I have published the beta version of a free book on how to think critically about the news and conspiracy theories, called Sharpen Your Axe. I'm going to try and summarize its message in just 20 tweets, with links to my blog on Substack. 1/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/sharpen-your… [Mega-thread]
Cognitive dissonance is an uncomfortable feeling we all feel when we are faced with information that contradicts our identities. Triggering it means you automatically lose an online debate, even if you are right and the other person is wrong. 2/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/emotions-fir…
We should look for some common ground first. So, it is great that conspiracy theorists are taking the first steps into amateur reseach. It is also true that humans (and other members of the primate family) are deeply conspiratorial creatures. 3/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/what-conspir…
My core suggestion is that we should take a probabalistic approach. We should hold our opinions on a sliding scale and adjust them up and down based on the evidence. 4/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/bayesian-sta…
When we look into why people believe strange conspiracy theories, we often see that this speculation is acting as a bodyguard to a failing idea in the face of contradictory evidence. 5/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/conspiracy-t…
One of the hardest lessons is that our gut instinct often leads us astray. We make poor guesses about the world, but then fail to update our guesses based on the evidence. Cognitive dissonance then makes us double down on a wrong starting position. 6/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/your-first-g…
Another hard lesson: Gurus who defend fringe views with a sense of utter certainty are attractive to us. 7/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/the-dark-pow…
When you look deeply at the methodology behind conspiracy theories, you will see something similar to the game of Chinese whispers: Ideas mutate with each telling. 8/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/chinese-whis…
There is a clear contrast between conspiracy theorizing and science. One disregards contradictory evidence, while the other pays a lot of attention to real-world results. 9/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/solar-eclips…
Conspiracy theories often have two sides. One is skeptical of official sources, while the other sets up speculative narratives. The skeptical side is great and we should develop it to a much higher level. 10/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/suspend-judg…
My advice is to read several news sources to try and work out what has happened. Skip the commentary, mostly, and read non-fiction books instead. 11/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/read-several…
Conspiracy theorists often start with an event and then try and work out why it happened based on the assumption that it was planned. This is problematic. 12/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/why
The anti-globalist movement is the source of many conspiracy theories.13/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/anti-globali…
If someone tells you that you need to stop reading the news media, it should be a warning sign that they are about to try and con you. 14/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/in-defence-o…
Well-designed bets are a good way of testing our assumptions and trying to adjust our views to the evidence. 15/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/place-your-b…
Buying into conspiracy theories can be extremely bad for your health. 16/20 : sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/buying-into-…
If you have bought into conspiracy theories in the past, I have some advice about how to improve your social media feeds. 17/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/hack-your-so…
There is nothing wrong with contrarianism, as long as you don't start off with the assumption that the experts don't know what they are talking about. If you want to be a contrarian, take some risks for your opinions! 18/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/how-to-be-a-…
If you disagree with someone on the internet, be wary of triggering cognitive dissonance, talk about methodology instead of conclusions and accept small wins. 19/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/three-guidel…
Finally, check everything! If you have enjoyed this content, please subscribe to my Substack. Sharing it on social media would be greatly appreciated. Thanks in advance! 20/20 sharpenyouraxe.substack.com/p/check-everyt…
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