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Apr 19, 2021 23 tweets 10 min read Read on X
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

30 new cases were reported in the region today: 3 each in PEI and Newfoundland and Labrador, 9 in New Brunswick, and 15 in Nova Scotia.

25/30 were traced at the time of reporting.

There are now 259 known, active cases in Atlantic Canada.
PEI reported 3 new cases today, all related to travel.

Due to the large number or travel-related cases, PEI has announced that effective immediately it is closing borders to non-resident travelers from outside the Atlantic region

There are now 13 known, active cases in PEI.
NL reported 3 new cases as well: 1 travel-related case in the Eastern health region and 2 in the Western region (one travel-related and 1 close contact of an existing case).

There are now 25 known, active cases in NL.
NB reported 9 new cases today: 1 travel-related case each in Moncton, Fredericton, and Bathurst, and 6 in the Edmundston area (4 close contacts of existing cases and 2 still under investigation.

There are now 158 known, active cases in NB.
Updated restrictions/case levels map for NB and care timeline with the Edmundston region emphasized.

Not much of a change in status for NB today.
NS reported 15 new cases today: 1 travel-related case in the Western zone, 6 in the Eastern zone (1 close contact, 5 travel-related), and 8 in the Halifax area (1 travel, 4 close contacts and 3 still under investigation).

There are now 63 known, active cases in NS.
Two of today's cases are linked to schools. Both have been closed temporarily to allow for testing and contact tracing, but are scheduled to re-open later in the week.
This is the highest number of cases in a single day in NS since the November/December outbreak, although this is so far much less concentrated in Halifax and so far has a higher success rate of contact tracing.
Untraced cases are currently limited to the Halifax area.

Here's what you can do:

1) Go get tested. The pop-up rapid test sites are in Sackville (Sports Stadium) Tuesday/Wednesday, and a new site will be in place at the Convention Center downtown tomorrow until 7pm.
The rapid testing sites are for those with no known exposure and no symptoms. The idea is cas t a wide net and catch as many potential cases as possible and stop community transmission in its tracks.
So, if you've been out to bars/restaurants, hitting the gym or socializing with groups of friends (especially indoors), or even if you're just in the area, swing by and get tested.
We managed to beat the last group of untraced cases with testing and contact tracing, and we can do it this time, too.

The other thing you can do is pull back on your indoor, unmasked gatherings for the week, and/or pair it with regular testing.
If we do have an outbreak situation in Halifax, there's no need to add to it.

Change your behaviour to match your local risk levels and know your status by getting tested regularly.
I don't have the NS epi-origin graph up to date, but will try to have that ready for tomorrow.
Here is the current situation in the region.

Basically all of the shading outside of Edmundston is down to travel (Halifax would still be shaded without the untraced cases today).

PEI has formally closed it's borders. Not sure if other premiers are headed the same way.
You can see the entire pandemic timeline for the Atlantic region and surrounding area in the animation.

Each tick is a week since the start of the pandemic in March of last year.
Provincial and Territorial Vaccine Roll-Out

Top of the ribbon is doses distributed, bottom is doses administered.

The higher the ribbon goes, the more people are being vaccinated. The wider it gets, the more doses sit unused.

National ribbon outlined in black.
Vaccine Roll-Out Metrics

1st graph is percent of distributed doses that have been used.

2nd graph shows how many days since each province had enough doses to cover their current usage.

3rd graph shows percent of eligible population that is newly vaccinated each day
The two fastest vaccinating* provinces are currently NS and NB.

*It's a very tight field overall but I will take the W.
This animation shows each province's vaccination pace as a percent of the pace they need to each 80% first dose coverage by the end of June (based on how many they have already vaccinated and how much time is left).

Older data becomes less visible over time.
Here is the current percent of the eligible population of each province covered by at least one dose (2nd graph shows the Territories).

