Al-Qaeda is unlikely to direct mass-casualty attacks in the US homeland in 2021 but online communication between AQAP and Pensacola attacker shows the ability of the group to capitalize on opportunities.
Al-Qaeda's appeal to Salafi jihadists has waned due to ISIS, unlikely to change in 2021; Zawahiri remains in hiding (so alive?).
In Afghanistan, al-Qaeda and affiliate AQIS have a marginal role in the Taliban's insurgency; AQIS was weaker than years before due to little discernible activity, has less than 200 fighters; al-Qaeda/AQIS will "bolster its relationship with the Taliban."
In North Africa, AQIM's threat is at its lowest point in a decade; AQIM maintains networks to support JNIM.
In West Africa, terrorist threats continue to expand, JNIM and ISIS continued their attacks, threatened to expand into the coastal countries.
Shabaab poses the "most severe terrorism threat in East Africa"; has 5000 to 10000 fighters and the capability to conduct high-profile attacks in the region, target the US and regional forces. n/n
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Interesting and unusual interview of Chinese consul general in Karachi Li Bijian on Pakistan’s political situation, challenges facing Chinese investors and security situation. Some highlights: geo.tv/latest/430300-…
Says the new coalition government is “very impressive”, Shehbaz is “bulldozer prime minister.”
Offers political advice to the coalition government:
After Pak missed the July 2 IMF board meeting & the currency started crashing, it was overdetermined that Pak will not be able to wait till the next meeting in August & ask for an early disbursal of the IMF tranche. So in that sense I am not surprised this happened. But…
…fact that Bajwa made this call to Dep Sec Sherman tells me the crisis has deepened, other options stand exhausted, and the economy is teetering on the brink. Worth remembering that last week, Pak PM assistant Fatemi also met Sherman. state.gov/deputy-secreta…
We will see if the US gov’t is able (& willing?) to do anything. Still overall the US has been working with Pak on various issues since late last year — despite shadow of the US withdrawal from AFG, memory of Pak’s support of Taliban, as well as Khan’s regime change theatrics.
He is also tracking negotiations with the IMF and IMF's asks of Pak. In this story he notes Pakistan needs to assure IMF of Saudi financing and reminds that Pak needs $41 billion over next 12 months to fund debt repayments and boost FOREX reserves:
Al-Qaeda is more settled and Zawahiri more comfortable and communicative since the Taliban’s takeover. It doesn’t pose an immediate threat from AFG due to lack of capability; it also doesn’t wish to embarrass or make things difficult for the Taliban.
Al-Qaeda has a committee called the Hittin Committee, which manages global leadership. Next in line for the group after Zawahiri are core’s Adl, Maghrebi, AQIM’s Yazib Mebrak and Shabaab’s Diriye; Idlib-based Hurras leader Suri is also on the committee. Hittin has demoted AQAP.
.@IKPeshawar reports Pak & TTP have "agreed to extend the ceasefire and continue peace talks following separate meetings with Mullah Muhammad Hassan Akhund, Acting Prime Minister of the ‘Islamic Emerate of Afghanistan (IEA)’ at his office the other day." dawn.com/news/1692383/i…
Confirms presidential pardon for TTP leaders Muslim, Mehmood Khan: "GoP, sources said, had demonstrated its seriousness by acceding to some of the TTP’s demands...presidential pardon to two key militant commanders, including TTP Swat spokesman Muslim Khan, was one such demand."
"...days of “intense and extensive negotiations” in the Afghan capital attended by senior level delegations from the two sides that at one point seemed close to breakdown...Sirajuddin Haqqani, who is the central mediator, helped bring the talks back on track, sources said."