1/ New Infinite Loops with @OSAMResearch Partner @Jesse_Livermore drops this Thursday, April 29th!

Jesse: "I think the intrinsic value of an asset is what it's worth is in itself, from owning it for, for its own sake. I think a good way to test this is to just ask yourself for
2/ any asset or anything in general, anything, whatever it is, what would be the most that you would pay for it? If you were stuck with it forever?"
~@Jesse_Livermore

Next, we have Transactional Value which Jesse describes thus:
3/ "The transactional value would be the value that comes from the fact that there's this network of confidence in the market, that people have been doing this for hundreds of years and we know that when you wake up tomorrow, the S&P is not going to be at 500.
4/ It's going to be near where it was yesterday and people are kind of anchored to where it's price is and you can sell, and you can basically take all your money, 100% of it and put it into the stock market and know that you'll be able
5/ to get a lot of that out anytime you need to. That's the transactional value, which is the premium."
~@Jesse_Livermore

A simple heuristic is Intrinsic Value + Transactional Value=a good proxy for overall attractiveness of the asset or asset class.
6/ Start applying this simple mental model to either current or anticipated investments and asset classes and you'll reframe the way you think about the merits of an asset or asset class.

Tune in on Thursday and listen to Jesse apply it to various investments!

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More from @jposhaughnessy

25 Apr
1/🚨New Colleague at Infinite Loops🚨

I'm delighted to introduce you to my newest colleague at Infinite Loops: Vatsal Kaushik (@antilibrary_vk) who, in addition to being an incredibly talented man, demonstrates the emerging power of the Digital World
2/ Time, Space and Geography are collapsing--Vatsal lives in Bangalore, India, but that no longer matters in the digital world.

We've already established an easy working relationship via text, emails and Zooms. Yesterday, I marveled this would have been impossible just a
3/ few years ago, but one of the positives of the global lockdown is it accelerated trends that might have taken years absent our need to adapte.

It's now clear to me that geography no longer matters--if you have access to high speed Internet,
Read 14 tweets
14 Apr
1/ Book recommendation with a discussion of Optimism versus Pessimism, a thread, Part One

Nullius in Verba (take nobody’s word for it.)
~Horace

amazon.com/Beginning-Infi…
2/ For much of human history, when someone wanted to figure out *why* something was the way it was, they often heard the same answer “The Gods did it.”

@DavidDeutschOxf, in his seminal book “The Beginning of Infinity: Explanations That Change the World” argues that’s
3/ why humans made so little progress over much of unrecorded and recorded history. Generation after generation were born, lived and died under the same “rules” and bad explanations such that one could conceivably be born 200 years after a great, great-grandfather and yet
Read 22 tweets
10 Apr
1/ My thesis that by externalizing our thoughts by writing them out, we:

~Understand if we understand or not (writing is a forcing mechanism);
~Quickly see holes or problems in our ideas that we wouldn't grasp if they just remained in our thoughts;
2/

~Externalize our thinking in time such that our minds can't helpfully "update" our memories to make them consistent with what we know and think now (hindsight bias);
~Help us understand WHY we were thinking things at the time and remind us that our "memories" are unreliable
3/ narrators. There's nothing quite as shocking as truly thinking you thought something during some event and then being called a liar in your own handwriting.

This is vital for correcting our errors and updating our mental models. I simply can't think of any other easy activity
Read 5 tweets
2 Apr
1/An anecdote from this book, that shows us that while our memes are better, it's still the same script, just with different actors

amazon.com/Plungers-Peaco…
2/ Edward Harriman, a railroad baron and stock speculator, had a keen understanding of the power of human emotions in pricing a stock.

Asked if he could sell Southern Pacific, then trading at $70 a share for $80 per share, he answered: No, but he *could* move the price
3/ of the stock UP to $150 per share and then sell it DOWN to $100 per share.

When asked why, he said that a $10 move in the share price wasn't big enough to ignite the imaginations of stock investors, but that an $80 spurt in the price would capture everyone's attention
Read 4 tweets
28 Mar
1/ Book recommendation

This extraordinary book, like much of what it explores, is difficult to categorize, but if you read/view it, you will come away thinking that is a very good thing indeed.

amazon.com/Unflattening-N…
2/ Author/illustrator @Nsousanis liberates us from "Flatland" by fusing symbols, images, and language together in an almost magical way. He quotes S.I. Hayakawa: "We are the prisoners of ancient orientations imbedded in the languages we have inherited." There's a way out:
3/ "Text immersed in images" and "pictures anchored by words" allow us to escape from the linear world of Flatland into the three dimensional (and more) world of many nonlinear dimensions. The world we live in requires this reframing of thought, as it and we become
Read 17 tweets
21 Mar
We are increasingly comfortable with abstractions.

I remember vividly when this music video came out in 1983, with its novel close-cuts and an androgynous Annie Lennox, everyone thought it was the coolest thing in the world:

Now, it seems quaint.

And you can pretty much do anything you want, your only boundaries are your own imagination and creativity.

For example:

And virtual art is making a splash, not just NFTs:

Read 6 tweets

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