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Quantіan Profile picture
@quantian1
Apr 24, 2021 • 5 tweets • 4 min read • Read on X
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Alright, T+15 days since shot 2 and we’re doing indoor dining again. To start: a 2014 Egon Müller Scharzhofberger Spätlese
Clockwise from top: blistered shishito peppers, tuna inari pockets, grilled @macrocephalopod, hijiki seaweed salad, and sea trout crudo.
Next: Tempura accoutrements, accompanied by tempura.
My insatiable greed and list for tempura knows no bounds
Finishing up: trout roe nori cracker, spicy black cod and miso soup, and a shiso leaf sherbet. God I have missed this so badly.

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More from @quantian1

Quantіan Profile picture
Dec 31, 2024
This is your periodic reminder that Medallion has underperformed the S&P since inception, on account of it paying out profits as dividends rather than allowing reinvestment. Don't cry for its investors- they've realized 3x the Sharpe with no drawdowns- but it isn't magic. Image
if you divided VIRT's trading revenue by the securities HFS on their balance sheet you'd get a very similar chart to the Medallion one above, but a quick look at the stock suggests investors aren't compounding at that rate!
Corporate needs you to find the difference between these two charts (correlation = 0.9 lol): Image
Read 4 tweets
Quantіan Profile picture
Dec 12, 2024
A zero employee single manager fund runs somewhere between $500k and $1mm per year in expenses like audit, admin, legal/formation costs nowadays, so $50mm is the minimum for *you* to draw a paycheck, let alone employ a team, without eating performance fees for ~all of comp.
Once you have launched, institution interest evaporates because giving money to a nonexistent fund is way easier than a fund w/ a 4 month track, so you need to tough out 3 years minimum to get calls, and then they’ll bitch about scalability because you were managing HNWI money
In practice, if you want to acquire the accoutrements of institutional hedge fund life- an office, a team, a good PB, ISDA, etc., you need at least $100mm of fee paying AUM, which translates to more like $150 or $200 because various people will want deals and discounts to invest
Read 5 tweets
Quantіan Profile picture
Mar 23, 2024
Not to pick on this guy in particular, but there is a great deal of misinformation floating around re: DWAC. Fortunately for you all, I spent today reading the S-1, and as a SPAC expert I can confidently answer the question of “can Trump sell Monday” with a firm “idk, maybe?”
Here is their lock-up agreement, I’ve attached a screenshot of the relevant sections. Formal disclaimer that everything that follows is neither legal nor financial advice, I may have positions in securities mentioned, do your own research, etc. sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
Image
This is pretty boilerplate, as far as these things go, which it of course is because SPACs mostly just use a standardized template. The three major conditions are as follows: can’t sell until the EARLIEST of: six months, five months of the price is above $12, or they get bought Image
Read 8 tweets
Quantіan Profile picture
Nov 11, 2023
I just attended a talk on the mathematics of diffusion image generation models and it blew me away. Takeaways:
1. The math is very “simple”
2. In fact, it’s so simple that this method *shouldn’t really work*
3. The fact it does says something very fundamental about the universe
The basic idea is you define a stochastic process X_t, where dX_t = a(t,X)dt + b(t,X)dW_t. Let X_0 be random noise and X_1 be, eg, vector of RGB values for an image. Interpolate and add noise to generate a sample X_t, do this for many images, and then you can “learn” a() and b()
To generate a new image, you simply pick a new vector of random noise and evolve forward your newly discovered SDE until you reach t=1, at which point you have a perfectly sensible image if you’ve done your job right, modulo various finicky fine-tuning bits.
Read 9 tweets
Quantіan Profile picture
Aug 7, 2023
Since it's Sunday and I'm bored, I figured I would finally, definitively answer the question of "why do people think the economic is bad (and is that the case?)". This is because it is easy to answer, and the answer is funny and will make many people mad.
First of all, we will ignore everyone on Twitter and look at objective data, in this case the University of Michigan's consumer survey asking what people think economic conditions are. Spoiler: People think the economy is very bad, worse than any time other than 1980 and 2008! Image
Ok, now let's think of all the variables that might cause them to think that and build a model. I picked the following:
Inflation rate
Inflation rate change
Unemployment
Unemployment change
Housing prices
Real wages
Dollar strength
Interest rates
Stock prices
and went from there
Read 14 tweets
Quantіan Profile picture
Jun 26, 2023
Junior data scientist interview question: Assume you generate points X = N(0,1); Y = N(0,0.1). Rotate the (x,y) dataset 45 degrees, so they look something like pic below (line is y = x). If you were to calculate the OLS regression y = b1*x + b0, what is E[b1] as n->infinity? Image
(this question and the answer were previously buried in my replies, don't cheat or i will bully you for it)
The responses to this were bifurcated between “this is a hard question no one would get” and “this is a trivial question everyone should get ”. Surely if “data scientist” means anything, it means you should be able to answer basic linear algebra and mathematical stats questions!
Read 4 tweets

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