Ming Zhao Profile picture
May 1, 2021 13 tweets 5 min read Read on X
👺12 Ways to Spot a Lying CFO👺
🤝collaboration w/ @goodalexander

Stocks move on earnings, so execs will manipulate earnings. How can u spot their accounting gimmicks ahead of time?

Here’s a rundown of top shenanigans execs use(d) to cook their books. Case studies included.
👇
1/ Using SPVs to hide bad debts

case: Enron created multiple SPVs, then gave them $ENRN stock while the SPVs gave back case. The SPVs then used Enron stock to hedge assets on Enron's balance sheet.
➡️ Enron got to reduce write-offs & report “improved” debt-to-equity.
2/ Reporting bogus revenue

case: In 2008 Lehman Bros “sold” $50B of 💩 garbage loans to Cayman Island banks under the promise to buy them back after the fiscal/quarter ends.
➡️ This created the impression to wall street that Lehman had $50B more cash than it actually did.
3/ Round-tripping
(when 2 companies buy/sell repeatedly to inflate sales)

case i: Valeant sold Philidor (which it had the option to buy) inflated shipments of a toenail fungus drug🍄
case ii: Dynegy's energy trading biz pre-arranging many buy-sells w/ an ally at designated price
4/ Recording revenues too soon
GAAP says revenue is recognized when a good/service is delivered, not on cash payment/upfront.

case: Xerox "accelerated" $3B in service fees, boosting EBIT by $1.5B.
➡️ Top execs rewarded themselves $35M in RSUs for hitting earnings targets.
5/ “Mucking” w/ depreciation to understate expenses

case: literal muck-handler 💩💩Waste Management Inc. avoided depreciation expenses by inflating salvage value & extending the useful lives of its garbage trucks.
6/ Recording expenses too late
GAAP says expenses are recognized when incurred, not when paid in cash.

case: Nut-seller Diamond wanted to acq Pringles from P&G w/ stock. DMND had to boost its share price.
➡️Screws walnut growers by delaying payments to offset other FY'11 costs.
7/ Booking opex as capex

case: WorldCom used its cash flows statement to hide expenses by marking operating costs, which should have been opex, as capex.
➡️WorldCom inflated cash flow by $3.8 billion and posted quarters of positive performance when it really lost money.
8/ Channel stuffing
when a company ships customers excess goods that were not ordered to temporarily inflate accounts receivable

case: Krispy Kreme allegedly sent franchises 2x usual shipments at the end of financial quarters so the company could meet Wall Street forecasts
9/ Boosting income with 1-time gains
This one not illegal.

case: At quarter ends, Lehman Bros sometimes used “repo 105” an accounting trick that defines a short term loan as a sale.
➡️Cash from sales gave the appearance of lowered reported liabilities.
10/ "Big baths"
Also not illegal.

When a new exec steps in, s/he may write off all losses possible to blame previous management. This makes the company look worse than it is, giving the new exec a low starting bar on which to build future cred
11/ Hiding losses in acquisitions:
I-bankers charge stupidly high fees… how can CEOs use that to their advantage?
🤔"those 👠👜 for my wife last quarter… advisory expense!"

ex: Tech giant Olympus hid losses on securities investments for years under the cover of acquisitions.
12/ Cookie jar reserves
When execs hide income in order to report them in a future quarter when performance needs a boost

case: Pre-2002 Dell hid undisclosed payments from Intel... between 2002-2006 it dipped into the jar every quarter to cover shortfalls in operating results.

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More from @FabiusMercurius

May 27, 2023
Nvidia is about to become the 1st trillion-dollar chipmaker, after surging $200B in valuation in a single day.

But when cofounders Jensen, Chris, & Curtis started the company in 1993, they had only $40K in the bank.

Here’s Nvidia’s founding story, from 0 to Taxman of AI.
👇
🧵/ ImageImage
1/ On Day 0
The idea came together over breakfast at Dennys — to bring 3D graphics computing to the burgeoning video game industry.

The risk was clear—$10M+ initial capex needed to ship the first accelerator with no pre-committed customers, no funding, and huge technology &… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
2/ Cofounders take action

So Jensen quit his director job at chipmaker LSI Logic (now Broadcom). And Chris and Curtis quit their engineering jobs at Sun Microsystems.

