Heikki Keskiväli Profile picture
May 1, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
1/🧵

Here’s Buffett at 32, when he earned a million per year - or $8.8M per year in today’s dollars.

In this thread, we celebrate #BerkshireHathaway AGM weekend by looking closer at how he did it. We finish with a link to the 152 pages of gold: Buffett Partnership letters.
2/🧵

Many hedge fund managers expense so-called “2/20”, meaning that whatever happens with the investments, they get 2% of the assets plus 20% of any profits.

Even though they’d underperform the market, such system would incentivize them for the effort.

“Thanks!”
3/🧵

Here’s the outcome for the investors in this typical 2/20 model. See how 5% returns before fees leave investors with only 2% returns after fees (40% of the total).

But Buffett was different.
4/🧵

Buffett, aged 26, started Buffett Associates (later to be consolidated to Buffett Partnership) with initial capital of $105,100.

In total he raised $105,000 in capital and put in $100 himself. As he put it: “there's no prize for guessing who put in the $100”.
5/🧵

He was no fan of getting paid for nothing. The partnership had various fee structures (see pic below) but mainly the approach was:

- Investors are first paid 6% hurdle rate
- 25% of any excess profits to Buffett, remaining 75% to investors
6/🧵

The Buffett Partnership fee structure was a thing of wonder (albeit only for superior investors).

See attached how his approach protected his Limited Partners from downside, while providing himself with great upside potential.

Oh, did he make his time worthwhile.
7/🧵

The Buffett Partnership quickly left all major indices in the dust. Its overperformance was staggering despite the fund manager’s relatively young age.

You can imagine what kind of an impact this had on Buffett’s wealth.
8/🧵

At inception in 1956, Buffett had put in $100.

In 1961, Warren and his wife Susie already had a net worth of $1.025M in the partnership. That’s roughly $200k per year ($1.5M per year in today’s dollars) for the Buffetts in 1956-1961.

But that was only the start.
9/🧵

In 1961-1965, Buffett’s worth grew 34-101% per year with the success of the partnership, well exceeding the partnership gains of 14-47% per year.

At the age of 35, Buffett’s annual gains, in today’s dollars, reached a stunning $29M.
10/🧵

The partnership ended up growing from $105,100 in 1956 to $7.2M in 1961, only to exceed $100M in size by 1968.

After finding no more attractive buying opportunities in 1969, Buffett liquidated the partnership and started to focus on a company called Berkshire Hathaway.
11/🧵

Here’s me on my pilgrimage to Buffett’s house in Omaha almost a decade ago. Can’t wait for the coronavirus to pass and visit the Annual General Meeting in person.

Hope to meet as many of you there.
12/🧵

Highly recommend reading the amazing partnership letters (152p) from csinvesting.org/wp-content/upl…

Thank you for making it this far with me 😊 Remember to enjoy the meeting today from finance.yahoo.com/brklivestream/

Have a nice weekend!

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More from @hkeskiva

Apr 7
1/🧵

I’ve known Aswath Damodaran is great, but this may well be the most entertaining investment lecture there is.

The whole 45min lecture on the WORST VALUATION MISTAKES AND HOW TO AVOID THEM is worth watching but summarizing best bits in this thread.

🫖
2/🧵

“It takes me 45 mins to get into any topic, so I thought I'd pick something very specific. I thought I'd talk about deferred taxes for 45 mins.

If you think I'm serious, you're sick.”
3/🧵

“Most people who claim to do valuation are not doing valuation. They're doing pricing.

Pick up an equity research report. What do you see? You see a company. You see a multiple. You see comparables. So much of what passes for valuation out there is pricing.”
Read 35 tweets
Feb 24
1/🧵

Viime kerralla kävimme läpi yhtä kassavirtaan keskittyvää lempitunnuslukuani (OCF/CAPEX).

Ketjun jälkeen mieleen juolahti, että lähestymistapaa voi entisestäänkin parantaa. Se kohtelee nimittäin kasvuyhtiöitä epäreilusti. Katsotaan kansantajuisesti, mistä on kyse.

🫖
2/🧵

Edellinen ketjuni käsitteli siis yrityksen kassavirtaprofiilia ja sitä, kuinka se jakautuu liiketoiminnan ja investointien rahavirtaan.

