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26 Apr, 4 tweets, 2 min read
I don't really know why Russia mobilized near Ukraine and then demobilized. I doubt anyone outside of Putin's inner circle knows.
But it wasn't because Russia was "testing" Biden and he passed. As @DanielLarison notes, he didn't follow hawks' suggestions.
daniellarison.substack.com/p/the-russians…
Two of the biggest, most common mistakes in US foreign policy: (1) overrating reputation and resolve; (2) thinking other countries' actions are all about America.
If you don't show "strength" everywhere they'll think you "weak" and "test" you elsewhere? Not how the world works.
Obama didn't invade Syria, so Putin thought him weak and attacked Ukraine, right?
Doubt it. Influence over Ukraine is a core Russian foreign policy interest.
And Putin attacked Georgia when Bush was POTUS. Bush, you may recall, ordered invasions. Didn't matter re: Russia-Georgia.
It's likely that Obama declining to invade Syria led Putin to calculate that the US wouldn't match Russian intervention in Syria, affecting his cost-benefit analysis.
That's different from thinking that backing down anywhere causes aggression elsewhere.

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More from @NGrossman81

Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
22 Apr
In general, I think old, youthful stuff shouldn’t matter. (For example, I didn’t care that Kavanaugh drank hard, I cared that he lied about it).
But celebrating a man who murdered two people, including a gay icon, seems like an insight into character given where Tucker ended up.
Tucker shouldn't be "canceled" for what he wrote in college. What he's doing today matters much more.
But celebrating the murder of Harvey Milk then does make it less likely that his current support for white nationalist conspiracy theories that motivate terrorism is inadvertent.
Celebrating the murder of Harvey Milk isn't white nationalism. The murder was homophobic, not racist.
But celebrating it does, however, indicate that he doesn't think political violence is bad when directed at people he doesn't like.
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
16 Apr
That viral thread claiming bias by comparing Trump & Biden Afghanistan stories juxtaposes cherry-picked headlines, ignoring many that don’t fit the preconceived narrative it’s pushing, which means it’s exactly the sort of biased analysis you supposedly savvy media critics oppose.
It’s easy to find straight news about Trump’s Afghanistan policy, including uncritically repeating his positive spin on it.
Does this mean all was positive? Of course not. It means that claims that it was overwhelmingly negative aren’t proven by finding some negative headlines.
That’s CNN. There was a lot of straight news reporting about Trump and Afghanistan in the New York Times too.
Read 8 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
10 Apr
Yes, Georgia’s new law does some good things. And yes, some criticism of it is hyperbolic and inaccurate. But if asked to judge it by only those things, setting aside the bad parts and the Big Lie context, those who value American democracy should say no.
arcdigital.media/p/set-up-the-s…
Some good pieces I cite:
@walterolson makes the important point that emergency voting rules for COVID need to be made permanent, and notes that some criticisms of GA's law are misguided.
He's right, but gives insufficient attention to the law's bad parts.
thedispatch.com/p/why-state-el…
Georgia's law isn't Jim Crow, but as @jbouie explains, Jim Crow didn't happen all at once. When you put it in the context of the state's history of voting restrictions, and see new burdens falling disproportionately on Black people, it's kinda Jim Crowish.
nytimes.com/2021/04/06/opi…
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
2 Apr
Conspiracy charges against Oath Keepers for Jan. 6 allege "frequent and consistent communication" leading up to the attack including nearly 20 calls involving founder Stewart Rhodes.
He's not charged, but it looks like FBI is building to it, establishing the conspiracy in court.
Some of the Capitol insurrectionists were cosplaying internet conspiracy theorists who got in over their heads.
Rhodes, in particular, is not that. He was dishonorably discharged from the military, got a law degree from Yale, and founded a militia.
He knew what he was doing.
Prosecutors say Rhodes sent messages to an encrypted Signal group called "DC Ops 1" that included now-indicted people, saying "We need to regroup any members who are not on mission" as the Capitol was breached.
I suspected he was commanding the attack, and this looks like proof.
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
1 Apr
Why is anyone surprised Trump didn't get infrastructure done?
He was an incompetent president, he's lazy—watched a lot of TV, got energized for little besides showy fights—often thinks very short-term (eg COVID), and corrupt. So he managed to cut his own taxes and that's about it
An infrastructure bill is hard. You need to balance various interests. You need to get it through Congress, leaning on spending-skeptical Republicans. Competent White House staff helps.
"But he's good at building things!"
No he's not. That's just more image creation you fell for.
If you honestly assess Donald Trump, you recognize that he was way more motivated by making money for himself than by helping the American people (including his voters).
Once it was clear an infrastructure corruption-fest wouldn't happen, he dropped it.
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
1 Apr
Good piece on internet-driven harassment by ⁦@lyzl⁩ (with ⁦@chick_in_kiev⁩).
I have three thoughts.
1) Harassment is a very different experience for harassers, especially online. Toss some death threats in an email, click send, you’re done. lyz.substack.com/p/when-the-mob…
1 cont) But for the harassed, it’s an unyielding flood. Social media becomes hard to use, as normal notifications get drowned out. Email too. They go after family and coworkers, so even if you can take it, others in your life—who didn’t do anything—often have trouble with it.
2) “No one has to work in journalism.”
That’s true, of course. But we as a society don’t want journalism controlled by harassment mobs, where only the people they leave alone, or those with especially thick skins, can do it. Gives them too much power, bad for media and discourse.
Read 6 tweets

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