Nvidia initially had no name and the co-founders named all their files NV for “next version.” When the founders… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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Apr 15, 2023
🔎How to Read a Term Sheet

VC term sheets are one of the most talked-about & least-understood docs in existence.
What's dirty, what's standard?

Whether you're building a company or thinking about it, as founder or employee:

Here's what the VCs know that you need to know👇
🧵/ Image
0/ the basics

Your objective: build cool shit
VC's objective: achieve maximum rate of return

Interests on both sides usually align — until they don't.

Term sheets spell out the:
(1) control rights, and
(2) economic rights

of both parties as the company goes from 0->1.
Key parts:

- Valuation is always the 1st (&only) thing people talk about.

But other subtle clauses can and do foil a high val many times over to sour deal economics.

These include:
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Read 19 tweets
Apr 9, 2023
8 Underrated ChatGPT Prompts for B2B Sales

(with real examples, each scored #/10 on usefulness & accuracy)

👇
1/ Sourcing potential clients
score: 9/10

Prompt:
"Find 50 [insert business, eg. brokers] in [target region] that [do X, eg. offer US stocks on their investment app]?
Indicate each's website, HQ, & [other relevant info: eg. their custodial partner]. Put everything into a chart.
2/ Forming Google Dork queries to refine souring
score: 9/10

If your clients are also clients of X & if you know what terms are in a standard partnership agreement, you can Google DORK to source many more "hidden" candidate clients that have no publicly announced partnerships!
Read 11 tweets
Mar 25, 2023
Dissecting the Impending CRE Crisis

Soon u'll hear a lot more on CRE.

Why? B/c US banks & PE firms are headed for real estate doomsday.
4 collapses in 11 days
$270B in CRE loans due EoY
$3B+ defaulted in March 2023 alone

What is CRE & why does it matter?
What's next?
👇
🧵/… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1/ What is CRE?
"Commercial real estate" = property for business

The US CRE industry is a $20.7 trillion market.

Core segments include:
- office
- industrial
- multifamily
- retail
- hotels
- land
Investors specialize into 3 major investment strategies:
- Core
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- Opportunistic

Core:
- low risk, "steady income" play
- safe geos (NYC, SF)
- high starting occupancy
- target IRR: 6-9%

Value add:
- medium risk, "asset appreciation" play
- investor must put in work… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
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Mar 16, 2023
BREAKING:
Another wrinkle in the regional banks / $SIVB / $SBNY saga.

Retail investors about to lose $𝟑𝟏𝟎 𝐌𝐈𝐋𝐋𝐈𝐎𝐍 𝐓𝐇𝐈𝐒 𝐅𝐑𝐈𝐃𝐀𝐘— $130M on SVB + $180M on SBNY.
But NO ONE is talking about it.

WSB mods are even censoring posts about it.

What’s going on?
👇
🧵/
1/ The News

On 3/14, National Securities Clearing Corp (NSCC) said it will no longer accept $SIVB & $SBNY exercise. Settlements will be be broker-by-broker.

What does this mean?

In short, things are about to get fucked.
Put holders are about to get WIPED.

Let me explain ...
2/ Expectation vs Reality

Normally if u buy a put and stock --> $0, u should make a BOATLOAD of $$! Right?

Wrong
Not this time
Not on $SIVB

Why?
u can only cash in gains via 2 ways:
a) sell
b) exercise

For SVB puts, depending on ur broker, u might not be allowed to do either!
Read 13 tweets
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🏦📉 SVB Crash Explained📉🏦

Silicon Valley Bank—#16 largest US bank with $212B — just crashed 60% in 1 day & fell 22% post-close. Stock halted now.

@BillAckman is calling a US gov bailout.
@peterthiel is calling a bank run.
JPM, BAC, WFC all dropped 6%.
What's next?

Is this… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
1/ How banks make money

Let's start at the beginning: SVB is a bank.
Banks make 💸💸 by taking in deposits & lending back out at higher rates.

This spread btw interest earned on loans vs paid on deposits is called NII (Net Interest Income).

NII is SVB's #1 profit source: ~73%
2/ How banks lose money

SVB's NII comes from 2 main sources:
1) interest on loans to startups
2) yield from fixed income investments (treasuries, MBS)

So SVB loses $ when:
1) startups default on debt
2) interest rates rise and SVB must sell its FI investments at a realized loss
Read 16 tweets

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