Thread by @WheatNOil

Your chance of getting a treatable blood clot from AstraZeneca in Canada is at 1 in 275,000

1 in 20,740 Saskatchewan adults under age 40 have died of COVID.

Adults under 40 in SK have a 13 TIMES higher chance of dying of COVID than getting a treatable blood clot from AZ.

https://twitter.com/richard680news/status/1385596624169275392

Your chance of getting a treatable blood clot from AstraZeneca in Canada is at 1 in 275,000

1 in 5,757 Saskatchewan adults between 40-59 have died of COVID.

Adults between 40-59 in SK have a 48 TIMES higher chance of dying of COVID than getting a treatable blood clot from AZ.

Your chance of getting a treatable blood clot from AstraZeneca in Canada is at 1 in 275,000

1 in 1,331 Saskatchewan adults between 60-79 have died of COVID.

Adults between 60-79 in SK have a 207 TIMES higher chance of dying of COVID than getting a treatable blood clot from AZ.

Your chance of getting a treatable blood clot from AstraZeneca in Canada is at 1 in 275,000

1 in 219 Saskatchewan adults over age 80 have died of COVID.

Adults over 80 in SK have a 1,256 TIMES higher chance of dying of COVID than getting a treatable blood clot from AZ.

The point is that even at the youngest age group (under 40), the risk of DYING of COVID (let alone hospitalization / ICU stay) is way higher than any vaccine risk with COVID rates the way they are.

And if you’re over 40? This is a slam-dunk decision. Stay safe. Get vaccinated.

Update from NACI:

NACI has recommended the AstraZeneca vaccine for people aged 30+ where they have elevated risk and where they’d have to wait for an mRNA vaccine.

I think I can explain the elevated risk part of it...

This graphic is from the UK. This is for people with ‘low’ exposure risk. Meaning little COVID floating around, for example.

You can see here that if there’s not much COVID, the benefit of AZ really shows itself in 30+.

Now what if you’re at high risk of exposure? The math changes quite a bit. Now you’re more likely to get in the ICU. Consider Ontario, Alberta, BC, SK... places high rates of COVID and lots of variants.

This reflects the thread I have above. The risk from COVID is very high.

Ok, so what if you have to wait awhile to get an mRNA vaccine? (The mRNA vaccines haven’t shown a signal of these rare clots.)

Sitting around unvaccinated in a place with a lot of COVID is very risky. You gain by getting vaccinated quickly! It’ll keep you from getting very sick.

For example, what if you’re in Saskatchewan and this is going on?

Seems like AstraZeneca may be helpful here. Seems like there’s a significant risk to ‘waiting’ for an mRNA vaccine.

https://twitter.com/zakvescera/status/1385726222747914240

Also, it’s younger people who are getting sick now.

Which is why I’m a little concerned about NACI being a little wishy-washy in their recommendation on “if people don’t want to wait”. Like, my dudes, people are dying here.

https://twitter.com/zakvescera/status/1385726761183285250

To NACI’s credit, they’re right that we’ll have enough mRNA vaccine for everyone to get 2 doses by the Fall.

And we had controlled the virus and had low COVID rates, maybe we’d be able to ride it out until then.

But we didn’t.

So here we are.

It’ll be interesting to see what NACI does with the J&J vaccine.

The US just gave it the green light for 18+, with a warning of rare clotting risk for women under 50. This was their risk analysis.

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1385668286977875971