to the complete failure of @JosepBorrellF who was completely humiliated in Moscow. It is a strategic problem, not just ad hoc screw-up. Usually, large EU countries select weak High Representatives for Foreign and Security Policy (HiRep) so that HIReps serve as their tools, not as strong players.

So they chose @JosepBorrellF with no real Europe-wide executive track record.