JohannesBorgen Profile picture
Apr 21, 2021 14 tweets 4 min read Read on X
As Credit Suisse is aware, Counterparty credit risk is so complicated, that almost all the formulas in the CRR had to be corrected two years later !

A thread!
Ooops we forgot a floor in the duration calculation (btw this formula is still horribly wrong)
Who’s the bloody intern who forgot the long-term bonds in the notional calculations!?
Seriously, no one told you that a number inside a square root has better be positive? (I mean CCR is complex, but not in *that* sense)
I can’t believe you made the same error TWICE!
When you say it out loud, SF sounds so much nicer than SK
You can’t sum on a null set, dude.
Rule number 1 of mathematical logic : if you open a parenthesis, you have to close it & vice versa. You might not seen it, but the computer will.
I can’t believe they took the wrong hedging set for non-electrical commodities. Rookie error.
Read it 23 times and see if you can find the error.
Yeah, I always make the same mistake when I price a bond. 1%, one Basis point, what’s the difference anyway. It’s only money.
Confusing notional and market value for a Jump to default… this will not end well.
Do you need an aspirin ?
Banking regulations are so complex that, after taking three years to draft a regulation, they have to publish a corrigendum two years after, because it was filled with errors.

I hope you feel reinsured.

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More from @jeuasommenulle

Mar 3
Tomorrow is the end of the grace period for fentanyl-related tariffs (Canada Mexico), China ones r supposed to start on March 12. Time to look at some numbers. So far Trump has enacted 10% “fentanyl” tariffs on Chinese goods, enacted and cancelled 25% on Columbia and threatened :
Canada, Mexico (25% goods + 10% Canadian energy), China (+10% addtl), 25% steel & aluminium worldwide, “fees” for Chinese ships/freight operators, “reciprocal tariffs” (whatever that means) for all nations + 25% autos pharma & lumber, + unknown % on copper.
We’ll know more after the report on ‘America First Trade Policy’ on April 1st, especially on "reciprocal ones", but here are few thoughts from a great Autonomous report on this.

Some historical perspective: maybe raising tariffs in the early 1920 wasn’t a great idea? Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 28
You should watch the full unedited version of this unreal press conference All going as expected (Trump w/ his weird obsessions, Z trying to stay cool, Rubio wishing he was in bed) until it totally blows up bc Z can't help correcting Vance about diplomacy

The best summary of the twisted world we live in is how Trump ends the press conference:

"This is going to be great television"

You can't make it up
Also : the journalist who asked the suit question should really look at himself in the mirror tonight bc it clearly contributed to the unravelling of the meeting
Read 4 tweets
Jan 10
This is pure gold, Greek edition.
How did Eurobank achieve such an increase in capital ratios, in Q3 24? The trick is in the +99bps.
Which comes from a mysterious decrease of 2.4bn€ in RWA. But how? Deleveraging?
Oh no, that would be hard work. I’ve got a better idea.
Thread. Image
It’s obviously the ICAP CRIF CQS, you idiot. Err, what?
Here’s the explanation, & it’s beautiful.
Under Basel/EU rules, banks using the standard approach (no internal ratings) have capital charges (RWA) based on external ratings which are then mapped on so-called “Credit Quality Steps” that give RWA using this table. Image
Read 10 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
BNP has very good notes on the US elections and how to trade them. They are mostly focused on timing and the info you should focus on. Here's my summary
Before the elections

Apart from betting markets / polls, a source of info is mail-in ballot statistics.

Early voting doesn’t favor the Dems as much as 2020 (but Covid). Image
Before the elections

Some states - notably Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan North Carolina - start counting on Nov 5th. They are important states so could provide info.
Read 14 tweets
Oct 29, 2024
Maybe you’ve seen the crazy price action on Close Brothers last Friday or heard about the Hopcraft appeal court ruling and its impact for UK banks.

What is it about?

I’ll try to explain why it’s important but not Armageddon. Image
This is all about getting financing when you buy a car, more precisely getting so-called “Point of sale” financing, i.e. the car dealer acts as broker for the actual bank or finance company providing the loan.
Back in 2021 the FCA banned a dubious practice: the broker’s fee was higher if the loan rate was higher, i.e. there was an incentive to propose a bad client deal. The Financial Ombudsman Service ruled (on pre-ban sales) with an indication of how redress should be calculated.
Read 12 tweets
Oct 15, 2024
Italian press reports that Italian banks will contribute to 3-4bn€ to Italy’s budget… but this will cost nothing to banks.

How is this possible?

Who’s ready for some Italian black magic and a thread on the beautiful world of DTA?
First some jargon busting: DTA means deferred tax asset, which is an accounting way to represent future lower payments on taxes.

If you think they’re just a technical detail, for some banks DTA represent more than 10% of their RWA – while their equity is 15-ish% of RWA!
How does this work? When you make money, you are taxed. Simple. When you are losing money two things can happen:

A. The loss is not tax deductible for some reason, but will be in the future (for example a loan loss provision)
Read 15 tweets

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