Unpredictable severe Covid second wave in India: Lessons learned a thread: Have been reading up on this - tried to restrict to unbiased opinions - excluded professional complainers and those who have an axe to grind. Here is what I learnt for whatever it is worth. First of all...
...as I have argued elsewhere I do not agree with the simplistic analysis, that the severity of second wave was predictable. Now over to the lessons learned and what would have been done better. One: We could have better monitored the so called R of Covid ( reproduction rate)...
...in each district, state and nationwide and pro-actively tune our Covid policy based on that - there seems to have been let down of guard here. This is a global best practice. Second: We were not as good we should have been in genomic sequencing of new mutations of virus, a...
...real concern. Third: We did not have a nation wide standard centralised triage system for patients ( a system which tells a doctor who needs home care, normal bed, ICU or Oxygen - Maharashtra has done better here, others very bad). Fourth: Inability to do clever, pro-active...
..contracts with vaccine companies and giving states the freedom to do same. Fifth: Not great examples set by all political parties by holding election rallies. And central government being careless in allowing religious gatherings. Hope we will not ignore these lessons. 🙏

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More from @SimnaniIqbals

2 May
Dear all. Thanks for all the feedback (on and off twitter).
To reiterate somethings. As mentioned in the article, every life lost is too many, and we must hold the central (and state) governments responsible for any lapses shown. I share the grief and shock of those who have...
..lost their lives. I have been myself been on twitter helping wherever possible help people find oxygen, beds, ICU via Apps or other volunteers kind enough to help. I have friends who have lost near and dear ones. I know the situation is very heart breaking. I share your...
...sorrow. As I clearly mentioned in the article, having religious and election gatherings during a pandemic may have contributed too to the Covid surge. I wrote the article to counter some lazy thinking and oversimplifications being propagated. A wrong message was being given...
Read 17 tweets
1 May
Covid second wave India: There is a common misconception (globally) and india that inside the home you are magically safe. Yes if you are the only person in that house and cut off from the world. Being in a closed apartment with an infected person actually increases your...
...chances of infection. So you need put it in context. Ideally wherever governments / people can afford it, Covid patients(even mild ones) should be isolated away from families till they recover. The chances increase dramatically if one is sharing an apartment / house with...
...a Covid positive patient no matter how careful you are ( and the more contagious variant transmits more quickly). The least you should do is ventilate your house as much as possible keeping windows open ( including patient room) and really break air contact as far as...
Read 13 tweets
1 May
Covid India 2nd Wave: While I fully agree we must hold the government accountable (later, for now unity), but the more I read, the more I think about it, I am convinced that those claiming with certainty that severity of second wave was predictable are either plain wrong or...
...have an axe to grind. Fact is pandemics and microbes have their own dynamics which interplay with genetics, age profiles, nutritional levels, climate, fitness of populations, population density and country’s health infrastructure. Since there are so many variables which...
...can affect, all models, statistics and inference should be interpreted with caution as none of the models can into consideration all these factors. If we forget the availability of Oxygen issue, but we simply do not know why Germany or Belgium did not have the same deadly...
Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
The severe unexpected second Covid In India has proven that 1) pandemics can overwhelm in any system in any country no matter how rich. 2) However the lower your people to hospital ratio, the more severely it will affect you. 3) Though India's health infrastructure and...
...governance have improved, India's governance is still low by global standards. 4) And the current ruling party could not demonstrate any visible difference than it predecessors ( nor has opposition Congress given any convincing argument, it had better plans). 5) Health care...
...and other services in India still carry a tag of elitism and often if and what quality of service depends on what kind of 'special' contacts you have - the poor are still left to fend on their own. 6)The concept of scientific temper and basing decisions on data is not yet...
Read 5 tweets
30 Apr
Please read. Heartbreaking. Almost had a tear in my eye. Oh God, Oh Allah, Hey Bhagwan, why are you testing us like this.

indianexpress.com/article/opinio… via @IndianExpress
...There are some lessons to be learnt from this. Article quote: "we learnt that one of my colleagues had been running a fever for almost four days and Joyeeta and I had encountered him in my office". So the most common mode of transmission is closed spaces and unventilated...
...rooms, this needs to be more broadly addressed. Also quarantining covid positive patients at home is not ideal, in best case quarantine them in special places where they cannot infect family till they recover. The other lesson is unless you are a rich country and will to...
Read 4 tweets
26 Apr
The controversial oxygen debate on Covid India: A thread. Though I live outside India, I have family in India and am writing this as people are losing loved ones and are genuinely outraged. Yet we must go by facts though when we lose our loved ones it is natural to be...
...emotional. While there are some who point to data that worrying signs were already showing up in Feb /March and government should have picked up signals should surely be listened to and lessons learned, it was far from black and white. With India's economy battered, the...
...government had to a balancing act between building business confidence and putting more restrictions and where to do spend resources on. Plus unlike other nations , India was not hit by a second wave in November to Dec and some policy makers relied perhaps too much on their...
Read 8 tweets

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