The Law of Large Numbers is one of the most frequently misunderstood concepts of probability and statistics.
Just because you lost ten blackjack games in a row, it doesn’t mean that you’ll be more likely to be lucky next time.
What is the law of large numbers, then? Read on:
The strength of probability theory lies in its ability to translate complex random phenomena into coin tosses, dice rolls, and other simple experiments.
So, let’s stick with coin tossing.
What will the average number of heads be if we toss a coin, say, a thousand times?
To mathematically formalize this question, we’ll need random variables.
Tossing a fair coin is described by the Bernoulli distribution, so let X₁, X₂, … be such independent and identically distributed random variables.