👺12 Ways to Spot a Lying CFO👺
🤝collaboration w/ @goodalexander
Stocks move on earnings, so execs will manipulate earnings. How can u spot their accounting gimmicks ahead of time?
Here’s a rundown of top shenanigans execs use(d) to cook their books. Case studies included.
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1/ Using SPVs to hide bad debts
case: Enron created multiple SPVs, then gave them $ENRN stock while the SPVs gave back case. The SPVs then used Enron stock to hedge assets on Enron's balance sheet.
➡️ Enron got to reduce write-offs & report “improved” debt-to-equity.
2/ Reporting bogus revenue
case: In 2008 Lehman Bros “sold” $50B of 💩 garbage loans to Cayman Island banks under the promise to buy them back after the fiscal/quarter ends.
➡️ This created the impression to wall street that Lehman had $50B more cash than it actually did.
3/ Round-tripping
(when 2 companies buy/sell repeatedly to inflate sales)
case i: Valeant sold Philidor (which it had the option to buy) inflated shipments of a toenail fungus drug🍄
case ii: Dynegy's energy trading biz pre-arranging many buy-sells w/ an ally at designated price
4/ Recording revenues too soon
GAAP says revenue is recognized when a good/service is delivered, not on cash payment/upfront.
case: Xerox "accelerated" $3B in service fees, boosting EBIT by $1.5B.
➡️ Top execs rewarded themselves $35M in RSUs for hitting earnings targets.
5/ “Mucking” w/ depreciation to understate expenses
case: literal muck-handler 💩💩Waste Management Inc. avoided depreciation expenses by inflating salvage value & extending the useful lives of its garbage trucks.
6/ Recording expenses too late
GAAP says expenses are recognized when incurred, not when paid in cash.
case: Nut-seller Diamond wanted to acq Pringles from P&G w/ stock. DMND had to boost its share price.
➡️Screws walnut growers by delaying payments to offset other FY'11 costs.
7/ Booking opex as capex
case: WorldCom used its cash flows statement to hide expenses by marking operating costs, which should have been opex, as capex.
➡️WorldCom inflated cash flow by $3.8 billion and posted quarters of positive performance when it really lost money.
8/ Channel stuffing
when a company ships customers excess goods that were not ordered to temporarily inflate accounts receivable
case: Krispy Kreme allegedly sent franchises 2x usual shipments at the end of financial quarters so the company could meet Wall Street forecasts
9/ Boosting income with 1-time gains
This one not illegal.
case: At quarter ends, Lehman Bros sometimes used “repo 105” an accounting trick that defines a short term loan as a sale.
➡️Cash from sales gave the appearance of lowered reported liabilities.
10/ "Big baths"
Also not illegal.
When a new exec steps in, s/he may write off all losses possible to blame previous management. This makes the company look worse than it is, giving the new exec a low starting bar on which to build future cred
11/ Hiding losses in acquisitions:
I-bankers charge stupidly high fees… how can CEOs use that to their advantage?
🤔"those 👠👜 for my wife last quarter… advisory expense!"
ex: Tech giant Olympus hid losses on securities investments for years under the cover of acquisitions.
12/ Cookie jar reserves
When execs hide income in order to report them in a future quarter when performance needs a boost
case: Pre-2002 Dell hid undisclosed payments from Intel... between 2002-2006 it dipped into the jar every quarter to cover shortfalls in operating results.
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RWAs: US-China's Chess Game for Financial Hegemony
On 6/24: 国泰君安, China’s #1 broker, jumps 300% on Hong Kong’s ok to be the first SOE stablecoin dealer.
7/17: Trump signs Genius Act.
8/1: HK follows quickly w/ Stablecoin Bill.
Among Chinese finance circles, RWA is all anyone's talking about right now.
What’s changed these last 3 months to turn tokenization from the wet dream of on-chain zealots to the queening pawn of Chinese Wall St?
And where do we go next?
👇
🧵
1/ RWA Universe
First, the basics.
What's an RWA anyways?
Literal def: a “real world asset”, aka any qty of anything wrapped as a crypto so as to:
(a) increase access or
(b) skirt KYC
My def: a synechdoche for stablecoins, aka the tug of war for dollar dominance.
Not to throw shade, but here's my corrected market map (Labubu is rapidly upping China's soft power so it can stay 🙃).
2/ Stablecoins - the only RWA that matters
Stablecoins = Currency = 99% USD-linked
i.e. the story of stablecoins is currently the story of supply and demand for US dollar; different countries' people reveal their preferences through the net inflows/outflows of USDT and USDC
What's critical to realize is that stablecoin trading volumes are still VASTLY DOMINATED BY MARKET PARTICIPANTS IN ASIA (esp. Korea, HK, China, India, Japan, Taiwan).
As shown below, USDT accounts >62% of transaction volumes and is >2.5X USDC, and is by far the most dominant coin used in APAC.
Nvidia is about to become the 1st trillion-dollar chipmaker, after surging $200B in valuation in a single day.
But when cofounders Jensen, Chris, & Curtis started the company in 1993, they had only $40K in the bank.
Here’s Nvidia’s founding story, from 0 to Taxman of AI.
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🧵/
1/ On Day 0
The idea came together over breakfast at Dennys — to bring 3D graphics computing to the burgeoning video game industry.
The risk was clear—$10M+ initial capex needed to ship the first accelerator with no pre-committed customers, no funding, and huge technology &… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ Cofounders take action
So Jensen quit his director job at chipmaker LSI Logic (now Broadcom). And Chris and Curtis quit their engineering jobs at Sun Microsystems.
Nvidia initially had no name and the co-founders named all their files NV for “next version.” When the founders… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
(with real examples, each scored #/10 on usefulness & accuracy)
👇
1/ Sourcing potential clients
score: 9/10
Prompt:
"Find 50 [insert business, eg. brokers] in [target region] that [do X, eg. offer US stocks on their investment app]?
Indicate each's website, HQ, & [other relevant info: eg. their custodial partner]. Put everything into a chart.
2/ Forming Google Dork queries to refine souring
score: 9/10
If your clients are also clients of X & if you know what terms are in a standard partnership agreement, you can Google DORK to source many more "hidden" candidate clients that have no publicly announced partnerships!