Thread by @firefoxx66

From the 'USA state' view (new) at CoVariants.org, I think the dynamics of 20C/S:484K (B.1.526) are intriguing.

Most variants that were circulating at end-2020 have declined after 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) (red) expanded - very noticeable with 20C/S:452R (purple) in CA:

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But in states with 20C/S:484K (pink), this has seemed to grow alongside 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7) (red) - sometimes growing, other times holding steady, or at least not declining significantly (may yet happen).

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Some preprints have estimated the transmission of 20C/S:484K to be similar to 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7).
20C/S:484K carries the 'Eek' 484K mutation in spike, which may be why neutralization (immune recognition) is lower.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
biorxiv.org/content/10.110…

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For me this makes 20C/S:484K one to watch at the moment - so many variants have nosedived in the face of 501Y.V1 (B.1.1.7), it's interesting to see one that doesn't seem to give way so quickly. The 484K mutation also warrants interest.

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covariants.org/variants/20C.S…

A really complex question for scientists right now is figuring out exactly what combinations of what mutations seem to lead to what changes in transmission, outcome, or antigenicity (immune recognition).
We see some mutations repeatedly, but in different 'groups'.

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S:E484 mutations, for example, seem to generally be bad news, but the 'degree of badness' seems to vary from variant to variant - possibly related to who else is in their 'gang'. What other mutations might be making it more or less 'bad'?

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covariants.org/variants/S.E484

Scientists are gathering clues to help decipher these combinations every day & looking at differences between variants - like why 20C/S:484K may be less yielding to 501Y.V1(B.1.1.7) than other variants - will help narrow down what 'mutation gangs' to watch out for in future!

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