The exit of Uber and Lyft strikes me as being reflective of growing pragmatism in the AV space, as does the increasing importance of auto OEM partnerships and the shift toward trucking and logistics. I think we're largely past the bottom of the trough at this point.
The X-Factor in this is Tesla. They never stopped acting like we're still in the midst of Peak AV Hype, and the massive risks they've embraced with their approach (see the latest fatal crash) could still send the entire sector back to deep Trough of Disillusionment territory.
One of the more disheartening things about the reaction to the most recent Tesla crash has been the number of people saying: "see, self-driving cars will never work." Most of the public has no idea that Tesla's issues are in no way reflective of the rest of the AV sector.
The situation reminds me of the @faizsays piece about the "Techlash" and AVs: Silicon Valley folks he interviewed assumed that the scary-looking, sensor-clad AVs were taking the risks that the Teslas (which just faded into the background) were taking. thedrive.com/tech/30151/sil…
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Unless Tesla's carbon impact calculation practices have changed, the carbon impact numbers here assume that all Superchargers only use zero-emission power... which is inconveniently disproven by the promise that they will only start doing so sometime this year. 🙈🙉🙊
One of the most jarring revelations from my first big Tesla story, about its battery swap scheme, was discovering that Tesla's "carbon impact" claims were pure fiction. Their spox insisted they were "not trying to pull a fast one" but they clearly were. dailykanban.com/2015/05/27/tes…
Let's start with the easy stuff: @Lebeaucarnews got a basic fact wrong, his own outlet (@CNBC) has reported that NHTSA has opened at least 28 investigations into Tesla crashes and 24 of those are STILL OPEN TODAY. cnbc.com/2021/04/19/tes…
Obviously the fact that most of NHTSA's Tesla crash investigations are still open casts doubt on @Lebeaucarnews' opinion that they exonerated Tesla and blamed the driver.
But the biggest issue I have here is Phil's framing: this is not a choice between blaming driver or system.
By far the most in-depth investigations of Autopilot-involved crashes were by the @NTSB, and in every case they found that the design of the system contributed to misuse and the crash/death. Not one or the other, but both.
It appears that I am no longer the only person concerned about chain of custody issues for vehicle data related to crashes that may have involved Autopilot. I can't remember a time when a warrant was used to obtain data from Tesla, so this seems big.
To clarify, it seems that the Precinct 4 Constable Mark Herman quoted in the tweet embedded above has subpoenaed the offboard vehicle data, which makes more sense than an arrest warrant. click2houston.com/news/local/202…
Two people dead, nobody in the driver seat. 6,000 lb experiments in half-baked, camera-only autonomy, capable of doing 0-60 in under 3 seconds, just roaming the streets. I love living in a SciFi dystopia. click2houston.com/news/local/202…
We don't know what happened here, but we shouldn't be at all surprised that it has happened.
It's not just that a life-and-death experiment is allowed to play out, in the hands of amateurs, on public streets. It's that a chorus of ghouls cheers it to this inevitable conclusion.
Just watch: today the ghouls will all be singing from the second stanza of their hymnbook. Today will be filled with cries of "it's just driver assistance" and "the driver is always responsible."
In a week they will all be back to "it basically drives itself! The future is now!"
Can someone explain how humans might make this uniquely hospitable planet uninhabitable, but somehow not do the exact same thing to far, far less hospitable planets?
Saw a tweet yesterday comparing SpaceX to the Dutch East India Company... as a good thing.
I had to literally put my phone down. The sheer inaccuracy of the comparison (um, what resources are there to plunder on Mars?) was exceeded only by its historically-illiterate amorality.
There's a real kernel of truth there though: claiming, occupying and despoiling any perceived vacuum within our grasp is a consistent human drive, as is the need to dress it up in the latest flavors. Space gives this drive new scope, while "saving" us from its consequences here.
In fact, the Ford system that Elon is bashing here has the very two features that the NTSB determined could have prevented those fatal Autopilot-involved crashes: a camera-based driver monitoring system, and operational design domain limits. Autopilot still doesn't have these!
Here are the NTSB investigations of three fatal Autopilot crashes: