Ben See Profile picture
Apr 24, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Remember:

1. Global crop failures by 2°C.
2. Most humans dead by 4°C.
3. Earth uninhabitable by 6°C.
4. We risk 2°C by 2035.
5. We risk 4°C by 2065.
6. We risk 6°C by 2095.

One tweet is worth a million newspaper front pages.
1. It will never be too late to try to limit the damage/suffering of the expanding ecological-climate catastrophe by challenging media silence, destructlive growth & short-term profit maximization.

We need economic system change action now to avoid 3-4C by 2050-2100.

Sources:👇
2. 'Risks of simultaneous crop failure.. increase disproportionately between 1.5 and 2°C'

Over 1.5°C represents 'a threat to global food security'
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

'Agriculture is already at moderate risk, which becomes high risk around 2 degrees' vox.com/platform/amp/s… Image
3. Meta-analysis: 70% of studies show declines in crop yields by the 2030s (half indicate 10–50% declines):
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…

We are in the danger zone.

2°C will hit as early as 2034-2038 without stunning emissions cuts towards zero in the 2020s.
carbonbrief.org/analysis-when-…
4. Scientists still hope to stay below 2.5C but it would take a 'herculean effort' to avoid 4C, at which point 'mass death' would be likely:

From 2011
:smh.com.au/business/on-co…

And from 2009: 4C by the 2060s if emissions don't peak & plummet by the 2030s:
dumptheguardian.com/environment/20…
5. This recent study confirms 3-4°C looks increasingly likely by 2050-2100 as emissions continue to rise, and that >5C by the end of the century is beyond catastrophic for humanity, and entirely possible.

We must change everything to protect everybody.
6. This is tough information to take in. I feel better when I try to take action to support the Climate Justice Movement which has known for decades that capitalism must be transformed and replaced for decent survival. Individual-collective action is possible. Keep going.
7. Just to add, here's a thread full of key info on parts per million of CO2 (ppm) in the atmosphere and 'CO2-e' which includes all greenhouse gases and forcings. The thread has two more sources on 5-6°C being enough to make the planet uninhabitable.
8. Because the statements in the tweet are so extraordinary, I have to concentrate on extensive explanatory details which back them up as convincingly as possible in the thread.

It's also important to suggest actions, so here is a thread of ideas:

10. Some interesting quotations from high-profile scientists here, and see conversations under the tweet for further debate/discussion.

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More from @ClimateBen

Sep 24
BREAKING: extreme record high sea surface temperatures intensify terrified scientists' suspicions cataclysmic rapid warming of 2°C will likely hit for the first time in 7-14 years making economic system change essential for a chance of protecting vulnerable species like humans🧵 North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly
1.

'Targeting a sustainable world involves fundamental changes to political and economic systems'.

(IPCC)

If even official scientific consensus documents are going this far, we should be clear that economic system change must be achieved to protect all.
ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2…
2. We must anticipate catastrophic dislocations to human systems at 2°C (as a trend) by the 2030s or 2040s.





This is not gradual warming. This is fatal abrupt change.
climatechangenews.com/2013/12/03/jam…
carbonbrief.org/analysis-what-…
Read 5 tweets
Sep 20
BREAKING:  fury and disgust as mass media remain silent despite scientists confirming cataclysmic global warming of 1.7-2°C by 2030-2050 is now unavoidable even in best-case emissions scenarios 🧵
1. "We inevitably face..overshoot" (beyond 1.5°C)


'by.. probably multiple tenths of a degree even under the highest possible ambition'


So in theory with wildly optimistic assumptions best-case 1.7-1.8°C by 2050 (1.9-2.6°C likely).ted.com/talks/johan_ro…
nature.com/articles/s4155…
2. The planet you think you're living on no longer exists:

There's no good reason to think we won't hit 1.9-3°C by 2048-2060.

This is collapse.

Change this Extinction Economy now to protect species and everyone while it's still too late.

See thread:

Read 8 tweets
Sep 17
BREAKING: scientists warn humanity has 66 months to organise and implement a massive unprecedented transformative shift away from today's short term profits and economic growth to halt biodiversity destruction and curb extinction rates which are now the fastest in Earth history🧵
1. Corporations block change

Achieving the Biodiversity Plan will require massive, unprecedented transformation and shifting from short term profits to long term sustainability..high ambition must prevail..halt and reverse biodiversity destruction by 2030.iucn.org/cbdcop16
2. 'moving away from the conception of economic progress based solely on GDP growth'

See joint IPCC-IPBES 2020-2021 report totally ignored by mass media.

Thread:

Read 4 tweets
Sep 16
BREAKING: the majority of climate scientists now expect conditions extreme enough to wipe out 35-70% of Earth's species within decades 🧵
1. An extraordinary 77% of IPCC scientists questioned expect 2.6-5°C of global warming (or more) in the coming 5 to 9 decades.



Conservation biologists say at least half of Earth's species will be wiped out at 3°C.

Thread:
dumptheguardian.com/environment/ar…
2. Abrupt climate change is just one (major) compounding factor in extinction catastrophe. Scientists dreaming of 1.4-1.5°C by 2100 face a new reality. The recently updated best-case scenario 1.6-1.8°C by ~2050 is very unlikely. Expect 1.9-2°C by 2030-2050.nature.com/articles/s4155…
Read 6 tweets
Sep 16
BREAKING: new terrifying best-case global warming scenario of 1.6-1.8°C and falling is based on profoundly speculative assumptions with 95% of scientists actually fully expecting 1.9-2.1°C and rising fast towards 21st century extinction for the majority of Earth's species 🧵
1. Few IPCC experts expect the extraordinary emergency action in the coming years of capitalism required (in theory) to avoid 2.7-3.3°C. They expect 1.9-5°C.

Change this Extinction Economy now while it's still too late to protect species and everyone.

dumptheguardian.com/environment/ar…
2. At least half of all species extinct at around 2.75/3.25°C.

Thread
Read 8 tweets
Sep 14
BREAKING:  horror as scientists confirm cataclysmic global warming of 1.75-2°C by 2030-2050 is unavoidable even in best-case emissions scenarios 🧵
1. "We inevitably face..overshoot" (beyond 1.5°C)


'by.. probably multiple tenths of a degree even under the highest possible ambition'


So in theory with wildly optimistic assumptions best-case 1.7-1.8°C by 2050 (1.9-2.6°C likely).ted.com/talks/johan_ro…
nature.com/articles/s4155…
2. With the consensus best case scenario now realistically ~1.75°C, time to recall the IPCC second best scenario has been shown to have a 66-68% chance of >2°C by 2044-2065 in a major study recognised by mainstream scientists.

So.. 1.75-2.25°C by 2050.

news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/0…
Read 7 tweets

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