Mikäli ketju on lukematta niin kannattaa ehdottomasti aloittaa siitä.
3/🧵

Sovelletaan edellisen ketjun esimerkkiä vuoteen 1982. Katsotaan nykyään uskomattoman hyvin menestyneen, mutta tuolloin vasta listautuneen The Home Depot’n lukuja.

Yhtiö oli tuolloin vahvassa yli 70% vuosikasvuvauhdissa ja uusia liikkeitä syntyi liukuhihnalta. Image
Read 20 tweets
Feb 17
1/🧵

Sijoittaja tarvitsee tietoa. Ammattilaissijoittajien suosima Bloomberg-terminaali saattaa maksaa kuitenkin yli 20 000 euroa vuodessa, mikä tekee siitä aivan liian kalliin useimmille.

Siksi kerään tähän ketjuun kaikille ilmaisia tietolähteitä, joita käytän itsekin.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

Nostetaan ensimmäisenä kotimarkkinoiden @inderes ja heidän kotisivuilta löytyvät yhtiötiedot erityisesti suomalaisista yhtiöistä.

Tuloslaskelmat, kannattavuusluvut, arvostuskertoimet ja paljon muuta. Ohessa tiedot esimerkkinä Nesteelle. inderes.fi/companies/Neste
Image
3/🧵

@KoyfinCharts on yksi parhaista kansainvälisistä, ilmaisista yritystietopalveluista. Helppokäyttöinen ja laaja palvelu sisältää keskeisiä tietoja myös pohjoismaisista yrityksistä, kuten suomalaisesta @valmetir, jonka tuloslaskelman lukuja ohessa.

app.koyfin.com
Image
Read 23 tweets
Feb 3
1/🧵

Katsotaan tällä kertaa tarkemmin yhtä mieluisimmistani tunnusluvuista, johon en ole törmännyt juurikaan muualla.

Käydään tässä ketjussa läpi, miksi kassavirtojen suhteella on sijoittajalle väliä ja miten se liittyy maailman parhaisiin yhtiöihin.

🫖
2/🧵

Heti kättelyssä tärkeä selventää, että mikään yksittäinen tunnusluku ei kerro sijoituskohteen hyvyyttä tai huonoutta.

Samoin harjoitus on yksinkertaistus ja yksityiskohdilla voi halutessaan kikkailla mielin määrin. Pysyttelemme nyt kuitenkin mahdollisimman helpossa.
3/🧵

Ajatellaan kaksi yhtiötä, joilla molemmilla on sama 100 MEUR vapaa kassavirta. Molemmat yhtiöt arvotetaan viisitoistakertaisesti vapaan kassavirran verran eli molempien hinta 1 500 MEUR.

15 x 100 MEUR = 1 500 MEUR

Molemmat yhtä hyviä, eikö vain?
Read 22 tweets
Nov 19, 2023
1/🧵

The notes from first Damodaran interview got 2+M impressions.

The second episode in “Invest Like the Best” is now out and doesn’t fall short on wisdom from one of the greats.

To save you time, here's key insights from this spectacular 80-min episode.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

@AswathDamodaran appearance was on “Invest Like the Best” by @patrick_oshag. Transcript and audio of this magnificent episode below.

The following notes cover the following topics and more: macro, AI, ZIRP, narratives, ESG...

Now to the notes!
joincolossus.com/episodes/72302…
3/🧵

[MACRO]

"I think there are two prevailing narratives:

- Fed is going to reimpose its power, rates are going to go down, everything is going to go back to the way it was
- mean reversion to the last 10 years"
Read 39 tweets
Oct 29, 2023
1/🧵

It’s a common belief that share buybacks lead to an automatic increase in earnings per share (EPS).

But that’s by no means always true. I’ll tell you why by using Apple $AAPL as an example.

🫖 Image
2/🧵

Let’s start with Apple’s numbers for the last twelve months:

- Net income $95 bln
- Share buybacks $89 bln
- Shares outstanding (diluted, today) 15.775 bln
- Shares outstanding (diluted, year ago) 16.262 bln
3/🧵

So, Apple has basically spent $89 bln to reduce diluted share count by 487 mln shares.

The typical line of thought is that EPS automatically grows since share count is reduced.

Let's confirm this with numbers.
Read 12 tweets

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