As you can see from the chart, COVID created a lot of volatility. Unlike in Europe and North America, a lot of restaurants were forced to close, esp in Q1 2020.
2/ You can also see they've been aggressively cutting costs. Adj EBITDA % losses as a % of revenue rapidly going down.
3/ Exciting growth ahead for India over the next few decades (anxiously waiting for more Indian IPOs).
4/ Cohorts spending more over time. I *think* this includes churned users which would be great.
5/ Supposedly they've dethroned Swiggy and have become the leader?
"According to RedSeer, we have consistently gained market share over the last four years to become the category leader in the food delivery space in India in terms of GOV from October 1, 2020 to March 31, 2021."
6/ $UBER owns about 9% of the business. Assuming they IPO at $6-$7B, this wouldn't be as good of a return as Grab or DiDi given the cumulative cash burn in India over the years 😞
7/ Personally, given all of the volatility in India, I'm going to wait and see how they perform in the medium term. The current private valuation ($5.4B) feels a little rich. I'm also interested to see Swiggy's numbers once they file later this year.
1/ This week's Q3 earnings call w/ $FB will likely go down as one of the biggest bets in history. IMO they'll spend >$170B over the next decade on building the metaverse. Since it's my largest position, I've been spending a lot of time reflecting. Attached are my "scratch notes"
2/ At least in recent memory, never has a tech company made an investment like this. IMO what makes this so different from other bets like AWS, Netflix originals, etc. is the following..
3/
- The use cases and market demand were much more certain
- They were side bets, not pivots of the entire company
- there were short feedback loops with the mkt. As the initial bets showed PMF the investment size increased in lock-step
1/ Quick thoughts on $TKWY CPM day. Overall, not a lot of new news, mostly the same talking points that we've heard over the last year. I am generally a little bit *more* bullish on $GRUB but it's clear now it's mostly a tool to divert $UBER and $DASH resources away from Europe
2/ I have generally thought the long-term penetration of food delivery is >70% over the next 1-2 decades (let's assume AV doesn't rollout and accelerate that). As you can see, lots headroom left even in their "mature" markets
3/ Existing cohorts are ordering more on a net basis. Since acquisition is usually a one time upfront cost, this leads to compounding cashflows over time.
1/ As we enter Q4, a lot of people are starting up strategic planning for the next year. At Uber Eats, I was lucky to have the opportunity to run annual strategic planning. On the way I made a ton of dumb mistakes, so here are some learnings that hopefully save ppl some headache:
2/ First time I ran planning we didn't have a good definition of what a strategy was. Here's mine:
A strategy is a set of major long-term decisions on where you'll compete (industries, segments, geos, etc.) and how you'll win.
3/ A strategy is NOT:
- KPI, metrics, or goal setting
- A tactical list of projects or initiatives
- A product roadmap
- Vague statements about being a market leader, being the best, etc.
These may be part of strategic planning but aren't strategic planning on their own.
1/ Last $UBER update for the day from Dara at a GS conference, lots of new info:
Delivery
- Was the fastest growing delivery platform in the US in Q3, took market share from $DASH and $GRUB 👀
- #1 in 8 out of 10 largest markets. Will be profitable rest of the year
2/ Delivery cont'd
- 7% of users are engaging with new verticals (grocery, alcohol, etc.), $3B GB run-rate. For these users, freq goes up 1.5x and monthly retention is up by 10%
- Thinks ads can surpass 1-2% of GB (currently $52B)
- Brought in new ad exec from $AMZN, Mark Grether
3/ Mobility
- Leaned in proactively to grow supply in Q2, starting to taper now
- Supply hours were up 9% in the last 2 weeks alone
- Aug. session growth stalled from delta but growing again in Sept.
- UK changes will hit margins, creates a $200M headwind but can be absorbed
1/ $UBER Q2 earnings a mixed bag. Driver incentives larger than expected leading to a miss on Adj. EBITDA (-$509M vs. -$325M) but a beat on rev ($3.9B vs. $3.7B). Experience has deteriorated in the US, so long-term investing in supply right move but losses still hard to swallow
2/ The good news is that July trends are positive. In the US, active drivers up 75% YoY and new drivers up 30% MoM even as incentives are being tapered. US/Can mobility down 76% vs. 2019 but EMEA fully recovered. 90% of US drivers surveyed said they'll be back in Sept.
3/ Eats ($51B RR) is now driving user acquisition for rides..
"In Q2, over 20% of Mobility’s first-time riders in the US and more than 40% of first-time riders in the UK were existing Delivery consumers"
One of the reasons why I think you'll see continued investment in Eats UK
1/ Have been researching $GOOG and it's now my 3rd largest position by book value after $FB and $UBER. Initially ignored assuming it was too obvious, "law of big numbers", and that Search was maturing. Instead I've concluded the next Google might be.. Google?
Notes attached.
2/ Implied expectations from CS - only 5% sales growth with EBITDA margins falling to 34% longer term. If 11% sales growth through ‘30 = 40% upside. Est. ’21 growth rate at 28% and EBITDA margins at 37%. FCF expected to compound ~20% from ‘21-‘26
3/ YT 2nd largest global video platform and under monetized ($10 ARPU); 1.5 billion MAUs avging 40 mins. Reaches more 18-49 yr olds than all linear TV combined. 40% of ads that run on YT are now on TV sets vs 12% 2 years ago. Platform best positioned to capture >$62B TV ad spend