Thread by @jfkirkegaard

Time to update the EU Covid vaccine charts. Situation is one of remarkable similarity across EU+NO+IS - with only HU (RU/CH vaccs) and MT (small size) well ahead of rest and BG, LV and CR materially lagging behind EU average. US (now ahead of UK) is well ahead of EU average. 1/n

The relative similarity of majority of EU MS' vacc levels is good news and indicates most MS are using essentially all the vaccines they receive now. Bodes well for ability to scale up as supplies increase. EU contrast to diff. vacc rates among US states is remarkable. 2/n

Focus on "elderly priority groups" highlights that UK program really, really well executed across old ages groups now for 1. jabs, but also that recent US "vacc surge" still leaves many elderly Americans behind, as some EU members have jabbed more elderly than the US 3/n

The ability of UK/EU MS to vacc virtually all priority groups early on suggests that they might well finish vacc'ing everyone as supplies become available ahead of the US, despite vaccines being more plentiful in US. Big challenge for US to reach >90% of any age group. 4/n

EU continues to expand vacc exports - even more important as India stopped exports and China looks set to also begin to import them. JP, UK and NAFTA main recipients. Contrast to US having 62mn vaccs (not incl. AZ BTW) "lying around" and UK a major vacc importer is striking. 5/n

Crucially the EUs supply surge looks set to continue in Q2 with total >400mn, or ~4x Q1 doses delivered. EU clearly benefitting now from surge scale-ability from maintaining virtually free trade in vaccs/ingredients (note US is a MAJOR vacc ingredient exporter to EU). 6/n

Adding Q1 and Q2 together, it is clear that EU on average remains on track to receive enough vaccs to fully jab 70% of its adult population by end-Q2 - provided MS utilize approved vaccs. It should in other words still be the base case that the EU economy can be generally 7/n

by end-Q2. EUs willingness to maintain virtually open vacc trade has enabled this (nix'ing exports = no surge capacity now), even as AZ problems and side effects has seen the EU (like the US) rely overwhelmingly on mRNA vaccines only. EU on track for a "more normal summer". END

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