Thread by @BrettKelman

In Southern states with the slowest rollout of the COVID-19 vaccine, the strongest indicator of very low vaccination rates is … Trump voters. Simply, where Trump got more votes, fewer get vaccinated.

That’s a big problem. And this is a thread 1/. tennessean.com/in-depth/news/…

.@VincentDGabriel and I have chipped away at this big story since February. Yes, it is behind a paywall. Yes, you must be a subscriber to read it. But it will publish in @USATODAY Network papers throughout the south, so you can read it if you are a subscriber to any of them.

If you aren't a subscriber yet, please consider becoming one. Subscriptions are not a reward for one good story. They are an investment in the journalism on horizon. We need you. And, I believe, you need us. cm.tennessean.com/specialoffer/?…

For those of you who aren't subscribers yet, I’m going to summarize a few of the major findings from this story here. But this thread will only cover the basics. There is much more depth and substance in the article, including a detailed map featuring county-by-county data.

Also, for those of you who read my coverage regularly, there is a little scoop at the end of this thread.

It is a rare bit of good news.

This article examines vaccine data from 800ish counties in 9 southern states for about 2 months. We found the correlation between Trump votes and low vaccinations was widespread, but is strongest in states with the slowest rollouts: Alabama, Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee.

Vaccination rates are below the national average in nearly every inch of these four states. But they are lowest in areas that overwhelmingly voted for former President Donald Trump in the 2020 election. Where Biden won or the election was close, many more people are vaccinated.

In fact, the correlation between Trump support and low vaccination rates is stronger than any link between vaccines and race, age, poverty, unemployment, population density or general health. In short, even now, it appears nothing matters more than Trump.

Also, while many feared Black Americans would be the most hesitant to be vaccinated, our results show the exact opposite. This is most visible in Alabama, where the few counties that are mostly Black account for 7 out of 10 of the highest vaccinations rates in the state.

Some of the findings of this story were predicted by public polling. Polls have shown again and again that Republicans are the most unwilling to be vaccinated. But those polls forecast the future. Our findings are built on real-world data. This is happening, for real, right now.

Why is this bad? A few reasons. First, low vaccination rates increase risk for those who can’t get vaccinated, like kids. Second, low rates increase the chances for the birth of a dangerous variant that may spread to everywhere, regardless of political leaning or vaccine rates.

And third, some of these Trumpian counties REALLY need vaccines.

For example, in East Tennessee, the counties where Trump won biggest don't just have the lowest vaccination rates. They are also far more likely to be poorer, unhealthier and more vulnerable.

We have the fewest vaccinations in the places that need vaccinations the most.

How do we fix this? Trump. Every expert we interviewed said no one has more power to sway conservatives than the former president himself. Trump could convince many of them to reconsider. So far, he hasn’t really tried.

Since leaving office, Trump has repeatedly talked about how he deserves more “credit” for vaccines, and even floated renaming them “Trumpcine.” But he rarely actually advocates for vaccinations. And he kept his own vaccination quiet for months. That was a deliberate choice.

There is no doubt Trump remains a power player in American politics. He could use his reach and influence to encourage his supporters to protect themselves. If he did, would they listen? I don’t know.

I would like to live in a world where we find out.

Finally, I promised a scoop if you got to the end of this thread. Here it is: This will most likely be my last big story for a while. After a challenging year of nonstop virus coverage, I will be taking a month off so my partner and I can welcome our first child.

This was a terrifying year to have a kid on the way, especially if you spend your days (and nights) seeped in virus stories like I do. Pregnancy makes my partner more susceptible to COVID-19 complications, and even the best hospitals can’t eliminate the risk of exposure.

Fortunately, as the big day finally approaches, we can move forward with lots of excitement and little trepidation. Why?

I believe we are as ready as new parents can be.

And, also, because we are both fully vaccinated.