- Hope-Simpson N. Temperate pattern
- April 2020 pattern
Instead of assuming US states dropped in unison at the same time last Spring due to NPIs, we consider natural forces to be predominant.
/3
Leading Indicators:
1) CLI 2) Pos% 3) Illness Onset (Actual Date of Case) 4) Reported Cases
We learned long ago that CLI - COVID-Like Illness % of ER Visits - was the best leading indicator.
On 4/12, we saw peak signals on all 4.
/4
If we did not look for Multi-Factor Consilience, we'd be much more susceptible to single-factor anomalies like the 220% Test dump on 4/14, which gave an artificial rise in Reported Cases trend.
This did not affect us, because we saw Pos% and CLI fall.
/5
Hello, @m_scribe and @guardian , this article has false claims about Flu, CoV2, and RAV, which should be corrected.
None of the 3 are rising, and the CoV2 weekly changes are out of date. You gave the weekly changes for week-ending 12/30, but CDC updates through week-ending 1/6.
All 3 can be seen declining no later than 12/30.
Will you fix the article based on the above, or is there a better method for requesting a formal correction?
Sure, I will respond genuinely on the basis you are asking earnestly.
First, I think EVERYTHING in the screenshot is bad:
1) “Ritual and solidarity” are brainwashing techniques. Fooling/coercing people into accepting and then propagating a measure is dastardly to begin with
2) Doing that with a measure that is ineffective is downright evil, because it brainwashes people unknowingly into a self-harming act both directly (unsanitary, dehumanizing, social detriment, etc) and indirectly (increased exposure due to false sense of security)
/2
3) Nothing wrong with people protecting themselves, but community masking with any material was not protective for the individual and especially not the community. It was always a lie even if Zeynep truly believed in masks personally
/3