As Credit Suisse is aware, Counterparty credit risk is so complicated, that almost all the formulas in the CRR had to be corrected two years later !
A thread!
Ooops we forgot a floor in the duration calculation (btw this formula is still horribly wrong)
Who’s the bloody intern who forgot the long-term bonds in the notional calculations!?
Seriously, no one told you that a number inside a square root has better be positive? (I mean CCR is complex, but not in *that* sense)
I can’t believe you made the same error TWICE!
When you say it out loud, SF sounds so much nicer than SK
You can’t sum on a null set, dude.
Rule number 1 of mathematical logic : if you open a parenthesis, you have to close it & vice versa. You might not seen it, but the computer will.
I can’t believe they took the wrong hedging set for non-electrical commodities. Rookie error.
Read it 23 times and see if you can find the error.
Yeah, I always make the same mistake when I price a bond. 1%, one Basis point, what’s the difference anyway. It’s only money.
Confusing notional and market value for a Jump to default… this will not end well.
Do you need an aspirin ?
Banking regulations are so complex that, after taking three years to draft a regulation, they have to publish a corrigendum two years after, because it was filled with errors.
I hope you feel reinsured.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
What's going to be the costs of the Crowdstrike outage for the insurance industry? Impossible to know precisely but Mediobanca has a nice breakdown explaining why it won't be massive.
There are 3 areas of losses:
- cancelled flights
- Business interruption
- Cyber policies
1/n
Cancelled flights: reports are approx 5000 flights cancelled per day, still ongoing (backlog). That's big but 2010 Icelandic volcano had 100k cancelations ut MunRe explained the insured losses were low munichre.com/en/company/med…
BI for a week is not big. For example Swiss Re paid 1.5bn for the entire Covid lockdown. This is not even remotely the same
Thoughts about what's next in France + some important budget geekery in the middle. A long thread.
There is obviously no party capable of governing, But the two most important figures for me are approx
- RN + LFI = 214, 256 if we add EELV and PCF
- LR + PS + ENS = 131+162=293
In practice, this means that there is no “immediate” majority for votes of no confidence LFI + RN and that it will take the vote of one bit of the three “moderates” to pass one. The governement will not be that unstable.
There are also important rules to keep in mind:
- The president chooses the PM but he cannot decide policy for him
- The assembly does not vote on the choice of the PM – it can just dismiss him by vote of no confidence. Even if this vote succeeds, nothing prevents the president from choosing the same PM!
Allegedly one of those hedge funds was called Segantii.
Maybe you’ve heard of them: they’re shutting down and returning all investor money after Hong Kong authorities announced a criminal insider trading probe against them for trading ahead of a …. block trade! Surprise!
If you're following French politics, you'll probably hear about a weird theory soon, as it's likely to go mainstream: Macron could resign, call for new presidential elections and run again, effectively bypassing the 2-term limit.
Is it credible? I don't think so and here's why.
The Constitution bans more than two consecutive terms.
Everyone pretty straightforwardly understands this as "Macron can't run again in 2027" (but could pull a Putin & come back in 2032.)
However the exact wording mentions "mandats consécutifs" which, some suggest, implies that if someone is a temporary president after Macron resigns (even for a few weeks) then a 3rd Macron term wouldn't be "consecutive."
By now you've probably read 10 times that Macron called parliamentary elections to put RN/Le Pen in power & wait for them to mess up so much that Macron's heir will win in 2027.
I think that's a possible scenario but not his goal at all. It misses Macron's real target.
1.- The main negative for Le Pen is that she (&her father) have always been seen as incapable of governing. They’re a protest party, nothing more. Break that taboo and you could actually help them.
2. A majority for Le Pen not certain. They've got 88 MPs, majority is 289. They scored 19% at last parliamentary elections vs 33% yesterday but were at 23% previous European elections. The two-round system makes the votes/ seats relationship highly non linear. Forecast is v hard.
An “ECB” working paper (so in theory just academic work, but, errr.) published 2 days ago discussed capital buffers for climate risks. T
he basic idea makes sense: an increased pace in energy transition is good for the climate but could hurt the credit profile of some companies.
How is this assessed?
The ECB has built a macro model that’s mostly based on energy prices, spillovers & leverage / profitability that ultimately leads to probabilities of default. A neat model but tbh I’m always dubious – unfortunately macro models can’t even forecast 6mo infla