Most provinces will clear 30% single dose coverage this week.
% eligible with at least one dose / % eligible that can get a first dose with what's in storage right now:

BC: 27.2%/9.4%
AB: 25.7%/8.5%
SK: 32.0%/5.4%
MB: 23.9%/12.8%
ON: 27.9%/8.1%
QC: 32.5%/6.7%
NB: 26.6%/8.7%
NS: 19.3%/14.5%
NL: 25.5%/9.6%
PEI: 22.6%/10.5%
That's it for tonight's update.

If you're somewhere with an active or potential outbreak, pare down your indoor, unmasked interactions as much as you can. If you can, get tested regularly.

Take care of one another and have a great rest of the night.

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More from @WilsonKM2

Aug 15, 2021
The Great Big Canadian Pandemic Summary Thread (5th edition)

First a summary of the pandemic in Canada.

Bonus analysis on pandemic outcomes in Canadian health regions and US counties
For all the graphs, I have the national range in the background in grey: the bottom is the lowest per capita rate by any health region and the top is the highest per capita rate.

So everything will be visible on the same scale.

Examples:
Read 32 tweets
Aug 14, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

No one updated their numbers, so I'll just do the full weekend report on yesterday's numbers.

There are currently 126 known, active cases in the region.
The test positivity rate in the region was 0.3%
There are currently 9 known, active cases in PEI, but no known outbreaks/community transmission, and no one is in hospital.
Read 17 tweets
Aug 14, 2021
Quick thread on vaccines, outbreaks, and why *who* is vaccinated as much as how many (although both are very important)
There's a pre-print out that gives estimates (based on sero-prevalence) of the probability of needing to go to the hospital or dying if infected with SARS-CoV-2 for a series of age brackets: medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
If you know a population's age structure, you can somewhat estimate what an outbreak of a given number of infections will look like in terms of number of hospitalizations and deaths.

And if you know vaccine coverage, you can update those estimates for those effects, too.
Read 14 tweets
Aug 13, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

27 new cases were reported:

2 in PEI (travel-related)

4 in Newfoundland and Labrador: 1 in Labrador-Grenfell, 3 in the Eastern Health region (all travel)

2 in Nova Scotia: 1 each in the Northern (travel) and Eastern (under investigation) zones ImageImageImageImage
New Brunswick reported 19 new cases:

2 each in Fredericton (under investigation), Campbellton (under investigation), and Bathurst (close contacts).

3 in Saint John (2 travel-related, 1 under investigation)

10 in Moncton (5 contacts, 5 under investigation).
There are now 126 known, active cases in the Atlantic region, of which 84 are in NB (and62 are in the Moncton area).
Read 12 tweets
Aug 12, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

18* new cases were reported

11 in New Brunswick: 2 in Saint John (travel), 9 in Moncton (3 close contacts, 6 under investigation)

7* in Nova Scotia: 1 each in Western (travel) and Eastern (contact), and 5 in Halifax (all travel, 3 old/unreported) ImageImageImageImage
Regional Summary

Remains quiet save for the outbreak in the Moncton area.

Things still getting worse in Maine. Image
Zoom in on NB:

1st graph is case timeline for NB

2nd is cases per capita for all health regions with Moncton emphasized.

3rd is hospitalizations

4th is deaths ImageImageImageImage
Read 5 tweets
May 31, 2021
Today in the #AtlanticBubble

33 new cases were reported: 2 each in PEI, and Newfoundland and Labrador, 12 in New Brunswick, and 17 in Nova Scotia.

There are now 709 known, active cases in the region.
PEI reported 2 new cases today, both related to travel outside the region and both detected during routine testing in isolation.

There are now 14 known, active cases in PEI.
NL also reported 2 new cases today:

1 each in the Central (close contact) and Western (travel-related) health regions.

Neither new cases is connected to each region's respective clusters, both of which remain under investigation.

There are now 101 known, active cases in NL.
Read 23 tweets

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