Thread by @gauravsabnis

I find it hard to believe that some other senior leaders within the BJP aren't at least contemplating a takhtapalat. Even though they are safe till 2024, it was a widespread resistance movement like this in 2012 that indirectly brought them into power in 2014.

You can sense a shift in the winds in the sanghi quarters this year. Like they realize this might be one bungle too many to still keep counting on loyal support. Even their IT cell game, though virulent as ever, seems to be faltering a bit.

I'm not saying any such attempt will succeed. But it's interesting to think of the possibilities.

I've been reading a lot of Erica Chenoweth recently. They have some mind blowing results from empirical analysis of civil resistance. The 5% rule.

ericachenoweth.com

So the counter-intuitive and also heartening takeaway from the analysis is that you don't necessarily need to win elections and convince the majority to eventually get rid of autocrats. Biden won easily within the system but not everyone needs THAT level of electoral support.

Dr. Chenoweth's analysis finds that even with just 5% of the population actively engaged in nonviolent civil resistance, it usually becomes too much of a headache for those in power to continue. And that others near power will cause a change. For example Hosni Mubarak.

Remember though that this is an empirical analysis and the findings are statistical, not deterministic. The findings suggest what generally works, not what will always work. So like any statistical inference, there will be counter examples.