597k total doses today, up 12%, so the 7D total is now up to 3.7m.
First doses of 134k are up 14%, so we are now giving first jabs to nearly 850k each week.
1/5
2nd doses of 463k are up a healthy 11%, and bring the total to over 14m. That's broadly equivalent to the most vulnerable groups 1 to 4, though as we've seen throughout the distribution isn't quite that simple.
2.85m over 7 days is another new record.
2/5
England take-up figures show first doses making slow progress, (though this predates the opening of 42-44).
It's disappointing that the 50-54 group has not reached 90%, so we can see a clear trend downwards from 65 to 50. It's too early to form a view on 45-49 yet though.
3/5
2nd dose take-up is now very good above age 75 with good progress in the cohort below too.
Though above 75 there are still around 10% of those who had 1st jabs who have not yet had a second one, slightly worrying for the most vulnerable in society.
4/5
For completeness, here's the equivalent PHE figures published simultaneously. The percentages here are based on NIMS figures, which look like they may be slightly more realistic than the ONS figures used by the NHS data.
5/5
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A great thread on the state pension and National Insurance.
For me, the trailed abolition of NI and thus its replacement by general taxation in terms of funding state pension benefits will have a major generational redistribution of tax.
It’s been the case that (in aggregate) at any one time the working generation funds the SPs of the retired generation above it.
2/
If the abolition of NI results in an increase (albeit smaller - else why bother) in income tax, whilst those in work will in total be better off, pensioners will be worse off.
3/
The Pensions & Lifetime Savings Association has updated its guide to living costs in retirement. The full report is well worth a read, and goes into a lot of detail.
One key point is that it assumes that pensioners own their home outright - probably reasonable now, but the shift to renting means that in future years that may become increasingly questionable.
2/
It focuses on retirement income, but note that other sources may be used to fund retirement, whether it be income from savings/investments, or gradual withdrawal of capital. Much more likely to be relevant for those aspiring to a comfortable lifestyle of course.
3/
UKHSA estimates that prevalence of COVID in England and Scotland has nearly tripled in the month since the ONS restarted its COVID infection surveillance.
Fortunately prevalence is lowest at the oldest, more vulnerable age groups, but is estimated at just under 6% in the 18 to 44 age groups.
2/
Prevalence is estimated to be highest in the London area, at just over 6% across the population. Note though that confidence intervals are wider due to lower sample sizes than in previous studies.
So with the news this morning that the earnings growth announced today means the state pension (SP) will very likely increase by another 8.5% next year, it's time to set out once again why the SP triple lock (TL) is such a bad idea.
1/
It's all down to cherry-picking the best of the three rates each year. I did a thread nearly a year ago, that hopefully sets out clearly how the mechanism inevitably means that the SP will grow over time against both earnings (E) and prices (P).
With BH's still distorting individual weeks' figures, the cumulative position gives a better view, with the latest CMI age-standardised analysis showing mortality 3.8% (of a full year's mortality) worse than its reference year of 2019.
Here's the mea culpa - it was only wrong by a factor of 13, but at least the post has been deleted rather than just corrected and left up, when experience shows that only a fraction of the original audience will see the correction.
So what are the true numbers?
2/
In E&W the peak week in 2020 was just under 9,000, and the second wave peak was pretty close to that number.
In total ONS has recorded 199,728 COVID related deaths in E&W since the pandemic started.