Thread by @magmal11

POST DERBY ERA IMPLICATIONS FOR FRANCE, CHAD, NIGERIA AND WEST AFRICA:

Constitutionally the Speaker of Parliament is supposed to take over if the President is indisposed. Chad is an important ally of France and has been heralded in the West as an indisposable partner in

the fight against terror. Let's leave aside the succession battle for a while ...

The death of Derby can lead to two outcomes. If this was a Maskirovska (military masking or deception to confuse intelligence) then Nigeria is in for a tough time.
@GeoffreyOnyeama @NGRPresident

Desperate people sometimes take desperate actions. Chad and Niger are the staunchest ally of France in francophone West Africa.

The Nigeria backed Mohamed Bazoum defeated the France backed Mahamane Ousmane in what is the first democratic transition for the coup-prone Niger.

Remember folks this is the world's poorest nation according to the UN's development rankings for 189 countries.

Nigers new President had poverty alleviation of his people as his core policy. To quote Mohamad Bazoune verbatim a week before election:

"Why should we be the poorest nation in the world when the richest nation in Africa is right next door. We have our priority mixed up"

To Pres. Bazoun it's a privilege to live next door to d richest African nation that also happens to have the continents biggest consumer market.

Niger needs Nigeria for economic assistance..and very soon military assistance.

24 hours after winning the election President Bazoun questioned the relevance of the French military in his country. To quote him verbatim:

QUOTE
French troops have been in the region on and off

since the 19th century, seeking to secure French access to labour and resources.

They have remained, and returned, since independence. The French military has been in the region for years. Since then, instability has spread and many states in the region are now dealing with

repeated attacks and insurgencies from a range of groups.
END OF QUOTE

Twenty hours after this statement, there was an attempted Palace Coup against a Pres. that had barely settled into his job.

At this point Paris was faced with the realization that Niger was tilting towards

Nigeria's orbit. It will lose Niger to Nigeria...no question about that.

Just yesterday President Bazoun was in Nigeria as part of a two day visit. This meeting was held under closed doors. Present in the meeting was Nigeria's Chief of Defence Staff.

Which is indicative of the very sensitive nature of his visit.

The Pres. is probably scared. He knows he has been marked by Paris and needs Nigeria's help. Long the bastion for democracy in Anglophone West Africa Nigeria basically oversaw the first transition of power in Niger.

Another francophone state now democratic.

Before I continue lemme make lay out this fact. Nigeria is in a vicious struggle for political & ideological influence in West Africa. Nigeria has proven time and time again it is willing and capable of using military force to uphold the

principles of democracy in ECOWAS.

In making French military presence conditional on a public show of allegiance, Macron wants to be seen as committed to democratic process in Africa. However Macron’s autocratic attitude towards dissent in countries such as Niger

@DefenceInfoNG

and Mali is only stoking anti-french sentiments.

He humiliated the Pres. of Burkina Faso in the presence of his own pple on live TV.

Latest development in Chad gives room for 2 possibilities.
On the one hand it is an opportunity for Chad to join d league of democratic states.

On the other hand the French might press the nuclear button. Losing two of his closest ally in the space of one month might be too much for France to handle. Nigeria's game of strategic patience, which the French mistook for weakness is begining to pay off. With Niger and Chad.

French influence in West Africa is dead. France lost Niger to Nigeria. Lost the Central African Republic to Russia. Lost Libya to Turkey and Russia. It's reliable accomplice Idris Derby has been killed. This is traumatic for Paris. This is where the danger lies for Nigeria.

Already in France 24 they are already touting Derby as a critical ally in France's fight againt terrorist groups and..
To quote verbatim:
"wondering what will become of the region"

The French are talking about mobilizing for large scale war at a time their influence in Libya

and North Africa is fast becoming irrelevant. They can use Derby's death as a Maskirovska and pull off a terrorist D-Day style invasion of West Africa.

The man who kept terrorism at bay is dead. Hence the reason for the upsurge in violence. The region once again needs

@nialsorg

France to help countries struggling to contain the insurgency .

This is the card Paris is capable of playing. If you think its extreme & unlikely think again. Here is a man who, at a NATO Summit in London threatened W/African presidents to quell anti-French sentiments or else...

Threatening foreign presidents to quell public debate and dissent at home is an autocratic gesture & very characteristic of France. No other leader in the world...not Russian or Chinese, British...no other Pres. on earth threatens sovereign nations in a public forum or humiliates

the President of a country in the presence if his own people...telling the audience to "shut up".What they owe French soldiers is an applause, not criticisms. He will not get away with such disrespectful and aggresive gesture in Nigeria.

...Heck he tried it in Ghana and got schooled by Ghana's President.

In conclusion.

France still has significant commercial & political interests in the region. The state owned energy company, Orano, gets a large proportion of its uranium frm Niger.

@HQNigerianArmy @NigAirForce

Add Total oil fields in Mali to the mix. The French have a military base in Chad. when Macron visited his troops he brought enough champagne for 1,300 French troops. They had a blast partying all night. These are the poorest nations in earth where 80% live below poverty.

France receives $500 billion a year from 14 francophone states in colonial taxes. They dont build roads, rail infrastructure, schools, economic aid...

These countries are mere appendages of French imperial intentions in West Africa.

Niger has broken free.
The rest will follow.

Courtesy - Defense News Nigeria.

@MBuhari @ProfOsinbajo @FedMinOfJustice @nassnigeria @NGRSenate @SPNigeria @HouseNGR @SpeakerGbaja @DrAhmadLawan @femigbaja @HonAhmedWase @DejiAdesogan @GoziconC