Frederik Christopher Gieschen Profile picture
Apr 29, 2021 11 tweets 4 min read Read on X
Shoutout to the Khosrowshahi family. Wealthy Iranian industrialists who had to flee during the revolution.

Dara Khosrowshahi, CEO of Uber: “We were all on the ground, terrified. That was when my mom said, ‘We’re leaving.’ I’ve never been back.”
Ali Khosrowshahi had founded the Minoo Industrial Company in 1959, a manufacturer of cookies, chocolates, cosmetics, and pharmaceuticals.

Other family branches included Tolypers, a chemical company, and a construction company, the Khosrowshahi Brothers Company (KBC).
“My father felt that he wanted to keep our wealth in [Iran], so my parents lost the vast majority of what they had.”
Today there is Dara Khosrowshahi of Allen & Co, IAC, Expedia, and Uber.
His Uncle Hassan Khosrowshahi who built Future Shop, a computer and electronics retail chain in Canada. Sold to Best Buy for C$580 million.
Hassan's children Golnar and Behzad who used the family office to incubate investment businesses in music rights (Reservoir Media) and healthcare royalties (DRI).
Then there's Dara's cousin Amir Khosrowshahi: co-founder of Nervana Systems, a software company sold to Intel for $350 million
Farzad "Fuzzy" K. built spreadsheets to model CDOs at JP Morgan. His web-based spreadsheet startup was acquired by Google and turned into Google Sheets.

Kaveh K. is a partner at Allen & Co. Lots more relatives in the tech world.
“The network of our family has grown stronger now with so many younger cousins,” says Hadi, who organizes the family’s reunions, 100-­person affairs with water balloon tosses and talent shows for attendees ranging in age from newborns to 90-year-olds.
“I saw my family losing everything, and you know what? We rebuilt a life.”

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More from @NeckarValue

Oct 25, 2023
What are your favorite pieces with reflections on investment success and failure or lessons from decades in markets?

A few that come to mind:
Mark Sellers: So You Want To Be The Next Warren Buffett? How is Your Writing?

"If your competitors know your secret and yet still can't copy it, that's a structural advantage. That's a moat."

"Trait #1 is the ability to buy stocks while others are panicking and sell stocks while others are euphoric.

When 1999 comes around and the market is going up almost every day, you can't bring yourself to sell because if you do, you may fall behind your peers."
Read 11 tweets
Sep 29, 2023
Very interesting new paper by @mjmauboussin on the corporate lifecycle.

Rather than go by age or size, the framework ties life cycle to cash flows.

Stages: Introduction > Growth > Maturity > Shake-out >Decline.

Roughly: Investing -> returning capital -> liquidating assets.
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Unexpected:
"We expected low or negative spreads between ROIC and WACC for companies newly listed, rising spreads as they mature, a decline in senescence.

What we found was nearly the opposite. The spread at the date of the IPO was high and narrowed before stabilizing."
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Companies going public (selling equity to new investors) when return on capital looks most attractive (and is about to decline)?

Returns to shareholders on the other hand were most attractive for more mature companies.
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Read 6 tweets
Jun 9, 2023
Druckenmiller: "I am so tired of being a bear, and being labeled a bear."

But: Liquidity ⬇️
"Since it's taken so long, the Fed has ended up with a higher terminal rate. Inflation gets stickier the longer its in the system. That increases the probability of a hard landing." Image
"We always short the same way. ... I try and think of a situation 12 to 18 months from now and if I think the security prices are going to be less, I short.

Frankly, I'm not sure I've ever made money in shorts. I like it. It's fun, but you can get your head handed to you."
"When I was at Soros, I shorted $200 million worth of Internet stocks in March of 99. And in three weeks covered them at a $600 million loss. I lost $600 million on a $200 million investment in three weeks.

I was short 12 stocks. They all went bankrupt Every one of them."
Read 6 tweets
Jun 8, 2023
ROIC and margins for companies with different moats by @mjmauboussin ImageImage
"A company creates value when its ROIC is in excess of cost of capital. Stated differently, it makes a dollar worth of investment worth more than a dollar in market value.

The market broadly appreciates this, especially when growth is considered as an additional variable."
"Markets are akin to an ecosystem where investors fill various niches. Investors with a short-term horizon tend to focus on near-term metrics such as sales and earnings.

Investors with a long-term horizon focus on competitive advantage and the size of the market opportunity."
Read 5 tweets
May 24, 2023
Like other great investors, Sam Zell used content as a form of leverage. His "guide to the risky art of resurrecting dead properties" earned him his nickname, the Grave Dancer. Image
"Some might see buying and creating value from others’ mistakes as a form of exploitation, but I see it as giving neglected or devalued assets new life.

Often in my career I’ve been the only bidder for them—the last chance for a resurrection."
"I’m not claiming to be altruistic— just optimistic, and confident that I can turn those assets around.

That, in my definition, is an entrepreneur. Someone who doesn’t just see the problems but also sees the solutions—the opportunities."
Read 10 tweets
May 9, 2023
Druckenmiller keynote on debt, entitlements, and the dollar.

"The Fed can’t save us."
"The demographic storm is just getting under way." ImageImage
"In 20 or 30 years there will be fewer young workers, many more seniors that need support… and the starting point is the highest national debt in our history."
"Booming economies in 2018 and 2022 never had worse fiscal results. Unless something changes, this Bipartisan “Ratcheting effect” will continue." Image
Read 6 tweets

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