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Arieh Kovler Profile picture
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1 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The "watermark" theory was all over MAGA and QAnon in the week after the election. The theory was that Trump had ordered the US military to secretly watermarked the ballots in order to expose fraud by state officials.
Here's a few examples from 8 November showing what they imagined the "real" ballots might look like under UV light. QAnon adherents also referenced the Q phrase "watch the water", claiming it might refer to watermarks.

The irony is that QAnon dumped the watermarks theory months ago, and have spent recent days explaining how the UV light at the Maricopa "audit" wasn't looking for watermarks because that would be dumb! The UV must really be looking for something else like skin oil
The Maricopa "audit" is trying to prove theories too whacky for QAnon. Perhaps not the best sign for the way this thing is going.

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More from @ariehkovler

Arieh Kovler Profile picture
1 May
Was just about to write about Rob Petrosian, a pro-Trump TikTok account that pretends to be a White House Correspondent, posting old videos as if they're news. But @TRWerkmeister got there first. observers.france24.com/en/americas/20…
"Petrosian" has nearly 300k followers on TikTok and his videos have 4.9M likes. They're mostly old clips labelled as if they're happening now, with fake captions
The Petrosian account was behind the false claim that Biden collapsed at the White House during Easter and was hospitalised. This fake claim, complete with a video of reporters running to the West Wing, was all over MAGA networks that day.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
30 Apr
Israel's Health Ministry came up with a plan to limit numbers at Meron due to Covid. The plan was ignored by the Government. The authorities just allowed the various Hassidic sects to do their own thing. Last night's tragedy is the result.
This is from a news report yesterday, before the tragedy at Meron.

timesofisrael.com/officials-warn…
From a Haredi website 3 years ago: "Who will prevent a disaster at the Toldot Aharon bonfire lighting?". It noted the narrow exit and risk of a crush. But the authorities turned a blind eye for years until tragedy struck.

Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
29 Apr
Israel reports 41 cases of the B.1.617 lineage "Indian Variant" of the coronavirus. Of them, 24 are recent arrivals from abroad and 17 are cases of community spread. Four of the cases were in vaccinated people.
The 24 from abroad are probably unvaccinated. Of the 17 domestic cases, 5 are kids. That leaves 12 adult domestic cases, of which 4 are from the (vast majority) adult vaccinated population and 8 from the (about 13%) adult unvaccinated population.
These numbers are too small to say much. I don't know the current proportion of vaxxed/unvaxxed in daily infections to compare as a baseline. They *look* consistent with the vaccine being meaningfully effective against the Indian variant to me, though.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
28 Apr
In a rare case of the headlines underselling good news, yesterday's Public Health England finding that vaccination cuts transmission by up to 50% is actually much better than it sounds.
Why? Two reasons:
The 40-50% reduction in transmission was among THOSE WHO GOT INFECTED DESPITE VACCINATION. That's already a minority of vaccinated people. Most people don't catch the virus at all after vaccination.
Today's ONS study suggests 65% protection against infection after one vaccine dose, rising to 70% after two. So it's 50-60% **of the 30-35% who catch it** who can transmit it in the home. A much bigger reduction in transmission overall.
Read 5 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
28 Apr
Very good news for the UK: estimated 70% adult seropositivity as of 17 days ago. Given what we're seeing in Israel, I wonder if the UK might be on the cusp of a significant level of herd immunity?
In Israel, 55% of the whole population is vaccinated and another 9% are known recovered. Israel has basically reopened 7 weeks ago and cases continue to plunge. Some level of population immunity at work?
In the UK, 70% of *adults* had antibodies 2-3 weeks ago, which I think is 55% of the total population. Plus there will be kids with antibodies excluded from the ONS study. The %age of people in the UK with antibodies is probably close to Israel's.
Read 4 tweets
Arieh Kovler Profile picture
27 Apr
Israel's Cabinet just voted to appoint a Netanyahu crony as Justice Minister, despite this breaching legally-binding coalition agreements and over the objections of the Attorney-General who advised the move was unlawful.
According to the agreements, the Justice portfolio must come from Benny Gantz's half of the coalition, and cannot be discussed without his approval.
Israel hasn't had a Justice Minister for a while, because Netanyahu was blocking the appointment. The Supreme Court was due to force the appointment of a Justice Minister today.
Read 6 tweets

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