"How large that number in the Law of Large Numbers is?"
Sometimes, a thousand samples are large enough. Sometimes, even ten million samples fall short.
How do we know? I'll explain.
First things first: the law of large numbers (LLN).
Roughly speaking, it states that the averages of independent, identically distributed samples converge to the expected value, given that the number of samples grows to infinity.
We are going to dig deeper.
There are two kinds of LLN-s: weak and strong.
The weak law makes a probabilistic statement about the sample averages: it implies that the probability of "the sample average falling farther from the expected value than ε" goes to zero for any ε.
The single biggest argument about statistics: is probability frequentist or Bayesian? It's neither, and I'll explain why.
Buckle up. Deep-dive explanation incoming.
First, let's look at what is probability.
Probability quantitatively measures the likelihood of events, like rolling six with a dice. It's a number between zero and one. This is independent of interpretation; it’s a rule set in stone.
In the language of probability theory, the events are formalized by sets within an event space.
(The event space is also a set, usually denoted by Ω.)