Rukmini S Profile picture
23 Apr, 7 tweets, 2 min read
Thread: I am supposed to be taking a break from regular reporting to finish up my book. But I cannot let it go when the government puts out false or misleading data. When I saw this in the April 21 press conference, I knew there was a problem
It seemed highly unlikely to me that the government was either able to track every person who had received even one dose of a vaccine, or that every person being tested was being asked their vaccination status. So I asked people, labs, and officials. And that data's faulty.
The ICMR only added a section on vaccination status to its testing form on April 7, so for three months before, potentially vaccinated people testing positive were not captured. Even now, the new form has not made it to most on the ground.
Additionally, even now people who were vaccinated and then tested positive, but were not asked vaccination status at the time of testing, are being counted as "tested positive, not vaccinated" in the data. There's documents to prove that.
At best, the ICMR can say - this is the number of people that we know were vaccinated and tested positive, but we don't know how many more are out there. The denominator CANNOT be all people vaccinated - that's just plain wrong.
Vaccines work- there is published efficacy data for Covishield and a press release for Covaxin showing efficacy against infection, severe disease and death. Real-world effectiveness will always be lower. Presenting faulty data to claim implausibly high effectiveness is a BAD idea
Please read the full piece for the documents, real testimonies and expert views - indiaspend.com/covid-19/india…

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More from @Rukmini

31 Aug 20
There should never have been a contempt of court case against Prashant Bhushan, a great defender of our democracy, and his conviction is a travesty. But this Re 1 fine and the joking around it rankles. In 2011 I stood in a Saket court to watch a 19-year old boy's trial. (thread)
He had been picked on charges of stealing a wallet containing Rs 200. For one entire year he remained in Tihar after being granted bail because he did not have the money for a bail bond. His final escape? Conviction. Because the jail term was 3 months.
Accused of stealing a wallet containing Rs 200 (he strenuously denied having done it to me), bail bond set at Rs 10,000. He had nothing. Offence - 3 months, time taken for conviction 1+ year. That one year broke him (and introduced him to drugs).
Read 5 tweets
22 Aug 20
For @livemint, I looked at recent population projections for Indian states for the next 15 years, and I was struck by the generational divide that is coming up between India's north and south. Short thread follows:
Fifteen years from now, the median Tamil person will be over 40 while the median Bihari will be not yet 30. That's a considerable age gap, and it has widened further.
I've written earlier about how fertility is declining all over the country, but Bihar isn't doing very well in pushing this decline, that is a product of rising incomes, and better access to health and education for women, forward livemint.com/news/india/as-…
Read 5 tweets
12 Aug 20
Bhutan went into national lockdown yesterday following one young woman testing positive. Short thread on how a woman who followed all the rules still triggered a national crisis, and how the country is containing it.
The 27-year-old woman returned from Kuwait on June 26 and was placed in mandatory institutional quarantine. She was in quarantine for one month (!) over which time she repeatedly tested negative on RT-PCR tests but positive on antibody tests. On July 26 she was released.
In all, she tested negative five times on RT-PCR tests (!) but repeatedly showed presence of antibodies.
Read 5 tweets
9 Jul 20
Here's a new problem for India's testing data: states like Delhi are conducting both RT-PCR tests and antigen tests, but reporting positive test numbers combined. Antigen tests have much more false negatives, so start taking falling test positivity rates with a big lump of salt.
I wrote about it here for @IndiaToday: indiatoday.in/diu/story/why-…
From July 3-6, Delhi conducted more antigen tests than RT-PCR tests, so that immediately makes its falling test positivity rate very difficult to celebrate.
Read 8 tweets
21 May 20
Little thread: For work, I've been looking up other countries' coronavirus dashboards, and one thing struck me about Brazil's (aside from the fact rhta it's very good).
Look at that second tab. SRAG is "síndrome respiratória aguda grave" - or as we know it in India, SARI or Severe Acute Respiratory Illness Image
Brazil maintains updated and detailed SARI data that it puts out alongside COVID data ImageImage
Read 5 tweets
24 Apr 20
(Thread) I looked at data from 627 districts and over 1.5 lakh health facilities for the last few months and years, and what I found was very worrying. Medical services declined across the board in March 2020.
This includes immunisations - 2 lakh children fewer got the pentavalent vaccine, over 1 lakh fewer kids got their BCG vaccine. It also includes a host of maternal services.
There was a huge fall in inpatient services for infectious diseases, but interpreting this as a fall in illness alone would be inaccurate. This is because there was a huge fall in outpatient treatment of all NCDs, including cancer.
Read 8 tweets

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