Thread by @EstherOfReilly

Hi Michael! So glad you asked. Let me explain. No, there is too much, let me sum up. /1

https://twitter.com/michaelshermer/status/1387876906847117314

The first issue here is the problem of what we're even talking about when we talk about "extraordinary." If the claim is that the sort of evidence we have for ordinary historical truth claims could never establish a miracle, this is false, and a Bayesian modeling explains why. /2

Let's say "R = Resurrection," "~R = not Resurrection," "E = Evidence," "P = probability of" and "|" means "given." Here's the fraction to watch: "P(E|R)/P(E|~R)." I want to know if *this* fraction is top-heavy--if the numerator way outweighs the denominator. /3

If this fraction is top-heavy, then when multiplied by the ratio of the priors, it can still yield a high final number. So even if you want to give a miracle an itsy-bitsy-teenie-weenie-yellow-polkadot-bikini number to start with, as long as it isn't 0, this is possible. /4

I think it can be convincingly argued that the fraction is, indeed, top-heavy, not just for the resurrection but for the gospels' general reliability. The paper I linked in the post goes into some of that detail, but much, much more could be said. /5

My personal favorite is the gospel of John, over which much ink has of course been spilled, but if you're curious I wrote a thing about it @spectator and threw up a link to further reading at the top there. /6

spectator.co.uk/article/what-s…

Of course I'm aware of the various arguments from contradiction, etc. that your boy Larry Shapiro gestures to from Bart Ehrman et alia, and I even grant that some apologists like Mike Licona have done an anemic job in this area, especially by clinging to minimalism. /7

I personally don't argue for the resurrection from "minimal facts," as I think it leaves too much wiggle room for alternate hypotheses. But, good news for me, I don't have to! There's an abundance of other resources for a stronger case to be made. /8

I'm persuaded that in the final analysis, we're really asking whether it's hypothetically possible that you could be mistaken about whether your best friend rose from the dead, ate sausage McMuffins with you, and spent over a month just...hanging out. /9

I guess all things are hypothetically possible. But I'm not convinced.

Ten is a nice round number, so I'll leave it there, but meanwhile thanks very much for the kind words. Hope this helps. Oh, and don't forget to subscribe to my Substack! /End

estheroreilly.substack.com

P. S. Not that it would make a difference to the sorts of writers who use the ECREE line, I don't think, but in a sense you could say it's "extraordinary" that, e.g., the apostles were willing to die for a concrete physical claim of resurrection. Not something you see every day.

(The "for a concrete claim of physical resurrection" being what separates them from Muslim terrorists, etc., who are dying for a faith but not a physical claim.)