I have a theory about the PM's resilience in the polls despite current "difficulties"...

An awful lot of voters like him personally. They don't kid themselves about his honesty. They've known his flaws for some time but don't care. They voted for him despite those flaws. 1/n
They're also aware that many other people detest him and are willing to use any available method to depose him, just as they tried to use any available method to prevent Brexit from happening. 2/n
But there is really only one way to depose a populist/popular politician - the ballot box. It worked with Trump in a way that impeachment simply wouldn't have. Voters like being the ones to choose their leaders. 3/n
So every time a non-ballot-box method is suggested as a means of getting shot of him, his voter base sees it as just that - the usual suspects trying something else, even when there is merit to the case. 4/n
And these repeated attempts are giving Boris increased political immunity - it's like a vaccine. They've tried too many times before and people don't like it. 5/n
Of course, vaccines don't offer 100% protection. One of these attempts (particularly around the flat refurb) may yet bring him down. And maybe deservedly. But don't expect any gratitude from his former supporters. 6/n
If it succeeds, it's not going to drive voters into the arms of Keir Starmer. They'll resent being deprived "unfairly" of their PM. You have to let voters have the final say. 7/7

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More from @ajwillshire

2 May
Fascinating column in @thetimes on the use of data in Timpsons by @JamesTCobbler Image
Reflecting on this and some of the replies...
Timpson's can do this in part because their business model is simple. There is little need to use data for "discovery", i.e., understanding the underlying system. Other companies are not so fortunate.
This leads back to the question that all analytic projects should start with - "What are you actually trying to do/understand?"
And it's amazing how often that is an afterthought compared to just implementing vast and complex solutions on the recommendation of a consultant.
Read 7 tweets
30 Apr
This is an interesting question. Instinctively I want to stand upright and declare that politics is no place for scoundrels and rogues (stop laughing at the back). But it isn't as easy as that...
For example, I reckon that if I lent Jeremy Corbyn £20 I would be more likely to get it back than from Boris. If I needed a politician who stuck to his principles doggedly then Corbyn is a great shout. But that's not necessarily what I want.
Would I prefer a PM who inflicted billions of bounds of damage to the country's economy but would never pocket £20k himself (or herself)? Would I prefer someone who was openly communist or fascist but an honest one to a crook who wouldn't wreck the country? No.
Read 7 tweets

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