More encouraging news on Minnesota’s #COVID19 outbreak. Average positivity rate has now fallen for four straight days, and is about where this metric was two weeks ago.
Last Monday saw a week-over-week drop in the number of new #COVID19 cases found by that day’s tests for the first time in six weeks.
Even hospitalization metrics look like they might have peaked.
Now, none of this good news is a guarantee that cases and hospitalizations will continue to decline in future days. But every day of decline gives more weight to the hypothesis that MN has durably turned a corner on its #COVID19 wave.
The tentative good news on the #COVID19 front is matched by continued retreats on the vaccination front. The number of doses administered is falling, however you measure it — new first doses, newly completed vaccinations, total doses administered.
This drop in vaccination in Minnesota is driven ENTIRELY by Johnson & Johnson vaccines, which were paused last week due to rare possible side effects. Pfizer & Moderna are both up. (J&J hasn’t hit 0 yet because of reporting delays & the 7-day average.)
This fall in J&J vaccinations isn’t surprising. Even before the pause, Minnesota was on track to see its J&J allocation plummet. We can expect to see falling vaccination numbers continue for some time, based on this limited supply.
Some people have suggested that vaccination rate is falling because demand is falling, b/c most people who really want a shot already have one.
There may be some of that, & demand will eventually be the dominant factor, but I don’t see it yet. No fall in % of doses given.
Overall, more than half of MN adults, and around 40% of the MN population, have at least one dose. About 36% of adults/29% of Minnesota are fully vaccinated.
85% of MN seniors, 57% of adults 50-64, 40% of adults under 50, and 17% of 16- and 17-year-olds have at least one dose:
In fact, 16- and 17-year-olds have been the age group with the fastest vaccination growth over the past week. A lot of pent-up demand there!
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“No principles, any methods, but no flowery language — always Yes or No, though you could only count on him if it was No.” — Clement Attlee on Stalin
“Soviet biologists were instructed to adopt the theories of the charlatan Lysenko… to disastrous effect… It is significant that Stalin left his nuclear physicists alone & never presumed to second guess *their* calculations. Stalin may well have been mad, but he was not stupid.”
“Fortunately for the West, American popular culture had an appeal that American political ineptitude could do little to tarnish.”
I finally hit on why "Hazbin Hotel" is leaving me so cold. I love a stylized sitcom about depraved souls in the afterlife struggling toward redemption: It's called "The Good Place," & while it lacked raunch, songs & art deco animation, it had sophisticated multi-layered writing.
Partly this is a difference in execution — if you hired Michael Schur to script-doctor the dialogue on "Hazbin Hotel" you'd get a much better show — but in large part it's just intent. TGP was aiming at the border between middle- and high-brow; HH is aiming at middle-low.
I see everything "Hazbin Hotel" is trying to do, and can appreciate it in an abstract sense. It's not a terrible show, it's just, like, a C+. It's competently done and has a few interesting ideas, but (4-5 episodes in) doesn't display any real verve or finesse in its writing.
You BET we polled people about #Napoleon. On the eve of a new biopic, most Americans don't know very much about Bonaparte, and what they do know, they don't especially like.
The U.S. actually has the highest rates of considering Napoleon's legacy to be "negative" of any of 8 countries YouGov polled. That includes several other countries that Napoleon actually invaded, humiliated and occupied.
What DO Americans know — or think they know — about Napoleon? Well, I regret to inform you that one of the most popular descriptors was "short," with no real difference between people who said they knew a fair bit about Napoleon and those who didn't.
cc @WaltHickey @pbump @PatrickRuffini @goodreads @DanielBGreene @aedwardslevy @NateSilver538
How many books do people own, anyway? My @YouGovAmerica survey found most people own at least SOME physical books, but most of these collections are pretty small. 20% of Americans own between 1 & 10 books.
NEW: Full-time caregiving is the #1 reason prime-age Americans don't work. In my latest for the @MinneapolisFed, I break down the stats behind this key demographic group:
Among adults age 25-54, women are 90% of full-time caregivers. But that's down from 96% two decades ago, while the share of full-time caregivers who are men has doubled.
Social conventions, health and individual preferences all impact parents' choices when one of them is going to stay home. But sometimes finances drive the decision, and in opposite-sex prime-age couples, men are twice as likely to be the top earner:
When the @Suntimes ran an undercover bar to catch sleazy officials: "I think one of the things that amazed us is that these inspectors sold out public safety on the cheap. They were not taking huge amounts. We were told to leave $10 for one inspector & $25 for another inspector."
@Suntimes @kottke Also: "[Columnists] smiled & gave me a thumbs-up. And I thought, ‘Well, that’s nice! They liked it!’ And it made me feel good. I was later told they gave me a thumbs-up b/c I got the word ‘ass’ in the paper. They’d been trying to get the word ‘ass’ past the copy desk for years."