Fabian Hinz Profile picture
May 1, 2021 17 tweets 6 min read Read on X
Thread about the riddle that is Abu Zabal Factory 91: Egypt's solid propellant missile factory. Image
If you are interested in missile proliferation, there is a good chance you have heard about the 1980s Condor 2 project. In a nutshell, it was a joint program by Argentina, Iraq and Egypt to build a highly sophisticated solid-propellant ballistic missile. ImageImage
The program began in Argentina and similarly to other arms program of the country (IA-63, TAM), the system itself would be developed by Germans for local production inside Argentina. Also, Italy would have a role in the development of the propellant.
For the project, Argentina built a rocket motor factory at Falda del Carmen (-31.525 ° -64.468°) while Iraq planned to produce its motors at the Taj al-Ma’arik (33.009° 44.2037°) and al-Yawm a-‘Azim (32.810° 44.190°) plants. ImageImageImage
In the end, the program was unsuccessful. Argentina became democratic in the 1980s and decided to cancel the program under US pressure before production commenced. Iraq had its factories bombed and then dismantled by UN inspectors.
That left only Egypt. In 1988, several Egyptians in the US were caught red-handed illegally smuggling materials for the project out of the country with the help of Embassy personal. The standard narrative is that the Condor II (named Vector in Egypt) was cancelled as a result.
Or wasn’t it? A US diplomatic source claimed the program was never really cancelled but rather on life support. Similarly, the US’ Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat report listed the Vector as being under development but not flight-tested as late as 2003. ImageImage
Where did Egypt planto build its Condors? The CIA names the Abu Zaabal Company for Specialized Chemicals/Abu Zabal Factory 91 as Egypt’s solid propellant production site. And behold, there is a site displaying all the features of a solid-propellant site near the town of Abu Zabal ImageImage
But it gets better. Close comparisons show that many buildings are carbon copies of the ones at Iraq’s Taj al-Maarik site. Shown below are a Iraqi building for propellant mixing, slightly dented in Desert Storm, and its Egyptian equivalent. ImageImage
Finally, German investigative journalist Egmont Koch thankfully let me take a look at pictures secretly taken during construction providing final confirmation that this is Egypt’s Condor II factory.
Somewhat surprisingly, satellite imagery indicates the site is still active with the facility itself having been modestly expanded over the last two decades.
There are also other curious new additions within the broader perimeter of Abu Zabal 91. For example, this site featuring bermed high-bay buildings which was built between 2014 and 2016. Image
Close to the site, there is a separate facility that I suspect to house horizontal test stands. What looks like a new test stand was added between 2016 and 2017.
There are also two structures looking suspiciously like horizontal solid propellant test stands at the Jabal Hamza site, one of which was built between 2013 and 2016. Image
Egypt’s missile program is extremely secretive which makes it difficult to know what’s going on. A resumption of the Condor? An indigenous design? Something Chinese? Cooperation with KSA? Or perhaps no ballistic missiles at all and simply some artillery rocket or SAM work?
As with the upgrade of Egypt’s liquid fuel test stands, only time will tell what this is all about.
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More from @fab_hinz

Jun 25
One interesting fact about the MOP: The US appears to have tested it against a real underground facility just 30 kilometers south of the site of the world’s first nuclear weapons test. Thread from a recent OSINT side quest. 1/10 Image
The US military has been understandably reluctant to share detailed information about live tests of the MOP. However, several press releases do mention that MOP tests took place at White Sands Missile Range (WSMR) in New Mexico. 2/10 Image
WSMR is a vast range that also includes the Trinity Site, where the US detonated the ‘Gadget’ in 1945. While the area is huge, publicly available environmental impact studies contain detailed maps of its sub-sites and exhaustive information on how munitions testing affects bats and insects. 3/10Image
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Read 9 tweets
Apr 13
People are once again talking about this Sudanese military facility with some claiming it’s a large IRGC-built underground facility. Well, due to recent developments in Sudan’s civil war, we now have a much clearer picture of what this place actually is. Thread 1/13 Image
I first found this facility located in the Jabal Garri area North of Khartoum back in 2018 when mapping the Sudanese defense industry. The site stood out both for its size and the lack of any official information on it. 2/13
At the time, satellite imagery couldn’t confirm the site's exact purpose. However, safety features, like specialized lightning arrestors and earthen berms, strongly indicated involvement in the production and handling of explosive materials. 3/13
Read 13 tweets
Nov 30, 2024
That is correct. Quick thread on what we know about the al-Safira facility. Image
First is the complex that I call al-Safira 1 (35.986° 37.4052). This is/was a production complex for solid propellant rocket motors powering Syria's versions of the Fateh 110 and Zelzal. It's also likely some of Syria's and Hezbollah's longer range artillery rockets were produced there (M302).Image
As the security situation around al-Safir deteriorated during the civil war, the regime tried to build a new solid propellant production line near Masyaf only to see it bombed by Israel repeatedly.
isis-online.org/isis-reports/d…
Read 11 tweets
Sep 16, 2024
This recent Reuters report about Russia mass-producing a new strike drone called Garpiya is highly interesting but maybe a bit convoluted. What it seems to boil down to is that Russia has established a second Shahed production line in Izhevsk. Thread 1/14 reuters.com/world/europe/r…
Let's begin with the factory itself. Reuters states that the new UAVs are produced by Almaz-Antey subsidiary Kupol in a former cement factory the company acquired. It also mentions that a video showing UAV production matches the facility. 2/14 Image
The linked video is the video of a Shahed 136 production line that emerged a few months ago and was widely believed to show the known Shahed factory in Alabuga. 3/14
Read 14 tweets
Jul 19, 2024
A few quick thoughts on the alleged Houthi drone that crashed into Tel Aviv. 1/9 Image
The Houthis have claimed that they used a new UAV called Yafa for this particular strike. According to the Houthis, the Yafa has the ability overcome enemy defenses and cannot be detected by radar. 2/9
In general, Houthi claims are a mixed bag. Sometimes they are accurate, sometimes they are exaggerated, sometimes they are just straight-up fabrications. In general, their factual claims have to be taken with a much bigger grain of salt than Iran's or Lebanese Hezbollah's. 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Jun 5, 2024
The Houthis just unveiled their new 'Palestine' ballistic missile which they claimed to have used against Eilat for the first time on June 3. A few notes on the type and the likely origin of the missile. 1/10 Image
The Palestine is a precision-guided solid propellant missile. This alone is quite noteworthy. So far, the ballistic missiles used by the Houthis against Israel appear to all have been less advanced liquid propellant missiles without terminal guidance. 2/10 Image
The Houthis have previously shown mockups of advanced Iranian precision-guided solid propellant missiles like the Fateh 110 (300km), Tankil (500km) and Kheybarshekan 1 (1450km) on parades. However, it was not proven whether they actually had the real missiles. 3/10 Image
Read 10 tweets

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